German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

[Franzl]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

Unless they implode Pirates style.

[politicus]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

Unless they implode Pirates style.

They seem to have a much more solid basis. They are filling an actual void in the German party system.

[solarstorm]

AfD will crash in Hamburg for sure, they profit the most from EU. I'm not sure about Bremen's demographics but keep in mind these are two free cities we are talking about and not regions. AfD took votes of Die Linke in the urban centres of the two states here so I can only see the making inroads in Bremen where Die Linke did well 10 years ago.

Here are the AfD results of previous Hamburg and Bremen elections:

Hamburg:

Federal election: 4.2%
European election: 6.0%
Local elections: 4.5%

Almost 20% of the Hamburgers voted for the - now abolished - Law and Order Offensive Party (short: "Schill Party") back in 2001. Its chairman, judge Ronald Schill, was known as Richter Gnadenlos ("Judge Merciless").
So yes, the AfD will probably enter the Hamburg Bürgerschaft.
Bremen:

Federal election: 3.7%
European election: 5.8%

Bremen has a special electoral law;
in order to enter the Bürgerschaft a party needs 5% either in Bremen City (or whatever it's called in English) or in Bremerhaven. The law-and-order party Bürger in Wut ("enraged citizens") made it twice into the parliament thanks to this rule. But their votes are likely to turn towards the AfD next year.
So yes, the AfD will obviously enter the Bremen Bürgerschaft.

[solarstorm]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

The Senate is the executive branch in Hamburg, Bremen and Berlin.
I'm dubious about the AfD entering the Hamburg Senate...

[Beezer]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

Unless they implode Pirates style.

The Pirates were a fad, mainly supported by young voters. The AfD on the other hand - as mentioned a couple of posts above - fills a void that's been left by both the CDU and FDP. Moreover it's full of season political veterans who won't make the same mistakes that the Pirates committed. I also think the party will now become a more attractive option for more moderate disillusioned conservative voters who up until now might have been put off by the general image of the AfD as some sort of lunatic fringe party. After winning around 10% of the vote in 3 successive state elections it's obvious to everyone that this isn't a far-right Neo-Nazi outfit so those more moderate activists might give the party a try, in the process moving its center of gravity even further away from the right-wing populist fringe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Let's not forget that Hamburg gave Richter Gnadenlos almost 20 percent of the vote not too long ago.

That was 12 days after a couple of former Hamburg residents crashed two planes into the World Trade Center though.

I'm not saying that the AfD won't make it to the state parliament there. But I don't see how Schill's election result from 2001 is any useful indicator here. Their chances are as good there as in any other West German state.

(If anything Ronald Schill's recent tenure in the Big Brother house should be reminder for any Hamburgian voter, not to support right-wing populists again. )

[palandio]

...
I also think the party will now become a more attractive option for more moderate disillusioned conservative voters who up until now might have been put off by the general image of the AfD as some sort of lunatic fringe party. After winning around 10% of the vote in 3 successive state elections it's obvious to everyone that this isn't a far-right Neo-Nazi outfit so those more moderate activists might give the party a try, in the process moving its center of gravity even further away from the right-wing populist fringe.

My perception is quite different. Winning 10% or not does not prove anything regarding Neo-Nazi or not. (I think they are not Neo-Nazis, except for maybe some single members.)
The 2013 AfD federal campaign was mainly about being anti-Euro to the extent that many called them a single issue party. Other proposals were p.e. allowing asylum seekers to work and so on, only (seemingly) moderate proposals, to make the AfD seem like a socially acceptable, reasonable choice.
Since then a broader part of their program has become visible (which of course was already there last year). The AfD has become a platform for all kinds of reactionaries, ultra-conservative economists and the Christian Right.
The regional chapters in the East, e.g. Saxony, are the most right-leaning ones. Being the only ones with parliamentary representation for the moment (except for the EP), they will gain even more public attention and influence within the party.
I do not think that this will necessarily harm the AfD's prospects. There is enough space for a right-wing reactionary party in Germany, though I still wonder whether all of their voters understand the AfD's economic agenda and if they understood, whether they would still vote AfD.

[Beezer]

But I don't see how Schill's election result from 2001 is any useful indicator here. Their chances are as good there as in any other West German state.

My post was in response to someone who argued that the AfD won't be all that successful in Hamburg. The primary point I was trying to convey is that even in a relatively affluent left-leaning city state like Hamburg, right-wing populist parties can do well...extremely well actually. Will the AfD repeat Schill's result and get 20%? Probably not. But they should have a pretty decent shot at making it into parliament considering that in the past Hamburgers have shown their affinity for a "law and order" party.

BTW, since you mentioned 9/11...Schill's party was polling at around 15% well before Atta and his pals flew into the WTC.

[swl]

Where dis AfD votes come from?

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http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.nl/

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Is there any word on whether the Thuringia government will be CDU-SPD or Linke-SPD-Grune yet?

[jaichind]

The blue color denotes a win by Christoph Schulze of the Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen / Freie Wähler ("Citizens' Movement / Free Voters) in Teltow-Fläming III. He used to be a member of the SPD and a member of the Green faction (not the party). He has been a member of the Brandenburg Landtag since 1990.
This CD win by a minor results in a exemption of the 5% threshold for the BVB/FW, which gets 3 seats as a consequence.

Why does FW get an exemption from the 5% threshold?   I know that SSW in Schleswig-Holstein  get an exemption because of the Danish minority protection clause.  But what is the reason for FW here and how come they get such an exemption in Brandenburg.  And if so do they get the same exemption in other parts of Germany.

[sirius3100]

They got the exemption because Christoph Schulze won a FPTP seat. At the federal level you need 3 FPTP seats so that the 5% treshold isn't applied (basically assuring that the CSU will always get in the Bundestag) but in Brandenburg one seat is enough.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is there any word on whether the Thuringia government will be CDU-SPD or Linke-SPD-Grune yet?

No.

[Franzl]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

[Yeahsayyeah]

They got the exemption because Christoph Schulze won a FPTP seat. At the federal level you need 3 FPTP seats so that the 5% treshold isn't applied (basically assuring that the CSU will always get in the Bundestag) but in Brandenburg one seat is enough.

This.

Interestingly, only Brandenburg, Berlin, Schleswig-Holstein (1 seat) and Saxony (2 seats) have those Grundmandatsklauseln in their state electoral law.

[Zanas]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?

[politicus]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?

A credible SPD with a genuine plan for what to do with the country?

[Zanas]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?

A credible SPD with a genuine plan for what to do with the country?

HAHAHAHAHAHA !!!!!!!!!!!!!! I just died.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.

[sirius3100]

It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.

Alliance?

Also Forsa tends to always have the poll results which are most newsworthy. Once elections near the are more or less in line with the other pollsters, but I don't really trust Forsa results when the next election is far away.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.

If you mean the Alternative, analysis of the recent Bundestag, European, and state elections have shown that the AfD significantly drains votes from the CDU. Former CDU voters usually constitute either the largest or the second-largest group of AfD supporters in all these elections.

At the same time, the CDU has also made gains from other parties though. Primarily from the FDP, in fact. So, we're witnessing a bit of a realignment.

[politicus]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

So centre-right + right = 54% and centre-left + left is 39%, that leaves 7%. Where do they go?

[Tender Branson]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

So centre-right + right = 54% and centre-left + left is 39%, that leaves 7%. Where do they go?

2% Pirates, 1-2% Freie Wähler, 1-2% NPD, 2% other small parties