German Elections & Politics
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:36:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34 35 36 ... 176
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655449 times)
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #750 on: February 17, 2015, 05:36:27 PM »

CDU



gray1: 22.5%
gray2: >15.9%
gray3: <15.9%
gray4: 8.6%
That CDU map would look sexier with a few more shades...
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #751 on: February 17, 2015, 07:32:03 PM »

That CDU map would look sexier with a few more shades...
Is fifty shades of grey sexy enough for you, Hal Jam?
Logged
Oak Hills
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,223
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #752 on: February 17, 2015, 08:48:46 PM »

2.) The SPD's concept for the 2024 Olympic Games bid foresees building the Olympic Stadium on the Kleine Grasbrook, on an area that currently (until 2019) is still under Czech administration (Treaty of Versailles). It isn't difficult to imagine what that would mean traffic-wise to the adjacent areas. Not really helping the SPD here.

What?!
Logged
Franknburger
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,401
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #753 on: February 17, 2015, 10:11:19 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2015, 11:15:31 PM by Franknburger »

2.) The SPD's concept for the 2024 Olympic Games bid foresees building the Olympic Stadium on the Kleine Grasbrook, on an area that currently (until 2019) is still under Czech administration (Treaty of Versailles). It isn't difficult to imagine what that would mean traffic-wise to the adjacent areas. Not really helping the SPD here.

What?!
Yes, you read correctly (more or less):
The port area was leased to Czechoslovakia for 99 years pursuant to Article 363 of the Treaty of Versailles. It is not Czech territory, but under Czech administration. After the Czech transport operator CSPL (Elbe shipping line) went bankrupt in 2002, it is hardly used anymore, and negotiation between Hamburg and the Czech Republic is on-going on terminating the lease before it officially expires in 2028 (I erred on that date in the cited post).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moldauhafen


The map above shows the planned location of the Olympic Stadium, the Olympic Village and the press centre (area in green). Further housing for athletes shall be provided on cruise ships to be stationed on the Elbe. Zhe HafenCity lies to the north, Veddel just to the east, and the populated stretch of Kleiner Grasbrook is to the south, on the basin bank that stretches west from the city rail station marked by the white "S" in the green circle.
Hamburg's bid is quite popular in the city (except, of course, in Veddel, Grasbrook, Wilhelmsburg and the like), and is seen as one of the reasons for Scholz gaining re-election. The concept is in fact quite convincing, since it involves minimal investment (all public transport is already available, as well as many sports facilities, the Olympic village provides sought-after downtown housing, etc.). The neighbouring states shall be involved as well - sailing in Travemünde or Kiel, handball in Kiel and Flensburg, Beach Volleyball in Timmendorf, cross-country horse riding in Luhmühlen (as already in 1972), etv.  

The German Olympic Committee will decide in mid-March, whether they will support Hamburg or Berlin (which is also preparing a bid), and whether they will go for 2024 or for 2028. Since the IOC has a German president, Thomas Bach, the chances for Germany securing the 2024 or 2028 games aren't bad.    

EDIT: A concept outline (in German) can be found here:
http://www.hamburg.de/contentblob/4420632/data/anlagen-gesamtpaket.pdf
New construction shall include the Olympic Stadium (Athlethics), a Sports Hall (Basketball, Gymnastics), the Olympic swimming arena, a rugby stadium, a canoe slalom trail (Wilhelmsburg),  gun and bow shooting grounds, and a Beach Volleyball Arena (Entenwerder Island, Rotenburgsort, just off the right end of the map). Of these, the Olympic Stadium shall afterwards be converted into a smaller stadium for athletics and American Football, the Olympic Hall shall be rebuilt  into a cruise terminal. The swimming arena shall serve as public batn, the rugby stadium for amateur soccer.

Boxing, wrestling, weight-lifting, fighting etc. shall be done in the trade-fair halls (Sternschanze). Rowing and canoeing infrastructure is available in the marshlands, horesriding grounds in Groß Flottbek, golf on Gut Kaden north of Hamburg, tennis on the Hamburg Masters facilities (Rothenbaum) . Cycling infrastructure is also available but requiring upgrading.
Soccer shall be played in Bremen, Wolfsburg, Hannover, Braunschweig and Rostock, with the final in the Hamburg soccer stadium. Field hockey shall be played in the St. Pauli Stadium, Handball in Kiel and Flensburg, with the final in the O2 Arena in Hamburg, and Volleyball in Schwerin (final in one of the Hamburg trade fair halls).

EDIT 2: Some "before and after stuff" -viewed from the norh-west. Veddel is at the top left and centre of the pictures, the stretch of current Kleiner Grasbrook housing at the top right. Bottom left on the first picture you see the part of the HafenCity currently under construction.


Logged
Franknburger
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,401
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #754 on: February 19, 2015, 08:15:27 PM »

Even though it is kind of  comparing apples and oranges, I found it instructive to do some comparison between the 2013 federal and the 2015 state elections in Hamburg. Note that they are based on ballot-box performance only, which, at over 30% vore-by-mail in each of the two elections, may here and there blur the picture.



Participation: 2015 participation was 14.4 absolute points (some 20% relatively) lower than in 2013. The decrease was not uniform across city districts, and also less characterised by socio-economic diffences than might be expected. Socially strong districts along the lower Elbe, the Alster, and in the north-east, expectedly, show the highest participation rates, and low absolute and relative decreases. However, in some lower and middle class suburbs, notably the SPD stronghold of Langenhorn in the NNW, participation was also comparatively high. The same applies to many marsh villages in the south-east, and also agriculturally-structured Francop in the south-west. These districts are among those where the SPD (but in some marsh villages also AFD!) gained strongest, and the CDU lost most, respectively. Apparently, in some locations Olaf Scholz managed to motivate his base to vote, or even turn out voters which abstained in 2013. As concerns the marsh villages, also southeastern Harburg district, this appears to apply even more to the AFD. Conversely, in the western part of the upper-middle-class Walddörfer in the NE, participation was somewhat lower than expectable, and the CDU lost over proportion.

SPD: In the western inner city, the SPD only improved slightly against 2013. The same applies to Wilhelmsburg and Harburg proper, traditional SPD strongholds. On the Veddel and the Kleine Grasbrook, they even lost, presumably due to the envisaged Olymics bid. Several of the blue-collarish areas, such as Horn and Billstedt to the east, and Steilshoop (their strongest 2013 district) gave the SPD moderate gains in the 10-15% range. Nothing to compain about, of course, but not decisve. In absolute terms, most of the SPD improvement stems from the suburbs - both the lower and upper-middle-class ones. And relatively to 2013, they gained especially in the upper middle-class districts along the lower Elbe and to the northeast. Thus, 2015 wasn't just preaching to the converted (though this clearly also played a role), it was first and foremost recuperating lost ground in the (upper) middle class.
The most spectacular SPD gain, however, ocuured in the western marsh villages - interestingly, not only at the expense of the CDU, but also of the Greens. This is where the Olympic rowing and canoeing competitions are envisaged to take place. Unlike on the Veddel and the Grasbrook, locals in the marsh villages seem to be quite ethuastic about potentially hosting parts of the Olympic Games.

CDU: I hope the maps don't look counter-intuitive. The six shades of grey they entail display what remained of the CDU's 2013 glory - the darker, the more. In fact, of course, the 2015 election was a disaster for the CDU. They didn't just go down in every district, they lost at least 5%, and a quarter of their 2013 share, in each district. There isn't a single district where the CDU isn't the biggest loser, both in absolute and in relative terms, of all the parties that were on the ballot.
In absolute terms, the CDU appears to have been able to best contain their losses in the (western) inner city. However, there wasn't much to lose there from the beginning. Thus, what at first glimpse looks like a very modest 5.2% loss on Kleiner Grasbrook, is, in relative terms, a 62% decline from 8.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2015. In Sternschanze, they even managed to go down by 75%, from 11.4% in 2013 to 2.9% in 2015. Thus, compared to the already meagre 2013 vote share, the CDU has literally almost been annihilated in the western inner city.
The CDU was also devastated in the posh suburbs on the Lower Elbe, where they not only lost massively to the SPD, but also to the SPD. In Nienstedten, e.g., where they reached 49.5% in 2013, they lost 29.5 percentage points (SPD up 17, FDP up 12. The picture is similar, though partly a bit less dramatic, in the upper-middle class Walddörfer in the northeast, and in the marsh villages.
However, posh suburbs and marsh villages tend to be rather sparsely populated - the size on the map overstates their demographic weight. What really killed the CDU was losing almost 20 points, or 55-60% of their 2013 share, in each of the more densely populated middle-class suburbs like Niendorf and Schnelsen to the NW, Rahlstedt to the ENE, and Bergedorf in the ESE. Here, the CDU loss corresponds with similar, though slightly lower SPD gains, while some 2-4% went to the FDP.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #755 on: April 19, 2015, 03:51:54 AM »

Finally !

A poll for Bremen has been released, which has state elections next month.

Infratest Dimap:



The current government is SPD-Greens.
Logged
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #756 on: April 20, 2015, 04:18:38 AM »

I find the FDP's resurrection particularly disgusting, provided that it's only due to a pair of legs and a new logo...
Logged
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,637
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #757 on: April 23, 2015, 02:31:52 PM »

I find the FDP's resurrection particularly disgusting, provided that it's only due to a pair of legs and a new logo...

And it's getting even worse:

They need to surpass the 5% threshold in only one of the Land's two cities, Bremen and Bremerhaven.
Consequently, they're likely to make it into the Bremen Bürgerschaft, even if they receive less than 5% of the overall vote.

That's, btw, how the right-wing BIW managed twice to move into the parliament of Bremen.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #758 on: May 02, 2015, 06:05:54 AM »

The final 2 Bremen polls for the state election next Sunday are out.

Average of the ARD/ZDF polls:

37.0% SPD (-1.5% compared with 2010 election)
22.5% CDU (+2.0)
15.5% Greens (-7.0%)
  8.5% Left (+3.0%)
  5.5% FDP (+3.0%)
  5.0% AfD (+5.0%)
  3.0% BiW (-0.5%)
  3.0% Others (-4.0%)
Logged
solarstorm
solarstorm2012
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,637
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #759 on: May 02, 2015, 12:02:47 PM »

The final 2 Bremen polls for the state election next Sunday are out.

Average of the ARD/ZDF polls:

37.0% SPD (-1.5% compared with 2010 election)
22.5% CDU (+2.0)
15.5% Greens (-7.0%)
  8.5% Left (+3.0%)
  5.5% FDP (+3.0%)
  5.0% AfD (+5.0%)
  3.0% BiW (-0.5%)
  3.0% Others (-4.0%)

Sorry, I don't believe that poll. The FDP is way too strong and the AfD is way too weak.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #760 on: May 09, 2015, 09:55:49 AM »

My prediction for the Bremen state election tomorrow:

35.7% SPD
22.6% CDU
14.8% Greens
  8.9% Left
  6.6% FDP
  5.1% AfD
  3.2% BiW
  3.1% Others

Turnout: 55%
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #761 on: May 09, 2015, 11:20:22 AM »

ugh, goddamn zombie FDP
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #762 on: May 09, 2015, 11:30:21 AM »

Katja Suding's blonde "twin sister" in Bremen (on the way to lead the revival of the FDP there):

 

 
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,625
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #763 on: May 09, 2015, 02:12:24 PM »

What is dead can never die, but rises again, harder and stronger #FDP4ever
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #764 on: May 10, 2015, 09:04:38 AM »

Turnout is on track for a new record low in the Bremen state election:

45-50%

Polls close in 2 hours.
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 787


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #765 on: May 10, 2015, 09:38:50 AM »

It seems that turnout now has caught up with the 2011 numbers, a bit. Weather was supposed to be better in the afternoon, so many voters probably have been taking that into account scheduling their planned voting time. Looks more 52ish now.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #766 on: May 10, 2015, 11:01:44 AM »

SPD      35.2
CDU     23
Green   15.5
FDP       6.5
AfD        5
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #767 on: May 10, 2015, 11:03:53 AM »

I wonder how BIW did
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #768 on: May 10, 2015, 11:04:37 AM »

1st ZDF projection:



1st ARD projection:

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #769 on: May 10, 2015, 11:51:07 AM »

"Citizens in Rage" (BiW) will definitely get a seat once again, because they are at 6% in Bremerhaven, despite only polling 3% in all of Bremen state:

Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #770 on: May 11, 2015, 10:26:54 AM »

Mayor Jens Böhrnsen has announced that he will resign because of the disappointing election result of his party. The SPD Bremen has received the lowest share of votes since 1946 (just under 33 %). The turnout is at an all-time low, too (about 50 %).

The votes won't be fully counted until Tuesday or even Wednesday because the electoral system of Bremen is so complicated.
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #771 on: May 12, 2015, 02:23:43 AM »

Big news from the AfD. As expected the different factions are at war with one another with Bernd Lucke - dispelling rumors that he was about to leave the party - now calling for some sort of decision at a party conference on the party's future path. Makes you wonder though how the party, short of passing some sort of major program/manifesto, can discard a certain ideology at a conference.
Logged
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #772 on: May 12, 2015, 11:22:56 AM »

I suppose in Bremen that SPD-Grünen should be the natural coalition to rule ? Or is it another Grosskoalition ?
Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #773 on: May 12, 2015, 01:56:40 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2015, 02:36:21 PM by Sozialliberal »

I suppose in Bremen that SPD-Grünen should be the natural coalition to rule ? Or is it another Grosskoalition ?

Both a red-green and a grand coalition are possible options. A grand coalition seems more likely now because both the SPD and the Greens lost many votes, whereas the CDU gained votes. The SPD has an interest in preventing the CDU from growing even more and perhaps replacing it as the largest party in Bremen. The smaller party in a coalition tends to lose more votes or win less votes than the larger party.  The SPD and the Greens also had some quarrels when they were in government.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #774 on: May 13, 2015, 04:10:28 AM »

Interesting new poll by FORSA for Baden-Württemberg (which will vote early next year):

38% CDU
26% Greens
20% SPD
  4% FDP
  4% Left
  4% AfD
  4% Others

Because FDP, Left and AfD are all below the 5% threshold, there's a chance the current Green-SPD coalition may continue their work.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34 35 36 ... 176  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.091 seconds with 13 queries.