German Elections & Politics

[DL]

  About 15% of the vote went to parties that failed to win any seats, assuming the Greens don't. The 5% rears its ugly head again.

One simple reform would be to add a preferential element to the ballot whereby one could vote Green as their first choice but then have a second choice as well so that if the Greens miss the 5% threshold - their 4.9% gets divided out to the larger parties based on the second preferences of Green voters.

How's that for a solution!

[rob in cal]

  DL, that would be my choice, with a somewhat lower threshold as well.

  Also, the Tierschutz (animal rights party) is doing well with about 1.2% of the vote.  Wonder if that hurt the Greens?

[DavidB.]

 Also, the Tierschutz (animal rights party) is doing well with about 1.2% of the vote.  Wonder if that hurt the Greens?

Probably, yes.

 Would it be fair to label the AFD, NPD and Alfa as the three most "right-wing" parties, on the migration issue at least?

Yes (edit: though Sozialliberal is obviously right about the caveats of doing so).

[Sozialliberal]

 Would it be fair to label the AFD, NPD and Alfa as the three most "right-wing" parties, on the migration issue at least?

Perhaps. It just looks strange to me when you lump a neo-nazi party, a right-wing populist party and a party that is similar to the British Tories together. By the way, the Free Voters (Freie Wähler) are critical of Merkel's asylum/immigration policy, too.

[pilskonzept]

Also, please stop treating ALFA as a serious party...they came 15th out of 17.

[rob in cal]

  Hey, Alfa got .3% of the vote, clearly the sign of a party that should be respected as a potent political force.

[pilskonzept]

Oh, and to up the LOL factor: I just read that AfD leader Holm also moved out - and now resides in Berlin's bobo district (and Green stronghold) Prenzlauer Berg.

[Bumaye]

Looking at the map of electoral districts its interesting that the AfD won in the four easternmost districts while the SPD won big everywhere else - especially in the western parts of the state. Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east? Could it be that being near the Polish border makes people more xenophobic?

Greifswalder here (the little red dot in the blue quagmire). The area is literally fcked. Mecklenburg survives because of it's tourism due to the Baltic Sea Coast and the Mecklenburg Lake Plateau. Stuff like that doesn't exist in Vorpommern, there is no industry at all, everyone who is young and educated moves away. (Greifswald is an exception because it's a university city) The people who are left see everything going down hill for their hometowns for decades. It's the perfect area for populist parties.

[Bumaye]

  Hey, Alfa got .3% of the vote, clearly the sign of a party that should be respected as a potent political force.

That's actually quite a good result looking at the fact that they have 40 members in the whole state.

[DavidB.]

This was a very, very good exit poll.

[DL]

Looking at the map of electoral districts its interesting that the AfD won in the four easternmost districts while the SPD won big everywhere else - especially in the western parts of the state. Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east? Could it be that being near the Polish border makes people more xenophobic?

Greifswalder here (the little red dot in the blue quagmire). The area is literally fcked. Mecklenburg survives because of it's tourism due to the Baltic Sea Coast and the Mecklenburg Lake Plateau. Stuff like that doesn't exist in Vorpommern, there is no industry at all, everyone who is young and educated moves away. (Greifswald is an exception because it's a university city) The people who are left see everything going down hill for their hometowns for decades. It's the perfect area for populist parties.

Thanks, that answers my question...that would also explain there being a lot of Linke/AfD switchers there i guess

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east?

Because it's Pomerania and it's always been that way inclined.

Indeed:

[DavidB.]

The difference between FDP and NPD is now less than 150 votes.

[DavidB.]

Result (Zweitstimmen):
SPD 30.6
AfD 20.8
CDU 19.0
Linke 13.2
Grüne 4.8 (rip)
FDP 3.0 (eventually ended up larger than NPD)
NPD 3.0
Animals 1.2

Seats (total 71):
SPD 26 (-1)
AfD 18 (+18)
CDU 16 (-2)
Die Linke 11 (-3)

SPD and CDU have 42, a comfortable majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[jaichind]

For once AfD did not over-perform exit polls. 

[Boston Bread]

Based on this demographic the AfD gained more from non-voters than from establishment/left parties (SPD, CDU, Linke)


(sorry for quality, taken from Twitter)

[Bumaye]

By the way yesterday also Schwerin, the capital of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, elected a new mayor.

Die Linke: 31,6% 
SPD: 18,9% 
CDU: 18,2% 
UB: 16,1%
Grüne: 4,5%

(UB is some kind of surrogate-AfD)

That means it stays the same: There is not one single state capital controlled by a CDU/CSU mayor.

[Zinneke]

Anybody have the results for Rostock?

[DavidB.]

Anybody have the results for Rostock?

https://beta.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article157952565/Wahldebakel-ist-fuer-Merkel-peinlich-und-eine-Warnung.html

[Tender Branson]

BTW, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has one of the best state parliament buildings:

[Sozialliberal]

Well, Mecklenburg-West Pomerania has always been the worst state for the Greens (rural + high unemployment). They probably wouldn't have entered the state parliament in 2011 if it hadn't been for the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. Just take a look at the other state election results from that time: The Greens were ridiculously strong.

Anybody have the results for Rostock?

Results for the whole city of Rostock, largest city in the state and the only one with a population of more than 100,000 (about 206,000 currently):
32.6% SPD
16.8% AfD
16.6% The Left
15.4% CDU
8.0% Greens
3.1% FDP
1.6% NPD
1.6% Die PARTEI
1.2% Animal Welfare Party
3.0% other parties

source: http://service.mvnet.de/wahlen/2016_land/showHtmlContent.php?folder=2016_land&datei=L_Abs_Zweit.htm
I added up the respective constituency votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Beezer]

AfD appears to have fully recovered from its Baden-Württemberg anti-semitism/leadership row a few weeks back:

[DL]

Looks Germany is doomed to be governed by a CDU-SPD "grand coalition" in perpetuity - much like Austria.

Can anyone see ANY way in which the CDU can govern without the SPD (or vice-versa) in the foreseeable future?