German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

1st projections:

Brandenburg (ARD)



Brandenburg (ZDF)



Thüringen (ARD)



Thüringen (ZDF)

[DL]

Would the SPD prefer to continue the grand coalition or would they prefer to form a red-red-green coalition.

[Tender Branson]

CDU-SPD "grand coalition" with a majority of only 1 seat in Thüringen. Red-Red-Green 1 seat short of a majority. Well this is going to be chaos.

CDU/SPD/Greens is an option then.

[Franzl]

CDU-SPD "grand coalition" with a majority of only 1 seat in Thüringen. Red-Red-Green 1 seat short of a majority. Well this is going to be chaos.

CDU/SPD/Greens is an option then.

Wonder if this is the first time a "grand coalition" might be without a majority in Germany?

[Tender Branson]

AfD continues to overpoll on election day.

Polls said 9% in BB, they got 12%.

Poll said 8% in TH, they got 10%.

[Franzl]

Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

[Tender Branson]

According to the 1st ZDF-Hochrechnung, both CDU/SPD and Left/SPD/Greens now have a 1-seat majority in Thüringen (45/88 seats).

[Cassius]

Question here; how are the CDU going to deal with the AfD? Its just that now they've been robbed of their usual 'right-wing' coalition partners, the only options that they have left are Grand and Black-Green coalitions. To my mind, this presents a potential problem, as these coalitions (I'd expect), are more likely to be geared towards the political centre (as with Merkel's current Grand Coalition), thus meaning that this might alienate the more right-wing CDU voters, who could be tempted to flirt with the AfD (weakening the overall CDU vote). Will the CDU come to some sort of accommodation with the AfD in the future (which might assuage any concerns that parts of their base might have), or will it continue to block their entry into government? I could be totally and utterly wrong here, but from what I can see, a problem seems to be emerging .

[Middle-aged Europe]

Question here; how are the CDU going to deal with the AfD? Its just that now they've been robbed of their usual 'right-wing' coalition partners, the only options that they have left are Grand and Black-Green coalitions. To my mind, this presents a potential problem, as these coalitions (I'd expect), are more likely to be geared towards the political centre (as with Merkel's current Grand Coalition), thus meaning that this might alienate the more right-wing CDU voters, who could be tempted to flirt with the AfD (weakening the overall CDU vote). Will the CDU come to some sort of accommodation with the AfD in the future (which might assuage any concerns that parts of their base might have), or will it continue to block their entry into government? I could be totally and utterly wrong here, but from what I can see, a problem seems to be emerging .

I guess we could see something similar to the development of the SPD-PDS relations during the 90s. At first, any cooperation between SPD and PDS was categorically ruled out. Then, some local SPD politicians started to break that taboo on the state-level, first in Saxony-Anhalt in 1994 when a SPD minority government had the backing of the PDS in the state parliament, then with the first official SPD-PDS coalition in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in 1998. A similar pattern could develop with CDU and AfD on the state level.

Assuming that the AfD doesn't start to fall apart at some point (which is still a scenario which could very well happen), we could have some CDU politician who badly wants to remain/become minister-president saying "screw it, let's work with the AfD" maybe four years down the road or so.

But we would still be a loooong time away from any CDU-AfD cooperation on the federal level.

[Tender Branson]

Gains/Losses relative to 2009 (ARD):





Seats (ARD):

44-44 tie between CDU/AfD and Left/SPD/Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

For the record, the FDP is now reduced to representation in six out of 16 state parliaments. That's still two more state parliaments than the Pirate Party. Yay!

[Tender Branson]

For the record, the FDP is now reduced to representation in six out of 16 state parliaments. That's still two more state parliaments than the Pirate Party. Yay!

With Hamburg coming up in February, it will likely be 5 soon because they are not polling well there either.

[jeron]

Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

[politicus]

Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

Let's hope not.

[Beezer]

Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

Back then they didn't have a natural enemy in the AfD though. Moreover, nobody is talking about the FDP anymore while the political class is incessantly discussing the AfD-phenomenon, giving the latter added legitimacy.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

THÜRINGEN









...

BRANDENBURG

[Middle-aged Europe]

Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

They were still represented in the Bundestag at that time though. And like Beezer said, they didn't have a competitor like the AfD.

One shouldn't underestimate the severe effects of being ousted from the Bundestag. Among other things, it means that for all intents and purposes they're almost financially bankrupt. I think there was once a news report that they had to fire half of their staff in their national headquarters following the 2013 Bundestag election or something like that.

No votes means no money and no money means no personnel and no ressources. It already showed in this years' European election when they had very cheap and basic looking campaign posters (and relatively few of them compared to other parties as well). And for each state election they're defeated in, they will get even less money from the state in the future.

The PDS/Left managed to make a comeback after being ousted from the Bundestag in 2002, but it was a different situation. They literally received a transfusion of fresh blood in form of the WASG and Oskar Lafontaine and they still had a pretty strong base in the east (including state governments they formed with the SPD) even without Bundestag representation.

The Greens also managed to make a comeback following their ouster in 1990. However, their defeat back then wasn't really the result of a general downward trend. That year they had made the idiotic decision of campaigning against unification of Germany when everybody wanted exactly like that. I guess the historic unfication of a country (and all effects for a poltical party it may bear) counts as a very special circumstance in itself. I mean some even say that unification is what Helmut Kohl got re-elected in 1990 in the first place. And technically the Greens weren't even fully ousted from Bundestag, since at least the East German Greens made it to parliament that year through a special clause in the electoral law.

[Franzl]

So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 18%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.

[Zanas]

So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 13%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.

Yeah, well, I don't think die Linke qualifies as far-left in this context, maybe even in any context. And does the AfD actually qualify as "far-right" ? Wouldn't that be the NPD ? I would see the AfD more as "right-wing" or "hard-right", not "far-right".

[Franzl]

So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 13%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.

Yeah, well, I don't think die Linke qualifies as far-left in this context, maybe even in any context. And does the AfD actually qualify as "far-right" ? Wouldn't that be the NPD ? I would see the AfD more as "right-wing" or "hard-right", not "far-right".

I agree with you, but my version sounded more dramatic.

[Zanas]

So in Thüringen, the far-left and far-right receive a total of 40%, while red-green are at 13%, and black-yellow (lol) get 35%.

Yeah, well, I don't think die Linke qualifies as far-left in this context, maybe even in any context. And does the AfD actually qualify as "far-right" ? Wouldn't that be the NPD ? I would see the AfD more as "right-wing" or "hard-right", not "far-right".

I agree with you, but my version sounded more dramatic.

Oh I also like to play the dramatic game from time to time. Especially if I lose or win big time.

[Diouf]

The Social Democratic voters in Thüringen prefer SPD to continue governing with CDU in a grand coalition.

[Diouf]

The SPD in Brandenburg can choose whether to continue their coalition with Linke which dropped from 27.2% to 18.6% or govern with CDU which went from 19.8% to 23.0%. I haven't found a poll yet which show the preference of the SPD voters.

Brandenburger Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen / Freie Wähler is probably entering parliament in Brandenburg due to the former SPDer Christoph Schulze, who looks like he will be able to retain the Teltow-Fläming III constituency in his new colours.

[solarstorm]

Here are the CD results of Thuringia:



The CDU wins 34 of 44 seats.

The Linke wins 9 districts: in Erfurt, Jena, Gera and Nordhausen.
The MP candidate of the Linke, Bodo Ramelow, lost his district (Erfurt III) to former finance minister, justice minister and Chief of Staff Marion Walsmann.

The only SPD districts belongs to Gotha and is won by Matthias Hey.
Here are the CD results of Brandenburg:



SPD: 29
CDU: 10
Linke: 4
BVB/FW: 1

The blue color denotes a win by Christoph Schulze of the Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen / Freie Wähler ("Citizens' Movement / Free Voters) in Teltow-Fläming III. He used to be a member of the SPD and a member of the Green faction (not the party). He has been a member of the Brandenburg Landtag since 1990.
This CD win by a minor results in a exemption of the 5% threshold for the BVB/FW, which gets 3 seats as a consequence.

[njwes]

What position would the Freie Wähler members take generally--generic conservative/center-right?