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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655283 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1050 on: March 06, 2016, 12:25:10 PM »

Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

How has NPD performed relative to the polls historically? If there's a shy Tory effect, it seems logical that there would be a big shy Nazi effect.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1051 on: March 06, 2016, 01:58:33 PM »

Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

I don't give a sh**t whether NPD voters go for the AfD now. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1052 on: March 06, 2016, 07:17:20 PM »

    Hessen local elections today showed AFD getting seats in cities throughout Hessen.  A good sign for the party for the coming votes next week. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1053 on: March 07, 2016, 03:37:36 AM »

According to new INSA polls for the 3 state elections next Sunday, the AfD now has a chance to overtake the Left in Saxony-Anhalt and become 2nd largest party there with ~20%.

In BW, the Greens expand their lead over the CDU to ~5%, while the AfD is marching towards 15%.

In RP, CDU and SPD are in a close fight for first with both having ~35%.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1054 on: March 07, 2016, 10:27:38 AM »

Super Sunday is shaping up to be quite something.

Hessen municipal elections:

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Gustaf
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« Reply #1055 on: March 08, 2016, 11:16:56 AM »

Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

oh, quite the opposite. it is unambiguously a bad thing that the afd is granting them legitimacy.

I think it depends - in theory there is a case for either side. Forcing extremists into a more moderate fold can mitigate their impact by forcing them closer to the centre. On the other hand, it can also increase their impact if they can use a bigger party as a vehicle for their ideas and policies.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1056 on: March 08, 2016, 03:51:49 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2016, 03:56:20 PM by Old Europe »

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) have "asked" the two remaining AfD members in the European Parliament - Beatrix von Storch and Marcus Pretzell - to leave their group by March 31. If they don't, the ECR is gonna vote on expulsing them.

Meanwhile, the NPD has launched a vote-splitting campaign for the upcoming state elections: AfD for the direct candidate, NPD for the party list. Much to the AfD's dismay.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1057 on: March 08, 2016, 05:09:09 PM »

Lmao. Merkel might have been pushing Cameron to do so. Not the smartest move, considering the fact that ALFA will probably be gone next time (but maybe the Tories will be gone too...). Well, either Farage or Le Wilders will be delighted by this news.

Meanwhile, the NPD has launched a vote-splitting campaign for the upcoming state elections: AfD for the direct candidate, NPD for the party list. Much to the AfD's dismay.
Good trolling, I have to admit.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1058 on: March 08, 2016, 05:13:13 PM »

Lmao. Merkel might have been pushing Cameron to do so. Not the smartest move, considering the fact that ALFA will probably be gone next time (but maybe the Tories will be gone too...). Well, either Farage or Le Wilders will be delighted by this news.

The Spiegel Online article on the subject implied that the two other German parties within the ECR group (ALFA and the Family Party of Germany) have pushed hard for this.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1059 on: March 08, 2016, 05:36:33 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2016, 05:39:59 PM by DavidB. »

The Spiegel Online article on the subject implied that the two other German parties within the ECR group (ALFA and the Family Party of Germany) have pushed hard for this.
I can imagine that the relationship between the ALFA MPs and the remaining AfD MPs must have been somewhat... strained.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see whether they will choose to go to ENF or EFD now. I think EFD, as the less radical choice, is more likely, but at the same time AfD and the FPÖ have been relatively close recently, and AfD, as a fairly pro-Russian party, might feel more at home in ENF (which is full of pro-Russian parties, except for the Dutch PVV) than in the relatively pro-Atlantic EFD group.
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Aboa
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« Reply #1060 on: March 08, 2016, 07:12:34 PM »

The Spiegel Online article on the subject implied that the two other German parties within the ECR group (ALFA and the Family Party of Germany) have pushed hard for this.
I can imagine that the relationship between the ALFA MPs and the remaining AfD MPs must have been somewhat... strained.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see whether they will choose to go to ENF or EFD now. I think EFD, as the less radical choice, is more likely, but at the same time AfD and the FPÖ have been relatively close recently, and AfD, as a fairly pro-Russian party, might feel more at home in ENF (which is full of pro-Russian parties, except for the Dutch PVV) than in the relatively pro-Atlantic EFD group.

I guess joining ENF would be the end of AfD even trying to appear as ''moderate''.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1061 on: March 10, 2016, 05:23:50 AM »

Why the imminent electoral success of the AfD makes me worry about the future of democracy

I'm in the somewhat unfortunate position that I've got a job where I come in regular contact with AfD supporters/members and have to debate with them. Nowadays it's via mail and Facebook. Fortunately I don't have to do on the phone anymore, because that is a *truly* frustrating experience. The frustrating part is that a very high number of AfD supporters seem to have disconnected themselves from any rational discourse. Trying to win them back for our democracy is a lost cause. That goes along with a affinity for conspiracy theories. These are people who believe that the "mainstream media" is government propaganda and lies to them on a regular basis. At the same time, they regard rumours on the Internet and Russian state media as credible sources. Because they chose only to believe what they want to believe. With worrying frequency I come across reasonings along the lines of "I don't have any proof for that, but I do believe it anyway, because it fits with what I think I know about it". They also seems to be a worrying and increasing correlation between support for the AfD and a admiration for Vladimir Putin and his policies. Some of it is again due to conspiracy theories, some of it is due to plain anti-Americanism (which seems to be rather widespread among AfD supporters), and some if it is because they frankly want to have the same kind of government like they do in Russia. So, what happens with this country if that kind of thinking is not successfully contained, but continues to spread? Could we actually end up with a government like they have in Russia at some point?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1062 on: March 10, 2016, 06:41:46 AM »

With worrying frequency I come across reasonings along the lines of "I don't have any proof for that, but I do believe it anyway, because it fits with what I think I know about it".

How is this different from supporters of every other political party of the world? There is nothing new under the sun.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1063 on: March 10, 2016, 12:40:24 PM »

With worrying frequency I come across reasonings along the lines of "I don't have any proof for that, but I do believe it anyway, because it fits with what I think I know about it".

How is this different from supporters of every other political party of the world? There is nothing new under the sun.

But they aren't a fifth column from an hostile government.
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palandio
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« Reply #1064 on: March 10, 2016, 01:07:10 PM »

I'm scared that the main political divide in Germany tends to not be anymore between two or more respectable positions, but increasingly between an alternative-less mainstream consensus and the hateful anti-system fringe.

YouGov came out with a new online poll for the Baden-Württemberg and the Rheinland-Pfalz elections.

The new average of the last five polls (published between March 3 and March 10) for Baden-Württemberg is:

CDU 28.7% (-10.3% from 2011)
Greens 32.3% (+8.1%)
SPD 13.3% (-9.8%)
FDP 7.2% (+1.9%)
Left 3.6% (+0.8%)
AfD 11.7% (new)
Others 3.2% (-2.3%)

The new average of the last five polls for Rheinland-Pfalz is:

CDU 35.4% (+0.2%)
SPD 34.6% (-1.1%)
Greens 6.4% (-9.0%)
FDP 5.6% (+1.4%)
Left 3.8% (+0.8%)
AfD 9.6% (new)
Others 4.6% (-1.8%)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1065 on: March 10, 2016, 02:11:19 PM »

My predictions for the Sunday state elections:

Baden-Württemberg:

30.4% Greens
29.0% CDU
15.1% AfD
12.3% SPD
  7.0% FDP
  2.9% Left
  3.3% Others

Rheinland-Pfalz:

32.6% CDU
32.0% SPD
14.5% AfD
  6.7% Greens
  6.3% FDP
  3.6% Left
  4.3% Others

Sachsen-Anhalt:

28.8% CDU
20.2% AfD
19.7% Left
14.9% SPD
  5.4% FDP
  5.3% Greens
  2.6% FW
  3.1% Others
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DL
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« Reply #1066 on: March 10, 2016, 02:26:03 PM »


The new average of the last five polls for Rheinland-Pfalz is:

CDU 35.4% (+0.2%)
SPD 34.6% (-1.1%)
Greens 6.4% (-9.0%)
FDP 5.6% (+1.4%)
Left 3.8% (+0.8%)
AfD 9.6% (new)
Others 4.6% (-1.8%)

Am I correct that the only possible government in this scenario is a grand coalition and the only real question is whether the CDU or SPD finishes first since that party would supply the premier?
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palandio
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« Reply #1067 on: March 10, 2016, 03:01:41 PM »

@DL: Yes, basically. The only other thing that could happen is that FDP or Greens fall below 5% because of the head-to-head race between SPD and CDU.

The current 5-poll average for Sachsen-Anhalt (Infratest dimap, FGW, INSA, Forsa, the fifth being UniQma instead of YouGov):

CDU 30.4% (-2.1%)
Left 20.0% (-3.7%)
SPD 16.1% (-5.4%)
Greens 5.3% (-1.8%)
FDP 4.3% (+0.5%)
AfD 18.0% (new)
Others 5.9% (-5.4%) [UniQma: Free Voters at 4%]

Personal predictions tomorrow or on Saturday.
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palandio
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« Reply #1068 on: March 11, 2016, 05:43:17 PM »

Baden-Württemberg:

32.0% Greens
27.5% CDU
13.5% AfD
13.0% SPD
  7.5% FDP
  3.0% Left
  3.5% Others

26 constituencies won by CDU: Neckar-Odenwald, Biberach, Ehingen, Sigmaringen, Balingen, Main-Tauber, Freudenstadt, Tuttlingen-Donaueschingen, Rottweil, Aalen, Bruchsal, Wangen, Calw, Hechingen-Münsingen, Pforzheim, Schwäbisch Gmünd, Kehl, Neckarsulm, Eppingen, Enz, Hohenlohe, Backnang, Villingen-Schwenningen, Geislingen, Böblingen, Bretten
44 constituencies won by the Greens: All others (34 gains from CDU, 1 gain from SPD)

Rheinland-Pfalz:

35.0% SPD
34.0% CDU
11.0% AfD
  7.0% FDP
  5.5% Greens
  3.5% Left
  4.0% Others

24 constituencies won by SPD: Like last time plus Pirmasens (gain from CDU)
27 constituencies won by CDU

Sachsen-Anhalt:

30.0% CDU
20.0% Left
19.5% AfD
15.5% SPD
  4.5% FDP
  4.5% Greens
  3.5% FW
  2.5% Others

1 constituency won by The Left: Halle I
1 constituency won by AfD: Wolfen (gain from CDU)
43 constituencies won by CDU: All others (2 gains from Left, 1 gain from SPD)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1069 on: March 12, 2016, 02:09:04 AM »

Absentee ballot requests are up across the board .. by as much as 45% in Rheinland-Pfalz, 20-30% in Baden-Württemberg (which already had much higher turnout in 2011 due to Fukushima and Stuttgart 21) and even in Sachsen-Anhalt.

It will be interesting to see if there's higher turnout tomorrow due to the migrant crisis. In the state elections in Austria last year, turnout increased by quite a bit.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1070 on: March 12, 2016, 08:18:52 AM »

My turnout estimates:

BW: ~67% (+1)
RP: ~65% (+3)
SA: ~53% (+2)
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #1071 on: March 12, 2016, 06:07:35 PM »

The FDP top candidate in Baden-Württemberg said he is aiming for a "Germany coalition" (named after the colours of the German national flag), a coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP, because neither Black-Yellow nor Black-Red would have a majority according to polls. Such coalitions were formed in some states until the late 1950s. He ruled out a Green-led traffic-light coalition (Greens, SPD + FDP).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1072 on: March 13, 2016, 02:01:26 AM »

Polls in all 3 "Super Sunday" states are now open !

Polls close at 6pm, which is when we'll get first projections.
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palandio
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« Reply #1073 on: March 13, 2016, 05:21:21 AM »

Just voted for Baden-Württemberg at ca. 11 am local time. Cloudy, cold wind, but no rain or snow, should be good conditions for turnout. I saw quite a few people on the streets, clearly going to or returning from the polling place. Still turnout until now hasn't been very high, which is not too surprising given the nature of my ward, and even the (not so many) church-goers probably are voting only now.

Exit-polls at 6 pm, projections based on real counts at ca. 6:30 pm. Partial counts are not as usual as they are in other countries.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1074 on: March 13, 2016, 06:34:44 AM »

Yep, polls are open. Just voted SPD.
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