German Elections & Politics

[mountvernon]

It's not unusual for protest or extremist parties to perform much better with men than with women, and to do especially well with young men.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that the Nazis are finally kicked out of the state parliament again (4.95%)



Also: CDU wins all but 1 FPTP districts (only Leipzig-2 was won by the Left Party candidate) and all PR/list districts.

The "Spiegel" has a clickable map with party strength by district (2014/2009):

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-sachsen-alle-ergebnisse-a-986694.html#startTab=1

Erststimme = FPTP district winner
Zweitstimme = PR/list district winner

[Yeahsayyeah]

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Most of the civil rights movement was in some way associated with the Lutheran Church. See the late prime minister of Sachsen-Anhalt, Reinhold Höppner (SPD), as an example, also the Alliance90 and Green types. Right Wing is meant as a set of politicial opinions. They were socially conservative, stressing religious values, wanted reunification subito, free market economy etc., while those groups that formed Alliance 90 and to some extent even the Social Democrat Party (SDP; sic!) at the beginning wanted a reformed GDR with democratic socialism

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Very important, as this (and the Democratic Peasant Party) was were most of the members and the ressources came from. With the exception of the top tier of the national level, that was ousted as a scapegoat, many politicians at district (Bezirk) and muncipal (Kreise und Gemeinden) level had unhurted careers, e.g. many CDU mayors and Landräte stayed in office after 1990, though of course the district and muncipial parties had been an fully integrated part of the GDR political system, and their role had not been opposition.
The German unification and the popularity of Kohl and some flagship imports like Kurt Biedenkopf overshadowed this, of course, so they all claim to have been purified and made an 180 degree turn from what they said before October 1989.

And only the SED/PDS was stripped of its property. CDU and FDP were allowed to keep it or at least sell it.

[Unimog]

NPD still at 5% - thats 5% too much.

wrong!

it's only 4,95 too much.

fine.

[Tender Branson]

The NPD might as well cry for a recount, but because a recount can only be requested in precincts with obvious counting errors and not statewide (nor because of a really close result), their request will go nowhere ...

[Zanas]

Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ? If they steal their voters, don't they also steal their ideology and policies ? The general perception I had so far was that they were a more acceptable far-right alternative. Is that so ?

Oh and of course, my pessimistic prediction of SPD overtaking die Linke was way off. It can apparently stem from two things : 1. I always tend to forget that in the East die Linke is a well established party of management, and it's rather the SPD that's the newcomer ; and 2. the Saxon SPD seems to suck friggin balls.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.

[Zanas]

Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.

Yes I got that. But will they do things differently in the Landtag ? For example, if they end up one day drawing CDU to its right in a CDU-AfD coalition (not likely for now, I know), is it not worse than a basically harmless NPD with a bunch of MPs opposing everything and unable to influence policies ?

What is NPD's record in Landtags anyway ?  

[GAworth]

Will the CDU now have to seriously go shopping for a new junior coalition partner? The FDP look to be in terrible shape and I am pretty sure the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle forever in "grosse coalitions."

[Zanas]

Will the CDU now have to seriously go shopping for a new junior coalition partner? The FDP look to be in terrible shape and I am pretty sure the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle forever in "grosse coalitions."

What makes you pretty sure of that ? It's not like they can hope anything better in the coming 10 years or so... Plus they happen to actually get some things passed, like the minimum wage.

[GAworth]

Will the CDU now have to seriously go shopping for a new junior coalition partner? The FDP look to be in terrible shape and I am pretty sure the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle forever in "grosse coalitions."

What makes you pretty sure of that ? It's not like they can hope anything better in the coming 10 years or so... Plus they happen to actually get some things passed, like the minimum wage.

I agree with you about the next few years but they have been the alternative party of Government, not the junior party. The FDP have worked with the CDU for decades, I very much doubt seeing the SPD doing that.

[Franzl]

I'd love to see black-green again like in my state, but I doubt Tillich will want to go with such a small majority.

[mountvernon]

=
How important was the CDU block party in the creation of the "new" CDU in the East?
[/quote]
Very important, as this (and the Democratic Peasant Party) was were most of the members and the ressources came from. With the exception of the top tier of the national level, that was ousted as a scapegoat, many politicians at district (Bezirk) and muncipal (Kreise und Gemeinden) level had unhurted careers, e.g. many CDU mayors and Landräte stayed in office after 1990, though of course the district and muncipial parties had been an fully integrated part of the GDR political system, and their role had not been opposition.
The German unification and the popularity of Kohl and some flagship imports like Kurt Biedenkopf overshadowed this, of course, so they all claim to have been purified and made an 180 degree turn from what they said before October 1989.

And only the SED/PDS was stripped of its property. CDU and FDP were allowed to keep it or at least sell it.
[/quote]

Who tended to join the CDU block party under the GDR?  Was it stronger in some areas or with some social classes more than others?  I've read that the SPD (outside of Brandenburg) has been hurt a lack of "grassroots" in the East.  Is this because they didn't have a block party to build upon?  (I know that the Soviet-Zone SPD was forcibly incorporated into the SED).

[ingemann]

Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ? If they steal their voters, don't they also steal their ideology and policies ? The general perception I had so far was that they were a more acceptable far-right alternative. Is that so ?

Oh and of course, my pessimistic prediction of SPD overtaking die Linke was way off. It can apparently stem from two things : 1. I always tend to forget that in the East die Linke is a well established party of management, and it's rather the SPD that's the newcomer ; and 2. the Saxon SPD seems to suck friggin balls.

Yes when the more "moderate" extremist parties are the more viable ones, they tend to pull voters more than ideology from other extremist parties. People tend to adapt their ideology to the parties, who are closest to them.

[solarstorm]

Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.

... and Putin!

[solarstorm]

Interesting. There seems to be an east-west divide in terms of AfD support:
Görlitz, Bautzen and the Dresden exurbs have the most AfD voters.
Even more interesting: Even the NPD map displays the same pattern.
As a consequence, the CDU and the Linke are much stronger in the West, the former however in none of the three cities.
The SPD shows a similar pattern as the Linke, however they are stronger in the rural areas on the border to Thuringia.
The Greens and the are only strong in the cities, and so are the Pirates (providing you can call them strong).
The FDP has the strongest support in the middle sector of Saxony, but its support is by and large equally distributed.

PS: I love colors.

[buritobr]

Do you think that the FDP is getting smaller because the CDU is becoming almost like a new FDP? I read that, in recente years, the CDU has been becoming more free marketeer and less Christian. Is it true?

[solarstorm]

Do you think that the FDP is getting smaller because the CDU is becoming almost like a new FDP? I read that, in recente years, the CDU has been becoming more free marketeer and less Christian. Is it true?

It depends on what you understand by "less Christian". The CDU has certainly become less conservative, but it still is a theocratic party.
In terms of market economy, the CDU has positioned itself as pro-social market; it is now where it used to be under Kohl's government.

To answer your question: No. After the near defeat in 2005, the CDU, which had been thatcheresque back then, has been trying to establish itself as an anti-FDP, which is supposed to take care of employees and, to a lesser extent, of the poor (in order to mulct the SPD of voters, obviously successfully).

[Yeahsayyeah]

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I once had sociodemographic numbers for that, but can't find them at the moment. Of course, at least since the mid fifties the block parties did not differ much in their official ideology and many people who went to a block party did so show "involvement", but avoid SED membership
Mostly, the CDU as a block party was meant to integrate Christians into the GDR political system. Very prominent in Saxony is the integration of catholic Sorbs from Upper Lusatia (Tillich's background, they still get up to 75 per cent, there).
As I remember the class/strait profile was not that clear. They also had a fair share of workers (to the discontent of the SED), craftsmen, peasants and intelligentia alike, more from a rural and small town background. LDPD and NDPD (their nationalist stance was abolished already in the fifties and then parties were competing for the same groups) had a higher share of intelligentia and there members were more urban and less religious. DBD was at its foundation meant to organise small peasants, and after they were all in cooperatives was competing for them against the SED.

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Basically this. The newly-founded SDP/SPD of the GDR started as a tiny group of intellectuals, often with a Christian background, and with almost no resources. "Party of pastors and engineers" was a nickname given to them. On the other hand CDU started with huge manpower, many resources to build upon (and were able to keep or at least sell much of it).
The second point is the general political climate that shaped the 1990 Volkskammer and Landtag elections. Kohl's "reunification as soon as possible", "all will be better off", "There will be flourishing landscapes" were the slogans of the day. Lafontaine gruntling about costs and risks (though he was right) was not very appealing at the time.
Thirdly, there was of course a personal and competence factor that reshaped this from state to state and over time. While Biedenkopf was a well-respected statesmen (before senile stubbornness and corruption charges kicked in), the first CDU-led governments in Thuringia (delayed by the import of Bernhard Vogel who was seen as competent, though leading abysimal cabinets), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt had many corruption and other scandals and were not seen as too competent, so the SPD was able to catch up a bit.
Maybe the most important factor is, of course the growth of the PDS throughout the nineties. As the SPD was unwilling to integrate former SED members, those who wanted to be in politics stayed at the PDS that actually turned out to be left-wing social democrats with some rhetorical and symbolic nostalgia gimmicks. As they are strong with demographics that are normally the most important ones for the SPD in the West (skilled blue collar and white collar workers) there was not that much of a room to grow for the SPD.
Organised labour is also tiny in the east and SPD has to compete with the PDS/Left party, there.

[mountvernon]

I've noticed that, despite the East's famously low level of religious observance, people with church connections seem to have played a disproportionate role in post-unification politics.  This ranges from Merkel and Gauck on the national level to Manfred Stolpe and Christine Lieberknecht at the state level.   What explains this pattern?  The close ties between the Lutheran Church and the dissident movement?  With civil society so weak in the East, was church life the main place to find politically talented and aware people untainted by SED membership?  I know that the post-Communist GDR government was very pastor-heavy.

I have also read that, in the 1990s, religiously observant Easterners (of both confessions) backed the CDU at even higher rates than their Western counterparts.  The main explanation given was that maintaining a religious affiliation (even a nominal one) could be one manifestation of opposition to the GDR regime.  Has this continued?  As far as I can tell, "political Lutherans" run the gamut from Greens to the right-wingers who backed the DSU.  

I'd also expect church involvement in Eastern politics to decline over time, given that religiosity continues to fall, and that more conventional means of entering political life have emerged.

[Yeahsayyeah]

As church membership is low it seems natural, that the conviction of the members is higher. I would not go to far to call church membership per se an act of opposition towards the GDR. Open oppression of religion stopped in the mid fifities and at least in the seventies and eighties the church-state-relations were as relaxed as they could be under a general climate of mutual suspicion. But of course membership in the church was never welcomed by the state and as it became less important as a societal factor in everyday life there was no reason to attend church, baptise your children, give them religous education etc. if you weren't a true believer. So the main difference between East and West seems to be, that in the West you needed and need a reason to go, even if you not truly believe (as can be seen now as the numbers of leaving members in Germany rise at the moment after the Limburg bishop's mansion scandal and some changes of the church tax levy system) in the East you needed a reason to stay, so the actual church membership here is more devoted and more socially conservative.

Concerning te recruitment of politicians in the East I think you hit the point. Those church circles were a relationship network that was seen as quite untouched by the regime. Especially the Lutheran and Reformed churches (Is there any word to translate the German "Evangelische Kirche" into English without provoking misunderstanding?) had been a protection screen for many opposition groups, and was the only part of civil society that was politically active that the GDR government was not really able to control. So people with church backgrounds started with a high reputation, had a relationship network working, had often been politically active before 1989 and had the support of the western parties as well (Let aside that pastors are supposed to know how to speak before a public crowd). So they probably started with advantages, but the phenomenon of pastor politicians really seems to be constrained to the generation that emerged in 1989/90, although more or less devoted Christians still seem to be overrepresented in CDU, SPD and Greens, though ( I'm not sure about FDP and AfD.)

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile we have 2 new polls for the Sept. 14 state elections:

Brandenburg (FGW for ZDF)

33% SPD (no change compared with 2009)
25% CDU (+5)
21% Left (-6)
  8% AfD (+8)
  6% Greens (no change)
  7% Others (incl. the FDP) (-7)

The FDP got 7.2% in 2009.

Thüringen (FGW for ZDF)

36% CDU (+5)
26% Left (-1)
16% SPD (-3)
  8% AfD (+8)
  6% Greens (no change)
  8% Others (incl. the FDP) (-9)

The FDP got 7.6% in 2009.

...

Compared with previous polls, the 8% for the AfD is up from 5-6% and the highest level yet.

Looks like they are getting ca. 10% as well in these elections.

[Tender Branson]

Brandenburg (Infratest dimap for ARD)

31% SPD (-2 compared with 2009)
24% CDU (+4)
22% Left (-5)
  9% AfD (+9)
  6% Greens (nc)
  2% FDP (-5)
  6% Others (-1)

Thüringen (Infratest dimap for ARD)

34% CDU (+3)
28% Left (+1)
16% SPD (-3)
  7% AfD (+7)
  5% Greens (-1)
  4% NPD (nc)
  3% FDP (-5)
  3% Others (-2)

[mountvernon]

. So they probably started with advantages, but the phenomenon of pastor politicians really seems to be constrained to the generation that emerged in 1989/90, although more or less devoted Christians still seem to be overrepresented in CDU, SPD and Greens, though ( I'm not sure about FDP and AfD.)
[/quote]

Does the Linke face generational challenges as well, given that younger voters have no memory of the GDR?  As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?

[Middle-aged Europe]

As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?

I think it's more of a problem that the Left is anti-Treaty of Lisbon, anti-NATO, anti-sanctions against Russia, anti-German troops in Afghanistan, and anti-couple of other things in foreign policy which are generally supported by SPD/Greens.

As soon as you form a SPD-Green-Left coalition government and something in the world happens which requires a decision by the German government, said government will probably fall apart and be replaced by a Grand coalition again.