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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655217 times)
Zanas
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« Reply #775 on: May 13, 2015, 11:24:40 AM »

Interesting new poll by FORSA for Baden-Württemberg (which will vote early next year):

38% CDU
26% Greens
20% SPD
  4% FDP
  4% Left
  4% AfD
  4% Others

Because FDP, Left and AfD are all below the 5% threshold, there's a chance the current Green-SPD coalition may continue their work.
With what we've seen recently, I think we can fully expect AfD to cross the threshold though, and perhaps the FDP as well in their oh-so-undesirable come-back. Die Linke OTOH doesn't seem like a good fit for B-W.
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #776 on: May 13, 2015, 02:00:24 PM »
« Edited: May 13, 2015, 02:05:28 PM by Sozialliberal »

The votes of the Bremen election are fully counted now. 42 seats are needed for a majority.

SPD, 32.8 %, 30 seats
CDU, 22.4 %, 20 seats
Greens, 15.1 %, 14 seats
The Left, 9.5 %, 8 seats (That's a lot for a state of the former West Germany.)
FDP, 6.6 %, 6 seats (Wow, 666! Cheesy)
AfD, 5.5 %, 4 seats
Citizens in Rage, 3.2 %, 1 seat (They got 6.5 % in Bremerhaven.)
Die PARTEI/The Party, 1.9 % (their best result by far in an election at state level)
Pirate Party, 1.5 %
Animal Welfare Party, 1.2 %
NPD, 0.2 % (They candidated only in Bremerhaven, where they got 1.4 %. It's always nice to see them do badly.)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #777 on: May 27, 2015, 01:47:15 PM »

FDP surges to 7% in a new federal poll by FORSA, while CDU/CSU drop below 40%:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm
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freefair
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« Reply #778 on: May 27, 2015, 09:53:27 PM »

Interesting new poll by FORSA for Baden-Württemberg (which will vote early next year):

38% CDU
  4% FDP
  4% AfD
Oyoyoy. Should be plenty of loan votes there!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #779 on: June 26, 2015, 05:16:17 AM »

CDU/CSU-FDP would now be possible again at the federal level, because the FDP has risen to 5% and the AfD dropped back to 4% in the latest polls:

GMS Poll

42% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
10% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  4% AfD
  6% Others

47-43 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.
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Beezer
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« Reply #780 on: July 04, 2015, 12:22:31 PM »

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #781 on: July 05, 2015, 04:09:53 AM »

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #782 on: July 05, 2015, 08:18:57 AM »

so basically AfD becomes the new NPD? (more than it already was, i mean)
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« Reply #783 on: July 06, 2015, 03:34:42 AM »

Hans-Olaf Henkel - as former president of the Federation of German Industries, former AfD deputy chairman, and current MEP one of the most prominent members of the AfD's liberal wing - has left the party.

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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #784 on: July 06, 2015, 05:24:02 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2015, 05:27:37 AM by Lyndon Bane Johnson »

Well, in any case it's a plausible scenario that the remaining AfD could become a party of conspiracy theorists who blame Muslims, "the media", the Green Party, the EU, and the American government for everything from trains who run behind schedule to chemtrails in the sky.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #785 on: July 06, 2015, 08:06:32 AM »


care to explain?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #786 on: July 06, 2015, 12:05:27 PM »


Because the AfD with Petry is now more like Germany's FPÖ-lite. The NPD is much more extreme.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #787 on: July 06, 2015, 12:14:53 PM »

The new Die Republikaner then.
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Diouf
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« Reply #788 on: July 06, 2015, 03:41:08 PM »

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #789 on: July 06, 2015, 03:54:37 PM »

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Because, for historical reasons, an anti-immigration, anti-EU party is unpalatable to 90% of the population.
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Diouf
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« Reply #790 on: July 06, 2015, 04:10:25 PM »

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Because, for historical reasons, an anti-immigration, anti-EU party is unpalatable to 90% of the population.

Well, even if that was true, they would still have a niche in which they were clearly the most palatable party.
I think those historical reasons are becoming just that, history.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/majority-germans-reject-immigration-outside-eu-312282
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MaxQue
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« Reply #791 on: July 06, 2015, 04:41:42 PM »

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Because, for historical reasons, an anti-immigration, anti-EU party is unpalatable to 90% of the population.

Well, even if that was true, they would still have a niche in which they were clearly the most palatable party.
I think those historical reasons are becoming just that, history.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/majority-germans-reject-immigration-outside-eu-312282

Well, then, why Die Republikaners never had any success?
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #792 on: July 07, 2015, 12:42:29 AM »

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Three times in state parliaments (2x Baden-Württemberg, once Berlin), once in European parliament isn't "never had any success". The fate of the Reps was marred by the two big i of German right wing parties: incompetence and infighting. The infighting, of course, has to do with German history and the basic question weither or at least how near they wanted to be to outright Nazis. It's the same basic question that is splitting the AfD now.

This was twenty to twenty-five years ago, though. So opinions in the population can shift over time. European integration was much less dense, then. The potential of the Volksparteien, especially of the SPD to integrate broad parts of the population (socially and politically) is in decline. (Related to the CDU this is overshadowed by the Merkel effect).


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Diouf
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« Reply #793 on: July 07, 2015, 05:40:07 AM »

Frauke Petry has been elected leader of the AfD. Does this spell the end of the party's economic liberal wing?

In the long run, it could mean the end of the AfD.

There has been talk that deposed party leader Bernd Lucke - who essentially got primaried for being too moderate - and his followers will now leave the AfD and form their own party.

Why the end?
Will they not basically just be a standard European anti-immigration and anti-EU party now? And a more coherent one.

Because, for historical reasons, an anti-immigration, anti-EU party is unpalatable to 90% of the population.

Well, even if that was true, they would still have a niche in which they were clearly the most palatable party.
I think those historical reasons are becoming just that, history.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/majority-germans-reject-immigration-outside-eu-312282

Well, then, why Die Republikaners never had any success?

Yeahsayyeah outlines it pretty well above.

Antipathy towards immigration and the EU does not mean that any anti-immigration and anti-EU party will straight away hit 20 %. The party itself needs to be seen as at least somewhat competent and coherent. If Lucke and his followers leave the party now, it seems to me that the party will become more coherent and therefore stand a larger chance of long-term success. Whether Frauke Petry and her allies are more or less competent than Lucke will be seen now.

Several other conditions matters of course. Is the government popular or not? How high on the agenda is immigration? How strong is party loyalty? The government seems to have high approval ratings at the moment, which makes an explosive growth for an anti-system party less likely, but no one knows how long that will last. The CDU remains very popular, at least at the national level, but as far as I recall vote transfers from CDU to AfD was in the top2 of incoming vote transfers for almost all AfD elections so far, so if the government and/or CDU becomes unpopular, I would think that there could quickly be 3-5 % move from CDU to AfD.

In Sweden for example, polls and research had long showed that attitudes towards immigration and refugees were basically not different from those in Denmark, but without an anti-immigration and anti-EU party like in Denmark. Therefore, it is no great surprise, that when a somewhat competent and coherent party emerged, the governments turned unpopular, and immigration and refugees came higher up the agenda, then the party surged from being outside Parliament to 20+ % in 5 years.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #794 on: July 07, 2015, 06:39:35 AM »

Lucke and his followers are probably going to form their own political party. In addition, Pegida has announced their attention to run in the upcoming state elections. That's a lot of competition on the right side of the CDU. In the end we could end up with three separate forces each receiving roughly 3% of the vote.
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Beezer
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« Reply #795 on: July 07, 2015, 08:32:14 AM »

Of course historical data doesn't necessarily tell us much about the future chances of success of a right-wing populist party. Nonetheless far right extremism remains as stigmatized as ever in (west) German society so I think the assertion that a populist party on the right can only do well if it credibly disassociates itself from the extrem right remains valid as well. Add to that the fact that infighting - as mentioned - tends to also scare away voters and you'll understand why the chances of the AfD entering the Bundestag in 2017 decreased substantially on sunday.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #796 on: July 07, 2015, 01:15:00 PM »

AfD members of the European parliament who have left the party in the recent days:

- Joachim Starbatty
- Hans-Olaf Henkel
- Bernd Kölmel
- Ulrike Trebesius

I imagine Bernd Lucke will join them soon. This leaves only Beatrix von Storch and Marcus Pretzell. Both are considered representatives of the "national conservative" wing and are therefore likely to stay with the party. But the AfD's representation in the European parliament will be reduced from 7 to 2 as a result of Frauke Petry's election to party chairmanship.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #797 on: July 07, 2015, 02:59:08 PM »

Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #798 on: July 07, 2015, 03:12:16 PM »

Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!

Frauke Petry said that she wants to stay in the ECR.
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Diouf
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« Reply #799 on: July 07, 2015, 03:39:03 PM »

Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!

Frauke Petry said that she wants to stay in the ECR.

Where will the ex-AfD MEPs go?
Just become independents? Hard really to see them in any of the other groups.
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