German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

By 2017 not even a black-green coalition may be possible. Guess more GroKo for Germany then...

[Beezer]

If the FDP crept past the 5%-threshold, neither CDU/Greens, CDU/FDP nor SPD/Greens/Left would be able to form a majority with the shares as shown in the poll above. Wonder if the CDU could be enticed to go for the Jamaica option in such a scenario.

[jaichind]

By 2017 not even a black-green coalition may be possible. Guess more GroKo for Germany then...

Assuming both AfD and Linke are in, then there is no alternative to Grand Coalition again unless someone is willing to take Linke or AfD into the ruling alliance which for now seems unlikely.

[palandio]

Average of the six most recent polls (Allensbach 10/20, Forsa 10/21, FGW 10/23, Infratest dimap 10/23, Emnid 10/24, INSA 10/27):

CDU/CSU 37.3% (-4.2% compared to the 2013 federal election)
SPD 24.9% (-0.8%)
Left 9.4% (+0.8%)
Greens 10.4% (+2.0%)
FDP 4.8% (no change)
AfD 7.3% (+2.6%)
Others 5.8% (-0.4%)

CDU/CSU+SPD 62.2% (24/69 federal council seats by 2015)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP 52.5% (11/69)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD 49.4% (6/69 [Bavaria lol])
CDU/CSU+Greens 47.7% (11/69)
=== Majority (FDP in): 47.1%+ ===
SPD+Greens+Left 44.7% (40/69 [including Danes])
=== Majority (FDP out): 44.7%+ ===
CDU/CSU+AfD 44.6% (6/69)
CDU/CSU+FDP 42.1% (6/69)
SPD+Greens+FDP 40.1% (32/69 [including Danes])

Jamaica could be dangerous for all involved parties. Plus it is far from a (not necessary, but useful) majority in the federal council. Rhineland-Palatinate might change, Baden-Württemberg might change, but if so then quite likely from Green-Red to GroKo, which would still make the SPD necessary in the federal council.

Tomorrow we will have a new Forsa poll. Forsa is often the pollster that is most interested in producing headlines, so let's see!

[Beezer]

Well, nothing major. CDU down by 2 (36), Left and AfD down by 1 each (9 and 6 respectively), FDP up by 2 (6). Then again these guys also had the FDP at 7 a couple of months ago.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I would be very grateful for the link : )
 

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

[Sozialliberal]

Sigmar Gabriel, who is currently Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, has said that he wants to stand as the SPD candidate for the chancellorship in the next election. It is expected that Merkel will stand for a fourth term, though she hasn't announced it yet. There is a strong feeling of resignation within the SPD. Their bigwigs openly say that they have as good as lost the election already. Although Merkel's popularity has been damaged by her asylum and migration policies recently, I can't see how the SPD would take advantage of this. Can you imagine the SPD nominating someone who criticizes Merkel for being too lenient with refugees/migrants? I can't. It's crazy how much Merkel has changed the CDU. Black-Green is a likely coalition option now. That would have been unthinkable during the Kohl years! Merkel and Gabriel aren't very different ideologically. Merkel could be in the SPD, and Gabriel, who is a typical "Third Way" politician like Gerhard Schröder, could be a CDU member as well.

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU ... worst result since 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

Good.

Merkel and CDU/CSU deserve all their recent troubles and collapsing poll numbers.

After all, Merkel was elected by the German citizens/voters to serve their interests and not the interests of the millions of migrants, which Rabenmutti now suddenly wants to crowd into the country.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Oh yeah, because "the Germans" are a monolithic bloc with monolithic interests and opinions...

Link for the newest Seehofer saber shaking: http://www.bild.de/bildlive/2015/18-seehofer-43180494.bild.html

[MaxQue]

CDU/CSU ... worst result since 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

Good.

Merkel and CDU/CSU deserve all their recent troubles and collapsing poll numbers.

After all, Merkel was elected by the German citizens/voters to serve their interests and not the interests of the millions of migrants, which Rabenmutti now suddenly wants to crowd into the country.

To represent all German voters, not only the racists.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If the CSU go turncoat, I hope the CDU finally runs in Bavaria and kills off the bums from Bavaria for good. I will then officially retract every mean thing I've said about mutti merkel.

[Beezer]

German government approval hits three year low
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/10/29/german-government-approval-hits-three-year-low/

[Tender Branson]

If the CSU go turncoat, I hope the CDU finally runs in Bavaria and kills off the bums from Bavaria for good. I will then officially retract every mean thing I've said about mutti merkel.

A new poll actually shows the opposite:

Many non-Bavarian Germans have a desire for a CDU in their own state that is more like the CSU.

A federal CSU would get 14.5% of the vote, twice the number of their 2013 share.

The federal CDU would drop from their 34% in 2013 to 27.5%

What's also interesting: If CDU and CSU would decide to run seperately, their combined share would increase from 35% now to 42% (mostly because the pollster argues that many AfD voters would switch over to the federal CSU).

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148230658/Dieses-Potenzial-wuerde-die-CSU-bundesweit-entfalten.html

[Beezer]

I always felt FJS was right about this too. The "Union" is less than the sum of its parts. I suppose the CDU's objections to a federal CSU are based on a fear of having to share their "Fraktionsgemeinschaft" and party with a more powerful CSU.

[tpfkaw]

But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

[DC Al Fine]

But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

IIRC, proportional seats are allocated to ensure that the total number of seats is proportional, not just the non-FPTP seats. They even go so far as to add seats to the legislature to ensure proportionality.

CDU/CSU could technically lose every FPTP seat and still get their fair share of seats.

[tpfkaw]

But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

IIRC, proportional seats are allocated to ensure that the total number of seats is proportional, not just the non-FPTP seats. They even go so far as to add seats to the legislature to ensure proportionality.

CDU/CSU could technically lose every FPTP seat and still get their fair share of seats.

1. CSU currently gets more seats than it "should" by sweeping the FPTP seats in Bavaria, and CDU isn't punished for that in the PR seats because they're separate parties.

2. The minor parties that never win FPTP seats (Grüne, Linke*, FDP and AfD if they get in) are also compensated out of the PR seats pool, leaving fewer PR seats left to compensate CDU/CSU.

*Linke does win a couple in former East Germany, I believe.

[SNJ1985]

New Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 36%
SPD: 25%
Grünen: 10%
Die Linke: 10%
AfD: 8%
FDP: 5%
Others: 6%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

[Zanas]

New Emnid federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 36%
SPD: 25%
Grünen: 10%
Die Linke: 10%
AfD: 8%
FDP: 5%
Others: 6%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

A bit more transfer between CDU/CSU -> AfD, and even a GroKo won't have a majority...

[palandio]

But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

IIRC, proportional seats are allocated to ensure that the total number of seats is proportional, not just the non-FPTP seats. They even go so far as to add seats to the legislature to ensure proportionality.

CDU/CSU could technically lose every FPTP seat and still get their fair share of seats.

1. CSU currently gets more seats than it "should" by sweeping the FPTP seats in Bavaria, and CDU isn't punished for that in the PR seats because they're separate parties.

2. The minor parties that never win FPTP seats (Grüne, Linke*, FDP and AfD if they get in) are also compensated out of the PR seats pool, leaving fewer PR seats left to compensate CDU/CSU.

*Linke does win a couple in former East Germany, I believe.

No, you're referring to the pre-2013 law. Both 1. and 2. don't apply anymore. Since 2013 seats are distributed completely proportionally (among parties that get in).

[Sozialliberal]

Here are three reasons why I think that the CSU going federal is very unlikely:

1 The CSU currently plays the role of a populist regional party, especially rhetorically. Its purpose is defending Bavarian interests against the "Prussians". That would no longer work if they had to share their party with said "Prussians".

2 The CSU governed Bavaria without a coalition partner constantly from 1966 to 2008, and they take a lot of pride in that. It was a disaster for them when they lost their absolute majority of seats in 2008. They regained it in 2013, but they would most certainly lose it again if they had to face competition from the CDU.

3 It's not the first time that CSU politicans have ranted about one of Merkel's policies and have backed it anyway in the end. So voters who are not satisified with Merkel's asylum and migration policies could think that the CSU are just "big-mouths" and vote for a new party like the AfD or ALFA instead.

[Beezer]

Latest poll for Rhineland-Palatinate (state elections in March 2016):

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/rheinland-pfalz.htm

(Change compared to 2011 election results)

CDU: 41 (+ 5.8  )
SPD: 30 (- 5.7)
Greens: 8 (- 7.4)
FDP: 4 (- 0.2)
Left: 5 (+ 2)
AfD: 6 (+ 6)

[Beezer]

Emnid has the AfD at 9%, tying their all time high reached in October of last year (after the wave of successful state elections in eastern Germany).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

CDU/CSU: 36 (0)
SPD: 26 (+1)
Greens: 10 (0)
Left: 9 (-1)
AfD: 9 (+1)
FDP: 4 (-1)
Others: 6 (0)

[Beezer]

CDU down to 34% in latest INSA-poll. FDP at 6, AfD at 10%.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm