German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wahl-o-mat for the Baden-Württemberg state election is out:
https://www9.wahl-o-mat.de/bw2016/main_app.php

Left 84.2%
Greens 80.3%
Pirate Party 76.3%
SPD 76.3%
Free Voters 46.1%
FDP 36.8%
AfD 34.2%
CDU 26.3%

[Beezer]

My Ba-Wü results:

AfD 83%
CDU 76.1%
ALFA 75%
FDP 64.8%
Pirates 47.7%
SPD 39.8%
Greens 36.4%
Left 30.7%

[Tender Branson]

My results for BW:

78.9% ÖDP
78.9% The Party
75.0% Animal Protection Party
75.0% Animal Protection Alliance
73.4% Human World
72.7% DKP
72.7% SPD
72.7% Left
71.1% Greens
71.1% Pirates
59.4% The Right
57.8% Alliance C
56.3% Free Voters
53.9% NPD
47.7% AfD
43.8% ALFA
43.0% CDU
42.2% FDP
39.8% BüSo
39.1% REP

[Tender Branson]

Has anyone seen "likelihood to vote" questions in the recent polls ?

I guess turnout will be up significantly because of the migrant situation, much like in the recent Austrian state elections.

[Zanas]

CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?

That seems less plausible than CDU-Greens or CDU-SDP-FDP.

Yeah I don't think Ampelkoalitions (traffic-light) are a thing nowadays. They haven't been for quite a while, and it's just not really in the air.

[SNJ1985]

Wahl-o-mat for the Baden-Württemberg state election is out:
https://www9.wahl-o-mat.de/bw2016/main_app.php

AfD: 76,3%
Republicans: 73,7%
ALFA: 64,5%
CDU: 63,2%
FDP: 60,5%
Greens: 40,8%
SPD: 34,2%
Left: 28,9%

[Boston Bread]

I got
Pirate 71.1%
Left 71.1%
Green 64.5%
ODP 63.2%
SPD 63.2%
FDP 44.7%
AfD 39.5%
CDU 39.5%
which is a little surprising as I'd still feel fairly enthusiastic about supporting SPD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New INSA polls for BW, RP, and ST.

The Kretschmentum helps the Greens in taking the lead in Baden-Württemberg, CDU and SPD are in a close race for 1st place in Rheinland-Palatinate, and the SPD falls behind the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt.

Baden-Württemberg
Greens 30.5%
CDU 30%
SPD 16%
AfD 10%
FDP 7%
Left 3%

Rhineland-Palatinate
CDU 35%
SPD 33%
Greens 9%
AfD 8.5%
FDP 7%
Left 4%

Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 30%
Left 21%
AfD 17%
SPD 16%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

Possible coalitions with these results:

BW: Greens/CDU, Greens/SPD/FDP, CDU/SPD/FDP.
Both Greens/SPD and CDU/SPD miss a majority very narrowly (Greens would need 0.5% more for that).

RP: CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens/FDP, SPD/Greens/FDP

ST: CDU/SPD

[RodPresident]

^^

Possible coalitions with these results:

BW: Greens/CDU, Greens/SPD/FDP, CDU/SPD/FDP.
Both Greens/SPD and CDU/SPD miss a majority very narrowly (Greens would need 0.5% more for that).

RP: CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens/FDP, SPD/Greens/FDP

ST: CDU/SPD

Would a revived FDP more receptive to traffic-light coalitions?

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

Possible coalitions with these results:

BW: Greens/CDU, Greens/SPD/FDP, CDU/SPD/FDP.
Both Greens/SPD and CDU/SPD miss a majority very narrowly (Greens would need 0.5% more for that).

RP: CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens/FDP, SPD/Greens/FDP

ST: CDU/SPD

Would a revived FDP more receptive to traffic-light coalitions?

They still prefer coalitions with the CDU.

[Beezer]

If the CDU somehow comes in second in both BW and RLP things might get a bit uncomfortable for Merkel.

[Hnv1]

Wahl-o-mat for the Saxony-Anhalt state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/sa2016w/

Die Partei 75
Piraten 65.8
DKP 61.8
Linke 60.5
SPD 60.5
ALFA 53.9
Die Rechte 53.9
AfD 52.6
CDU 52.6
Green 51.3
NPD 51.3
FDP 44.7

not sure what to make of this

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

(bw)

90.9% die linke
89.8% dkp
83.0% tierschutzpartei
80.7% piraten
79.5% grüne
77.3% tierschutzallianz
76.1% spd
73.9% menschliche welt
68.2% ödp
60.2% die partei
54.5% büso
46.6% freie wähler
43.2% bündnis c
38.6% fdp
31.8% afd
30.7% alfa
30.7% die rechte
29.5% cdu
26.1% npd
20.5% rep

i was strongly leaning toward voting for die linke anyway, so…

[DavidB.]

Lol: Greenie MP Volker Beck has stepped down because the police just found out that he possessed 0.6 gram of crystal meth. Beck was an MP since 1994. He declared that he "has always propagated a liberal drug policy". Okay.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lol: Greenie MP Volker Beck has stepped down because the police just found out that he possessed 0.6 gram of crystal meth. Beck was an MP since 1994. He declared that he "has always propagated a liberal drug policy". Okay.

That's actually the second meth head discovered in the Bundestag in two years... the last one was Michael Hartmann (SPD) in 2014.

[Diouf]

[Beezer]

Data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF:







Seems like that first ever 4th place finish for the SPD is becoming more and more likely...

[rob in cal]

   Any ideas of who are the leading parties of the other parties getting 7% in Saxony Anhalt?  If a lot of that is to rightist splinter parties, that's even more of a big protest vote.

[jaichind]

Wow. The rise of AfD is such so in 2 out of the 3 states even the CDU-SPD grand alliance will not have a majority.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wasn't there this odd trend a few years back where the courts were declaring war on electoral thresholds? Is that still occurring?

[Cranberry]

Wow. The rise of AfD is such so in 2 out of the 3 states even the CDU-SPD grand alliance will not have a majority.

Well, in BaWü CDU-Greens is at this point the real grand coalition, not anymore CDU-SPD. Still, this AfD surge is indeed big and shocking, though to be expected, sadly.

[Middle-aged Europe]

   Any ideas of who are the leading parties of the other parties getting 7% in Saxony Anhalt?  If a lot of that is to rightist splinter parties, that's even more of a big protest vote.

According to a brand new uniQma poll (whoever that is...) it's the Free Voters with 4%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Voters

The full poll results for Saxony-Anhalt:
CDU 30%
Left 19%
SPD 18%
AfD 17%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%
Free Voters 4%
NPD 1%
Others 2%

[DavidB.]

Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

oh, quite the opposite. it is unambiguously a bad thing that the afd is granting them legitimacy.