German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

Hochrechnung (ZDF television):

SPD: 46.7
CDU: 16
Greens: 11.6
FDP: 7.3
Left: 8.8
AfD: 5.4

[Beezer]

Lucke, completely at ease during an interview:

[Beezer]

AfD should be safely in now (ZDF)...

SPD: 46.7
CDU: 15.9
Greens: 11.7
FDP: 7.4
Left: 8.5
AfD: 5.5

[jaichind]

The results shown in

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article137442106/Bei-dieser-Hamburg-Wahl-stehen-einige-Premieren-an.html

shows that Others are up 0.9% relative to 2011 which makes no sense if you add up the changes in other parties relative to 2011.  I looked into this and it seems in 2011 the Pirate Party was not part of Others but in 2015 it is.   So Others using 2015 definitions should really be down 1.2% and not up 0.9%

[Tender Branson]

885 of 1.780 precincts counted (or 316.960 valid ballots, out of 1.299.411 eligible):

47.0% SPD
16.1% CDU
10.9% Greens
  8.3% Left
  7.0% FDP
  6.6% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.8% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% NPD
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

http://www.wahlen-hamburg.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahl=963

[Tender Branson]

AfD does a little better than what the exit-polls show:

Currently 6.6% and they will probably end up between 6 and 6.5% in the end.

[Beezer]

AfD @ 6.0 percent according to latest ZDF projection.

[Tender Branson]

Roughly 62% of the expected vote has now been counted.

[Tender Branson]

AfD @ 6% looks most accurate, because the district of Altona is the least-counted so far and the AfD gets only 5.1% there.

[jaichind]

Looks like SPD+Green+Left might not net that much on top of 2011 and might end up losing a bit.    Also both AfD and FDP is doing better than pre-election polls which is a surprise.  I would think one of the two will do better than pre-election polls but for both to do so is a surprise.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems to come in at ca. 54-55%, a minus of 3% compared with 2011.

[Tender Branson]

77% counted:

46.2% SPD
16.2% CDU
11.6% Greens
  8.3% Left
  7.3% FDP
  6.3% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

[Tender Branson]

Looks like SPD+Green+Left might not net that much on top of 2011 and might end up losing a bit.    Also both AfD and FDP is doing better than pre-election polls which is a surprise.  I would think one of the two will do better than pre-election polls but for both to do so is a surprise.

Well, the FDP did better than expected because Katja Suding is a great lead candidate (with hot legs !).

And the AfD might or might not have benefitted from the Copenhagen attacks, who knows ? Maybe it was also just their usual underpolling ahead of an election.

[jaichind]

Latest ZDF projections has FDP 7.4 and AfD at 6.1.  I always saw AfD being able to do well by cannibalizing FDP votes which is why I thought it was not possible for both to exceed pre-election polls.  Getting votes from CDU did not look likely to me giving how low they went in 2011 and that CDU is still riding high nationally.  Seems like that is what took place with FDP and AfD both gaining from CDU.   

[Tender Branson]

Latest ZDF projections has FDP 7.4 and AfD at 6.1.  I always saw AfD being able to do well by cannibalizing FDP votes which is why I thought it was not possible for both to exceed pre-election polls.  Getting votes from CDU did not look likely to me giving how low they went in 2011 and that CDU is still riding high nationally.  Seems like that is what took place with FDP and AfD both gaining from CDU.   

Voter streams for AfD (2011 voters => 2015 AfD vote):



The 2015 AfD-vote consists mostly of former voters of "other parties" (remember that the NPD only has 0.3% right now, but 0.9% in 2011).

Followed by former CDU, SPD and non-voters.

[Vosem]

 7.3% FDP

Fantastic! Very excited for the revival.

[Tender Branson]

93% counted:

45.8% SPD
16.0% CDU
12.0% Greens
  8.5% Left
  7.4% FDP
  6.1% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

[Tender Branson]

93% counted:

45.8% SPD
16.0% CDU
12.0% Greens
  8.5% Left
  7.4% FDP
  6.1% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.9% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% NPD
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

my prediction:

46.0% SPD (-2.5%) *nailed it
18.0% CDU (-4.0%) * off by 2.0
12.0% Greens (+1.0%) *nailed it
  8.5% Left (+2.0%) *nailed it
  5.5% FDP (-1.0%) *off by 2.0
  5.5% AfD (+5.5%) * off by 0.5
  4.5% Others * off by 0.5

Turnout: 55% (-2%) *nailed it

[Franzl]

lol St. Pauli

Linke 29,1
SPD 26,0
Grüne 24,7
Piraten 4,5
Die Partei 4,2
CDU 4,0

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

lol St. Pauli

Linke 29,1
SPD 26,0
Grüne 24,7
Piraten 4,5
Die Partei 4,2
CDU 4,0

Counter-Poland.

[Middle-aged Europe]

lol St. Pauli

Linke 29,1
SPD 26,0
Grüne 24,7
Piraten 4,5
Die Partei 4,2
CDU 4,0

Counter-Poland.

Actually, St. Pauli is the Kreuzberg of Hamburg.

There seems to have been a big shift from the SPD to the Left Party though. In 2011, the SPD won 37% and the Left 20% there.

[solarstorm]

One of the most famous candidates that could profit by the complex, but interchangeable voting system could be Inge Hannemann, who has been labeled "Hartz IV rebel" by the tabloid press.
She became famous nationwide after she got suspended from her office in a job center because she refused to impose sanctions on her unemployed clients. Hannemann is also an advocate of the idea of the unconditional basic income.
She is independent, but has been a member of the Altona district parliament for the Left since last year.
Now she is seeking membership of the Hamburg Bürgerschaft by running on the state list of the Left - on number 13.
The Left is being allocated 11 seats at this juncture. There's a realistic chance of her benefiting from the possibility of vote splitting.

Update: She did it. The complex voting system truly helped her.

[Franknburger]

A few more district highlights:

Kleiner Grasbrook (the single precinct district in the port area that was won by the Linke in the 2013 federal election):
Linke     31.9 (+12.6)
SPD       19.2 (-16.9)
Grüne    15.7 (- 3.4)
PARTEI  11.4 (+ 6.1)
Pirates   11.0 (- 1.0)
CDU        3.2 (- 2.1)
FDP        2.6 (+ 1.0)
AFD        1.6

Veddel (just next door, also in the port area, highest share of foreigners/ voters with migration background) - 2 precincts:
SPD       38.2 (- 4)
Linke     21.9 (+6)
Grüne    15.4 (--)
Pirates    5.8 (-7.3)
PARTEI   4.7 (+2.1)
AFD        4.4
FDP        3.6 (+1.9)
CDU       3.1 (- 2.4)

Billbrook (industrial area with dispersed housing, includes largest housing of asylum-seekers, AFD stronghold in the 2013 federal election) - 2 precincts:
SPD      48.9 (-2.5)
AFD      13.9
CDU     10.6 (- 6.3)
Linke     8.9 (--)
Pirates   6.0 (+1.5)
FDP       4.8 (+2.0)
Grüne    4.1 (-2.4)
NPD       0.0 (-5.3)->AFD collecting the right-wingers!

Billstedt (not quite as sh**tty as nearby Billbrook, but still very much blue collar/ low income) - 42 precincts
SPD     55.4 (-1.5)
CDU     13.1 (-7.0)
AFD     10.1
Linke    7.9 (+0.5)
Grüne   5.0 (-0.4)
FDP      4.6 (+0.5)

Sternschanze (next to St.Pauli, close to the University. alternative, but under gentrification pressurce) - 4 precincts:
Linke    29.1 (+ 9.3)
SPD     26.7 (-11.2)
Grüne  26.6 (+ 1.9)
Pirates   4.8 (- 0.7)
FDP       3.7 (+ 0.9)
PARTEI  3.6 (- 0.4)
CDU      3-0 (- 1.1)
AFD       1.2

Rahlstedt (middle-class suburb, mix of individual housing and appartment blocks, Olaf Scholz'[and my] home district, most populous district of Hamburg - this is where elections are decided. Narrowly won by the CDU in 2013) - 65 precincts
SPD      52.9 (+0.2)
CDU     16.7 (- 6.9)
Grüne    7.3 (+0.3)
AFD       7.3
FDP       6.6 (--)
Linke     5.8 (+0.5)
Caution - almost 30% vote-by-mail not included here. Vote-by-mail in Rahlstedt has similar trends, but CDU substantially stronger (23.5) and SPD (48.4), but also Grüne (6.1) and Linke (4.5) weaker. AFD is slightly stronger in vote-by-mail (7.6) than on the ballot box.


Harvestehude (posh inner-city area at the Alster lake, close to the University, but also large appartment blocks further away from the lake - traditional FDP stronghold) - 15 precincts
SPD     37.8 (-3.6)
CDU     17.8  (-5.4)
FDP     16.8 (+3.9)
Grüne  13.2 (-0.1)
Linke     7.6 (+2.3)
AFD      3.7

Nienstedten (even more upper-scale area on the bank of the Elbe - in the 2013 federal election, it voted 50% CDU, and 11% FDP) -  5 precincts:
SPD      36.2 (+1.6)
FDP      22.9 (+5.6)
CDU     19.9 (-12.0)
Grüne   11.9 (+1.4)
AFD       4.6
Linke     2.2 (+0.2)

Tatenberg (one of the marsh villages to the east, lots of greenhouse horticulture, strongest CDU district [53.2] in the 2013 federal election) - 1 precinct
SPD     44.2 (+7.7)
CDU     28.7 (-10.7)
Linke     9.2 (+3.5)
Grüne    7.0 (- 5.7)
AFD       4.7
FDP       2.7 (+0.2)
 

[solarstorm]

Franknburger. I missed you so much.
I was about to ask where you've been, as a Hamburger like you could attribute to this topic firsthand.

[Boston Bread]

I'm guessing right-wing parties didn't win a single precinct this time? That would make up for the fact that both AfD and FDP got in.
And I prefer SPD-Grune over an SPD majority so I'd call this a good election!