German Elections & Politics

[DavidB.]

Excellent. People are finally starting to be annoyed with Merkel's shenanigans. If I may ask, who did you vote for in 2013, Beezer?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbf Merkel is a ridiculously wily politician. A lot of people have written her off before but she always manages to electorally demolish her opponents.

[DL]

CDU down to 34% in latest INSA-poll. FDP at 6, AfD at 10%.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

That's all very well but any way you slice it - it all just means that the next election will lead to another Merkel led "grand coalition" - no other government is viable

[tpfkaw]

CDU down to 34% in latest INSA-poll. FDP at 6, AfD at 10%.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

That's all very well but any way you slice it - it all just means that the next election will lead to another Merkel led "grand coalition" - no other government is viable

Grand coalition is at 58% in that poll and it's dropping. If it continues on the same trajectory (even at a slower pace) it's not going to be a majority anymore by 2017.

And Merkel might find it hard to stay on as party leader if they do worse than in 2009.

[Beezer]

Tbf Merkel is a ridiculously wily politician. A lot of people have written her off before but she always manages to electorally demolish her opponents.

Except for that one time in 2005. She has been able to exploit a period of relative economic strength here in Germany. Most people were ok with her eurozone policies and nobody else really dared to offer an alternative in 2013...what were they going to do, call for eurobonds? Now the tide appears to be slowly but surely turning though and I doubt Merkel really knows what to do. Her policy of solving every crisis with tiny incremental steps is getting nowhere and she has no allies left in Europe.

[Beezer]

Excellent. People are finally starting to be annoyed with Merkel's shenanigans. If I may ask, who did you vote for in 2013, Beezer?

I did vote for the AfD in 2013, mainly because of the CDU-FDP's handling of the eurozone crisis. Before that I had always voted FDP. If the FDP did its job and protected liberal values (by that I mean calling for an end to the influx of millions of people with largely illiberal values), I'd also be open to voting for them again. I don't care much for the AfD's cultural plank since I am perfectly fine with gay marriage and essentially feel people can live their lives whichever way they choose. Right now though my most pressing concern is - surprise, surprise - the migrant crisis which puts me in the awkward position of having to vote for a right-wing populist party.

[DavidB.]

I did vote for the AfD in 2013, mainly because of the CDU-FDP's handling of the eurozone crisis. Before that I had always voted FDP. If the FDP did its job and protected liberal values (by that I mean calling for an end to the influx of millions of people with largely illiberal values), I'd also be open to voting for them again. I don't care much for the AfD's cultural plank since I am perfectly fine with gay marriage and essentially feel people can live their lives whichever way they choose. Right now though my most pressing concern is - surprise, surprise - the migrant crisis which puts me in the awkward position of having to vote for a right-wing populist party.

I totally understand. Would've been a fairly loyal FDP voter before 2013 (without hindsight) and an AfD voter in (and after) 2013 as well.

And it's not as if the FDP voted for same-sex marriage when it mattered...

[DL]

Can someone give me an idea of what a "non-CDU" government in Germany could ever look like? As I see it, the only way it can happen is if something happens that so far shows no sign of hapening and that is for the SPD to start gaining ground and have a shot at becoming the largest party - and even then, the only way you can avoid a "grand coalition" in reverse where the CDU is still in power is if the was a SPD/Green majority OR is some sort of a  traffic-light coalition could emerge where SPD+Green+FDP have a majority OR if there was an end to the taboo against working with the Linke party in which case maybe an SPD+Green+Linke govt could emerge.

But how likely is any of that?

[DavidB.]

1. SPD-Green: doesn't seem likely at the moment, given the fact that this combination polls under 35% now and given the fact that the German electorate is not as volatile as, for instance, the Dutch electorate.
2. SPD-Green-FDP: even if the FDP manages to reach the threshold, it would probably prefer cooperation with CDU to cooperation with SPD and the Greens. And then again, we don't even know if this combination would have a majority. Not likely.
3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.

In short, unless something changes in terms of electoral preferences, and this could happen between now and 2017 (but I doubt it), it doesn't seem likely that the CDU will not be part of the next government.

[Tender Branson]

The dates for all 5 state elections in 2016 are now finalized:

13 March ("Super Sunday")

Baden-Württemberg (10.8 Mio. people), Rheinland-Pfalz (4.1 Mio.), Sachsen-Anhalt (2.2 Mio.)

4 September:

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (1.6 Mio.)

18 September:

Berlin (3.6 Mio.)

[palandio]

3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.

From what I see, the DDR legacy is not the main problem anymore.
SPD and Greens have a bigger problem with many of those that entered the Linke in 2005-2008 for various reasons.

[BundouYMB]

Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.

lol wat

Has this ever happened in the modern era? The Left Bloc collapsed in Portugal from 10% to 5% after supporting the Socialists between 2009 and 2011. The Left declined from 12% to 6% while supporting the Social Democrats in Sweden between 1998 and 2006. Social Democrats went from 36% to 35%. The Socialist Left Party went from 13% to 4% supporting various governments between 2001 and 2013. Social Democrats went from 24% to 30%. The IU almost died while cooperating with the PSOE in Spain. Cooperation with the PS killed the PCF in France. The radical left has never fared well in coalition governments. A lot of times it fails to distinguish itself from the Social Democrats and there voters end up getting subsumed. I can honestly not think of a single situation where the Social Democrats lost votes to radical left parties after entering government with them. Most of the times they absorb them.

[DL]

Actually what you are describing is a pretty consistent global phenomenon where junior partners in coalition governments usually get crushed in the following election. Look at how the FDP collapsed from 15% to 4% after being junior partner to Merkel's CDU for four years.. there is also the Lib Dem example in the UK

[tpfkaw]

Has this ever happened in the modern era?

It's how every social-democratic party in Europe became the main left-wing force, although not sure if that counts as "modern era." Or the Italian Socialist Party and the Italian Communist Party, for a more modern example.

[Angel of Death]

Should Germany get its own general discussion thread on the International General Discussion board?

[DavidB.]

Should Germany get its own general discussion thread on the International General Discussion board?

This is Germany's general discussion thread, but it's in International Elections because it's in the framework of "Elections and Politics", like e.g. the Dutch and the Austrian threads.

[Beezer]

Big news today: Schäuble referred to an "avalanche" of migrants. Cue (feigned) outrage from the left which accused the poor man of having the audacity to use a widely used term.

My favorite response had to be this Tweet from a Green party member:

[Tender Branson]

No surprise: Our left-leftist friends are professionals in reality-denying.

[rob in cal]

    Is there any chance of an internal coup within the CDU to overthrow Merkel? If that were to happen and someone like Schauble take over would the SPD still want to continue in coalition?

[Yeahsayyeah]

No surprise: Our left-leftist friends are professionals in reality-denying.

We all know, that dehumanization in terminology is common in Austria, but still there is no reason for this one-liners of yours, every day.

The policy of Europe trying a common policy of blocking the refugees at the outside borders has collapsed and all measures that can be taken to block them while keeping at least remnants of humanity, dignity and civilization will not be sufficient.
Concrete walls and self-shooting devices would, of course. We've had that, already.

The policy of every state building its own fences only leads to new waves, change of routes, uncertainty. It's cynyc to shorten the subsidies for refugee camps in Turkey etc. for years, so that even surviving is no longer sure for those, who have been there for four years, with no perspective for peace or making a living, anymore, and then to tell them they have to stay there forever in the mud, and on the other hand make solemn declamations wanting to "fight the reasons for people fleeing", despite fighting the people fleeing, actually.

And its just cynyc to complain about, that only men were coming (which is not true) and then to forestall family reunion measures.

And its just cynyc for every state to block all people at there borders and just let the other state alone.

Enough ranted.

[Beezer]

28 member states will never agree on something as thorny as immigration. So unless Germany wants to welcome them all it's just gonna have to accept some unpalatable measures: Securing the outside border and letting no one in who's coming from a safe country. Period. Then they can register in the camps in Syria's neighboring states with the EU moving some people into the union. Otherwise wave after wave (is that an acceptable term?) will come if they feel they might be able to get asylum just by arriving on the shores of Lesbos.

Anyway, CDU actually gains a point in Emnid poll (now at 37%). Seems they have somewhat bottomed out.

[palandio]

Average of the last five polls (Emnid 11/14, FGW 11/13, Forsa 11/11, INSA 11/9, Infratest dimap 11/5):

CDU/CSU 37.0% (-4.5% compared to 2013 federal election)
SPD 24.8% (-0.9%)
Left 9.2% (+0.6%)
Greens 10.0% (+1.6%)
FDP 5.0% (+0.2%)
AfD 8.2% (+3.5%)
Others 5.8% (-0.4%)

[SNJ1985]

The AfD has hit 10,5% in the latest INSA/YouGov poll on wahlrecht.de, overtaking the Greens and the Left!

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23,5%
AfD: 10,5%
Grünen: 10,0%
DL: 10,0%
FDP: 5,0%
Others: 6%

[Sozialliberal]

A football/soccer match in Germany, which was actually meant as a sign of resistance to terrorism after the bomb attack near a football/soccer stadium in Paris, has been cancelled because there were specific indications that a similar attack was planned in the stadium in Germany.

2. SPD-Green-FDP: even if the FDP manages to reach the threshold, it would probably prefer cooperation with CDU to cooperation with SPD and the Greens. And then again, we don't even know if this combination would have a majority. Not likely.

Well, I don't think SPD-Greens-FDP would have a majority in 2017. However, I can imagine that the Third Way-ite Gabriel and the FDP chairman Lindner, who's trying to get rid of the image that the FDP is a mere tax-cut party, would seriously consider such a coalition if it did have a majority. (By the way, Lindner has welcomed two former Pirate Party chairmen into the FDP.)

3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.

I actually think that "Die Linke" would be more likely to lose votes in such a coalition. When "Die Linke" were junior partners in governments at regional state level (in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin and Brandenburg), they always lost large shares of votes.

The DDR past of "Die Linke" plays a role, too. However, their foreign policies, which many perceive as utopian and too Putin-friendly, are seen as a much bigger obstacle to a federal red-red-green coalition now.

Controversial foreign policies of "Die Linke":
* opposition to economic sanctions against Russia as a response to the annexion of Crimea
* dissolution of the NATO and establishment of a new military alliance that would also include Russia
* a ban on any exports of arms

    Is there any chance of an internal coup within the CDU to overthrow Merkel? If that were to happen and someone like Schauble take over would the SPD still want to continue in coalition?

The German media have speculated about that. Chancellor Merkel's asylum/migration policies have apparently disunited the CDU. It looks like there is a permissive tendency around Merkel and a restrictive tendency around de Mazière (Minister of the Interior) and Schäuble (Minister of Finance). If an internal coup is actually staged, a snap election would be a near certainty. I don't think the SPD would actually want to continue the coalition in that scenario, but they would probably end up doing it anyway for reasons of state.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is it impossible to form a minority government in Germany? Like, why can't the SPD and Greens form a coalition, and be supported on the outside by Linke?