German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Merkel is in for a walloping in her home state next Sunday.

Excellent, if true.

[Beezer]

Well, the CDU got 23 percent in the last election so the final result will in all likelihood not be all that bad. The SPD will wind up as the strongest party which it'll interpret as a strong signal that people still love social democracy.

[Sozialliberal]

Politicians commented on potential coalitions in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Berlin: The top candidates of the SPD, the Greens and The Left said that they can imagine forming a red-red-green coalition after the upcoming election. Michael Müller, Mayor of Berlin and SPD top candidate, said that he doesn't rule out the continuation of the grand coalition either. However, he acknowledged that the cooperation with the CDU is becoming more and more difficult. Müller criticized the CDU top candidate Henkel for adopting right-wing populist positions such as a burka ban, the abolition of dual nationality, and the deployment of the German army for internal security. The Greens ruled out a black-green coalition.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: The respective parties didn't rule out a red-red-green coalition, but it is expected that the SPD prefers the continuation of the grand coalition. Interestingly, the relationship between the SPD and the Greens in this state has been described as "not unproblematic". The SPD already formed a coalition with the PDS, which is a predecessor party of The Left, from 1998 to 2006. So they're more familiar with each other, whereas the Greens entered the state parliament in 2011 for the first time ever.

New AfD strategy

The AfD targets a new group of voters in Berlin: potheads!

The poster reads: "My Moroccan drug dealer gets his life completely financed by the state. Something's super-fishy in Germany, and that's why I'm voting for the Alternative."

No, this is not a joke! Ronald Gläser, the spokesman for the AfD of Berlin, confirmed that this is an actual AfD election campaign poster. It's part of the AfD's strategy to attract more urban voters. Gläser also said that they're thinking about targeting German citizens of Turkish or Arabic origin in the future. How bizarre!

Despite my concerns regarding the less than satisfying response vis-a-vis anti-Semitism within the party, I would vote AfD.

Have you looked at ALFA? It seems like a good fit for you: Eurosceptic, economically liberal in the European sense, strongly pro-American (unlike the more pro-Russian AfD). They're also critical of Merkel's asylum/immigration policy and presented an asylum concept that is very detailed and, in my opinion, well-thought-out. What makes me sceptical is that Bernd Lucke signed an appeal ("Hamburger Appell") that called for cutting unemployment benefits even more after the Hartz reforms. I'm strongly opposed to that. I also think they're too uncritical of the free-trade agreements TTIP and CETA. ALFA hasn't been very successful in state elections: 1.0% in BW was its best result. I don't know if that would bother you.

Is there a reason why spd has siffered in local and federal polls since last year, is it association with cdu with the grand coalition or do they have their own issues in the coalition?

The SPD bleeds voters to the AfD (especially in the East), but if there are popular incumbent Governors such as in Rheinland-Pfalz, they can hold their vote (or even increase it slightly).

Thanks! I always just assumed afd got its voters from disillusioned cdu and free liberals

The voter base of the AfD has been mostly working-class from the beginning on. The AfD absorbed considerable numbers of voters from all major parties except the Greens. I'd say that the SPD lost more voters in the west to the AfD than it lost voters in the east to the AfD. I think so because the SPD has (or had?) a working-class base in the west that traditionally votes social-democratic in every election. It doesn't have that in the east.

[Beezer]

Definitely within striking distance to come in first in Mecklenburg-W Pommerania

SPD 28
AfD 23
CDU 20
Left 15
Greens 6
NPD 2
FDP 2

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/mecklenburg-vorpommern.htm

[Tender Branson]

Definitely within striking distance to come in first in Mecklenburg-W Pommerania

SPD 28
AfD 23
CDU 20
Left 15
Greens 6
NPD 2
FDP 2

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/mecklenburg-vorpommern.htm

If the AfD underpolls by 5% like in Saxony-Anhalt, then yes.

Anyway, Merkel needs a solid trashing so that she can step down from her high horse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But always remember with polling: precedent is not quite tendency, tendency is not quite rule.

[Beezer]

I suppose with each good result, voicing your support for the AfD becomes less of a socially undesirable act hence polling may get more accurate. Still, relegating the CDU into third place would be quite an achievement.

[FredLindq]

Is there any CDU or CSU politican at the local or the state level that has discussed or mentioned opentype an cooperation with AfD or is that out of question and tabu even on local and state level?!

[DavidB.]

I suppose with each good result, voicing your support for the AfD becomes less of a socially undesirable act hence polling may get more accurate.

This doesn't really seem to be the case, though, does it?

[rob in cal]

  Would this be the first time the CDU has finished third in a state parliamentary election?

[DavidB.]

 Would this be the first time the CDU has finished third in a state parliamentary election?

No, Brandenburg has had two elections (2004, 2009) with SPD and PDS/Die Linke in first and second place respectively. In the West, Bremen (2011) had SPD and the Greens in first and second place.

[palandio]

Keep in mind that the published numbers usually aren't raw numbers and that pollsters are continuedly adjusting their secret formulas to account for all kinds of over- and underpolling.

[Beezer]

Merkel's popularity at a 5-year low:



Job approval of the Merkel administration:



If you could directly elect the chancellor, who would you choose?

[DavidB.]

Why would so many Greens prefer Merkel over Gabriel? The perception of Merkel being more of a "left-winger" on migrant issues than Gabriel? Is that also the reason why relatively many SPD voters would prefer Merkel over Gabriel?

[Beezer]

I suppose it also has to do with Gabriel being seen as a hothead and not as someone who's particularly statesmanlike.

[DavidB.]

I suppose it also has to do with Gabriel being seen as a hothead and not as someone who's particularly statesmanlike.

I read this was received with quite a lot of sympathy because of the fact that this was a response to Nazis saying he should be more like his Nazi father?

[palandio]

Why would so many Greens prefer Merkel over Gabriel? The perception of Merkel being more of a "left-winger" on migrant issues than Gabriel? Is that also the reason why relatively many SPD voters would prefer Merkel over Gabriel?

Gabriel has been showing his talent of annoying everybody for quite some time. You often hear some inconsiderate remarks from him on all kinds of issues like TTIP, immigration, punishing people by withdrawing their drivers licenses, etc. and within a few days you hear him saying the opposite. You don't know what he stands for, and unlike Merkel who in the past often suffered from the same problem, he is very vocal about it. So Gabriel is not a strong candidate.

On the other hand Merkel has the incumbent bonus and the CDU and the Green electorate have been converging for years. Green voters today are much less anti-establishment, economically leftist and pacifist than 20 years ago. From the other side the CDU has modernized its stances on social issues. Plus the refugee issue has been an icebreaker, of course.

Regarding the positions of SPD voters: Despite everything that has occurred during the last 15 years I would think that many SPD voters today vote that way because they perceive the SPD as the party of the "little man", at least compared to the CDU. It's not that they are all super-progressives on all issues. Secular, tolerant and pragmatist mostly yes. But that's where the political spectrum becomes far more complicated than one or two dimensions. The recent right-wing surge does not only come from conservative CDU hardliners, but from many parts of the political spectrum, and hence it is an electoral problem not only for the mainstream center-right.

Time to start the prediction game for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern:
SPD 26.5%
CDU 19.0%
Left 13.4%
Greens 5.1%
NPD 3.0%
FDP 3.0%
AfD 24.0%
Others 6.0%

Turnout 61.0%

[pilskonzept]

Why would so many Greens prefer Merkel over Gabriel? The perception of Merkel being more of a "left-winger" on migrant issues than Gabriel? Is that also the reason why relatively many SPD voters would prefer Merkel over Gabriel?

True for the Greens - leftish on social issues, centrist (or really just "inoffensive") on economic issues is a good fit, and sort of preferable to Gabriel's occasional populist tendencies. For the SPDers...add some good old factionalism, I suppose. No, strike that - that really only applies to SPD members. SPD voters...Merkel is, again, inoffensive to them (including yours truly) in a way that most CDU backbenchers are not.

[Hnv1]

How is Gabriel maintaining his hold at leadership considering the sad state of the party at the federal level? Who will be the likely successor?

[pilskonzept]

How is Gabriel maintaining his hold at leadership considering the sad state of the party at the federal level? Who will be the likely successor?

There's a feeling that Anyone Will Lose Against Merkel - and, gaffe-prone and erratic as he is, Gabriel has avoided major scandals or controversies. The likely (post-2017) successor is anybody's guess - odds right now are on Olaf Scholz (Mayor of Hamburg) or Andrea Nahles (Federal Minister of Labour).

[Sozialliberal]

I feel uneasy about the MV state election, because the nasty AfD could actually receive the most votes. Even though I disagree with her on asylum/immigration and other issues, I admire Chancellor Merkel for doing such hard work. She had to react very quickly during the refugee crisis. There are rumours that the CSU tried to persuade her not to seek re-election. If the AfD really becomes the largest party in the MV state parliament, she should follow that advice in the interest of our country.

Is there any CDU or CSU politican at the local or the state level that has discussed or mentioned opentype an cooperation with AfD or is that out of question and tabu even on local and state level?!

State level: No, but it might happen in the future. It depends on whether the AfD will be a short-lived phenomenon or stick around for a longer time. Take The Republicans as an example. They had success as a protest party against the asylum/immigration policy of the government at the time, which many people perceived as too liberal. They entered several state parliaments in the early 90s but faded away because the government changed its policy.

Local level: Yes, there have been joint parliamentary groups of AfD members and members of other parties (e.g. FDP, CDU, SPD) at local level. However, they were all formed before Merkel let the refugees/immigrants who were stuck in Hungary in the country. You should also keep in mind that local politics is more about individuals and less about parties. Let me give you an extreme example: In the town council of Emmerich am Rhein, an FDP member formed a joint parliamentary group with a member of The Left and a member of a local party in 2014.

How is Gabriel maintaining his hold at leadership considering the sad state of the party at the federal level? Who will be the likely successor?

There's a feeling that Anyone Will Lose Against Merkel - and, gaffe-prone and erratic as he is, Gabriel has avoided major scandals or controversies. The likely (post-2017) successor is anybody's guess - odds right now are on Olaf Scholz (Mayor of Hamburg) or Andrea Nahles (Federal Minister of Labour).

You hit the nail on the head! Welcome to the forum.

Well, Scholz and Nahles are both third-wayists, so not much different from Gabriel policy-wise. Scholz is really bland, but extremely popular in Hamburg. I think of him as the Merkel of the SPD. A Merkel vs Scholz debate would be the best cure for insomnia.

[DL]

I thought Hannelore Kraft was touted as a future SPD candidate for Chancellor?

[Hnv1]

I feel uneasy about the MV state election, because the nasty AfD could actually receive the most votes. Even though I disagree with her on asylum/immigration and other issues, I admire Chancellor Merkel for doing such hard work. She had to react very quickly during the refugee crisis. There are rumours that the CSU tried to persuade her not to seek re-election. If the AfD really becomes the largest party in the MV state parliament, she should follow that advice in the interest of our country.

Is there any CDU or CSU politican at the local or the state level that has discussed or mentioned opentype an cooperation with AfD or is that out of question and tabu even on local and state level?!

State level: No, but it might happen in the future. It depends on whether the AfD will be a short-lived phenomenon or stick around for a longer time. Take The Republicans as an example. They had success as a protest party against the asylum/immigration policy of the government at the time, which many people perceived as too liberal. They entered several state parliaments in the early 90s but faded away because the government changed its policy.

Local level: Yes, there have been joint parliamentary groups of AfD members and members of other parties (e.g. FDP, CDU, SPD) at local level. However, they were all formed before Merkel let the refugees/immigrants who were stuck in Hungary in the country. You should also keep in mind that local politics is more about individuals and less about parties. Let me give you an extreme example: In the town council of Emmerich am Rhein, an FDP member formed a joint parliamentary group with a member of The Left and a member of a local party in 2014.

How is Gabriel maintaining his hold at leadership considering the sad state of the party at the federal level? Who will be the likely successor?

There's a feeling that Anyone Will Lose Against Merkel - and, gaffe-prone and erratic as he is, Gabriel has avoided major scandals or controversies. The likely (post-2017) successor is anybody's guess - odds right now are on Olaf Scholz (Mayor of Hamburg) or Andrea Nahles (Federal Minister of Labour).

You hit the nail on the head! Welcome to the forum.

Well, Scholz and Nahles are both third-wayists, so not much different from Gabriel policy-wise. Scholz is really bland, but extremely popular in Hamburg. I think of him as the Merkel of the SPD. A Merkel vs Scholz debate would be the best cure for insomnia.

I thought Nahles was from the party left

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election tomorrow:

26.4% SPD (-9.2)
25.3% AfD (+25.3)
20.7% CDU (-2.3)
12.9% Left (-5.5)
  5.6% Greens (-3.1)
  3.1% FDP (+0.3)
  1.9% NPD (-4.1)
  4.1% Others (-1.4)

Turnout: 57.6% (+6.1)

[Sozialliberal]

I thought Hannelore Kraft was touted as a future SPD candidate for Chancellor?

Kraft was repeatedly asked by journalists if she would like to be the SPD candidate for the chancellorship, and she always answered that she has no ambitions to enter federal politics.

I thought Nahles was from the party left

Well, she's a member of the "Parliamentary Left", which is an association of more left-wing SPD Bundestag members. However, Nahles proves that you can be part of the SPD left and still be a third-wayist. During her tenure as minister of labour and social services, a law was passed that victimizes unemployment benefit recipients even more in some points (e.g. making it harder to receive back payments if the unemployment benefit was miscalculated). Not even all of Nahles' proposals are contained in that law. For example, she wanted to cut unemployment benefit for single parents: A single parent would receive a lower unemployment benefit for days when their children live at the other parent's place. That could also make disputes between parents who live separately worse. After protests from the parliamentary opposition and social-policy lobbying organizations, she withdrew that proposal.

I can't think of any well-known SPD politician who is not a third-wayist to some extent. Many former SPD members who support left-wing economic policies are now members of The Left (best-known example: Oskar Lafontaine). When an SPD politician criticizes Hartz IV, it's usually along the lines: "Well, Hartz IV wasn't all bad. Some things were good. Some things were not so good." When a Left politician criticizes Hartz IV, it usually sounds like this: "Abolish Hartz IV! Immediately!"