German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

Any link to results as they come in?

Should be this site: http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen/wahlen-in-hamburg/

[Beezer]

Avg. of the election predictions made over at Wahlrecht.de

http://www.wahlrecht.de/wahltippspiele/hamburg-2015/ausgabe.html

SPD: 45.9
CDU: 19.0
Gr: 11.3
FDP: 5.7
Left: 8.0
AfD: 5.7

[Beezer]

Turnout @ 5pm: 52.3 % (2011: 58.5%, note that the eventual turnout stood at 57.3% so the 2011 #s overestimated turnout).

[jaichind]

*SPD 46.5%, MERKEL'S CDU 16% IN HAMBURG: ARD CITES EXIT POLLS
*ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY PROBABLY WINS SEATS IN HAMBURG: ARD
*FREE DEMOCRATS 7%, GREENS 12%, LEFT 8.5% IN HAMBURG: EXIT POLLS

[Beezer]

FDP:7, AfD: 5.2

[jaichind]

*ANTI-EURO ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY POLLING 5.5%, ARD SAYS

[jaichind]

Looks like SPD will miss absolute majority

[jaichind]

Interesting how exit poll FDP is doing better than pre-election surveys and AfD exit polls are not doing better than pre-election surveys like expected.

[jaichind]

55% vote participation vs. 57% in 2011

[jaichind]

Interesting how exit poll FDP is doing better than pre-election surveys and AfD exit polls are not doing better than pre-election surveys like expected.

Agreed. But I really thought that the CDU would do at least slightly better, however, they got absolutely destroyed.

Same here.  Looks like the CDU vote share went over to AfD and to some extent FDP.  SPD in that sense did well as I expected it to lose some votes to AfD but it looks like that did not take place.  Anyway the revival of the FDP plus the rise of AfD means that SPD will not have absolution majority.

[Tender Branson]

FDP-Legslide !

[jaichind]

If these exit polls hold up then this is easily the worst ever results for CDU in Hamburg on top of the 2011 results which was the worst ever.

[Beezer]

FDP voter movement:

[Beezer]

First "Hochrechnung" won't be available until 7:15-7:30 local time because of Hamburg's ridiculous 10 vote electoral system.

[jaichind]

No first "Hochrechnung" until 7:15-7:30 local time because of Hamburg's ridiculous 10 vote electoral system.

Please explain what that means ? Does this mean a vote has to be counted 10 times before they release that vote as counted ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incredibly poor result for the CDU.

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that Hamburg elections are special:

Every voter has 10 votes.

* 5 votes for the state list
* 5 votes for the district candidates

Either you can allocate all 5 votes on each ballot paper to the same party/candidate, or you can distribute your votes to different parties. For example, you can allocate 3 votes to the SPD, 1 vote for Left and 1 for Greens. Or 2 votes CDU, 2 votes SPD, 1 vote AfD - and so on ...

The same for the district ballot paper.

...

This election system is the reason why first predictions by ARD and ZDF should be taken with a grain of salt.

Vote counting will take until midnight (for the fast-track system that will show the seat distribution).

The actual votes will only be counted tomorrow and the final result will be out tomorrow evening !

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, yes, but the last Hamburg state election was an SPD landslide as well. Normal service has very much reasserted itself.

[Beezer]

More exit poll results:

- The economy and personality (Scholz) were big reasons for the huge SPD win.
- 23% of all Hamburgers (lol) think the city has too much refugees, however, 59% of all AfD voters think that.

For comparison: These were the 2013 German federal election results in Hamburg:


The SPD only narrowly beat the CDU by 0,2% in one of their biggest strongholds (that they even managed to lose in 2009). Right now, they are defeating the CDU by 30 points. THAT is what I call an improvement.

Federal elections are a different animal though (kind of like the midterms and presidential elections). The SPD has 9 different state premiers compared to the CDU's five. Yet the SPD is trailing the CDU by close to 20 points at the national level.

[solarstorm]

Only 16% of the Hamburgers split the ticket.
The younger the voters, the more did they split their votes.

[Beezer]

Agreed, it shows you how big the difference between the Hamburg SPD and the national SPD (which is really doomed) is. It doesn't change the fact that the CDU dominance in Germany will fade...

God willing...

[Tender Branson]

Mayor Scholz (SPD) gets a 83% (!!!) approval rating.

He gets at least 70% approval from the voters of all parties (and 98% approval from SPD-voters).

[Beezer]

Mayor Scholz (SPD) gets a 83% (!!!) approval rating.

He gets at least 70% approval from the voters of all parties (and 98% approval from SPD-voters).

And just like Merkel he is bland and dull as hell. Let that be a lesson to all aspiring politicians in Germany...

[solarstorm]

The 16- and 17-year-old were allowed to vote for their first time.
5% of them voted Pirates.
Also the FDP fared better than average.

[Beezer]

Hochrechnung (ARD television):

SPD: 47
CDU: 16
Greens: 11.9
FDP: 7.1
Left: 8.6
AfD: 5.3