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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655480 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1600 on: November 21, 2016, 06:44:48 PM »

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party. Tongue

Sell Bayern to Austria
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palandio
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« Reply #1601 on: November 22, 2016, 03:07:49 AM »

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party. Tongue
I fear that this would be a total nightmare. Some huge centrist amalgam that just cannot be voted out. But because people would grow tired at some point, it would lose its majority and have to go into a coalition with either the CSU/AfD or the New Left. And if the coalition is Center-New Left, then prepare for the CSU/AfD to rise to 35%, 40%, etc. Absolutely horrible.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1602 on: November 22, 2016, 06:59:00 AM »

AfD with its best result ever in a (regional) poll:

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Beezer
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« Reply #1603 on: November 22, 2016, 07:04:12 AM »

And she's done such a fantastic job of handling these crises.

Well, she actually did.

Angela Merkel gets a lot of heat from both the far-right and the far-left for her crisis management, but considering the circumstances I can't honestly see how anyone could have done it any better.

And I say that as someone who doesn't prefer his party to enter a coalition with the CDU in 2017 (mainly because I don't see a lot of compatibility with the CDU regarding social and fiscal policies).

The eurozone crisis is still festering below the surface. Her handling of these crises has likely contributed to Britain's decision to leave the EU and a general spike in euroscepticism across the continent. Her decision to open the borders in late August of 2015 had disastrous consequences, both for Germany, the wider EU as well as many migrants who were duped into believing Germany had something to offer them (I know we'll disagree on that one). Thanks to Merkel we're now dependent on the whims of a semi-dictatorial regime in Turkey. Others will want to get the same deals. Even the CDU is now slowly but surely embracing policies that others called for a year ago (doing more to dissuade people from migrating to Europe, e.g. returning migrants to African shores) which indicates just how misguided her policies have been.
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Zanas
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« Reply #1604 on: November 22, 2016, 10:18:27 AM »

Wait ... what ?

TV-judge Alexander Hold is from the Free Voters ?

You learn something new every day ... Tongue
So what is a TV-judge actually ?
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DL
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« Reply #1605 on: November 22, 2016, 10:31:05 AM »

Seems to me that it is very fanciful to think that Merkel could form any sort of government other than another "grand coalition" - the consensus of all the polls these days is that the CDU is down around 32% and the SPD is around 23% - so the two parties combined would easily get over 505 of the seats in the Bundestag - and the math doesnt work for any other combination...unless anyone thinks Merkel would ever consider a CDU/FDP/AfD coalition - which is clearly not in the cards. One thing for sure is that CDU+Green will be no where near 50% and CDU+FDP is also no where near 50%.

Some have said that Merkel actually LIKES the grand coalition since her instincts are very centrist and it enables her to disempower the more rightwing factions within her own party and instead run a more "consensual" government of the centre. I suspect that If the CDU/CSU had a slim absolute majority - Merkel would have had a hard time getting her own party to go along with her refugee policy.

One thing i wonder about is what happens to the ratio of cabinet seats to each party in the grand coalition? Last election the CDU took 42% and SPD took 26% - so the SPD took 38% of the two party vote...current polls have it more like CDU 32 and SPD 23 whihc would give the SPD 42% of the two party vote - would that mean an extra seat at the cabinet table in a new Grand Coalition?

Also, what happens after Merkel finally quits? Then are all bets off and if the SPD had a more popular leader than Merkel's successor, could we see the SPD regain first place hypothetically?
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crals
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« Reply #1606 on: November 22, 2016, 01:37:52 PM »

Yes, the maths make any other combination than the grand coalition impossible at the moment, but even if there's a majority for the left or the christians+greens those coalitions seem hard to pull off. It's a shame one of those wasn't attempted after the 2013 election, looks like it'll be a while until there's a viable alternative.
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palandio
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« Reply #1607 on: November 22, 2016, 02:05:07 PM »

Wait ... what ?

TV-judge Alexander Hold is from the Free Voters ?

You learn something new every day ... Tongue
So what is a TV-judge actually ?
There was a court show called "Richter Alexander Hold" (i.e. Judge Alexander Hold) on the private TV network Sat. 1, starring the same A. Hold that is now the candidate for the Free Voters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Court_show
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1608 on: November 24, 2016, 07:08:18 AM »

Martin Schulz is leaving the European Parliament to run for the Bundestag in 2017, fueling speculation that he'll become either foreign minister or Chancellor-candidate or both.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #1609 on: November 28, 2016, 12:21:33 AM »

And she's done such a fantastic job of handling these crises.

Well, she actually did.

Angela Merkel gets a lot of heat from both the far-right and the far-left for her crisis management, but considering the circumstances I can't honestly see how anyone could have done it any better.

And I say that as someone who doesn't prefer his party to enter a coalition with the CDU in 2017 (mainly because I don't see a lot of compatibility with the CDU regarding social and fiscal policies).

The eurozone crisis is still festering below the surface. Her handling of these crises has likely contributed to Britain's decision to leave the EU and a general spike in euroscepticism across the continent. Her decision to open the borders in late August of 2015 had disastrous consequences, both for Germany, the wider EU as well as many migrants who were duped into believing Germany had something to offer them (I know we'll disagree on that one). Thanks to Merkel we're now dependent on the whims of a semi-dictatorial regime in Turkey. Others will want to get the same deals. Even the CDU is now slowly but surely embracing policies that others called for a year ago (doing more to dissuade people from migrating to Europe, e.g. returning migrants to African shores) which indicates just how misguided her policies have been.

Glad someone gets it! Spot-on on every point.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #1610 on: November 28, 2016, 12:26:09 AM »

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party. Tongue

Die Linke should adopt East German-style policies toward immigration in order to compete better. It would certainty throw a wrench into the traditional left-right divide and help the party consolidate more support in its eastern heartland. Attack Merkel from her left and her right, in other words.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1611 on: November 28, 2016, 03:44:24 AM »

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party. Tongue

Die Linke should adopt East German-style policies toward immigration in order to compete better. It would certainty throw a wrench into the traditional left-right divide and help the party consolidate more support in its eastern heartland. Attack Merkel from her left and her right, in other words.

This would most likely cause the Left Party to split into two parties.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #1612 on: November 28, 2016, 01:31:32 PM »

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party. Tongue

Die Linke should adopt East German-style policies toward immigration in order to compete better. It would certainty throw a wrench into the traditional left-right divide and help the party consolidate more support in its eastern heartland. Attack Merkel from her left and her right, in other words.

This would most likely cause the Left Party to split into two parties.

Perhaps, but I think that it could be a winning strategy. Eastern Germans, polls show, have little patience for mass immigration and are very hostile to Islam. Considering how important sex equality is in the east, and how irreligious it is, this should not be much surprise. Unlike so many naive idealists these days, eastern Germans seem to think with their brains. Their Wessi counterparts would do well to follow their example.

I still think that the SPD should run Thilo Sarrazin!
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1613 on: November 28, 2016, 02:19:40 PM »

   Iratemoderate, this is one of my political dreams/fantasies , of left of center parties embracing a low immigration policy, like Robert Fico in Slovakia. It would be fascinating to see how this would work out in reality in Germany.  Would there be enough of an electorate to back such a party in significant numbers?
  That's why I'd like to see a FPO-SPO coalition in Austria, to keep the FPO from going too far in a neo-liberal direction, and bring the SPO back to representing a pro Austrian working class attitude by going for immigration restriction.  One can dream this at any rate.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1614 on: November 28, 2016, 02:40:40 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2016, 02:42:20 PM by President Johnson »

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party. Tongue

CDU and CSU should split, yes. CSU leader Seehofer now stated that he won't go into another coalition without an upper limit for refugees (200,000 per year). Merkel will never agree on that. But if she wants to form a government with the Greens (and likely the FDP if that isn't enough for a majority), she badly needs the CSU. That actually means, we may end up with a CDU/SPD coalition afterwards. After these four years, both parties would be dead.

The Left should also split. The eastern moderate wing should be integrated in the SPD and the others form a communist party.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #1615 on: November 28, 2016, 02:48:04 PM »

   Iratemoderate, this is one of my political dreams/fantasies , of left of center parties embracing a low immigration policy, like Robert Fico in Slovakia. It would be fascinating to see how this would work out in reality in Germany.  Would there be enough of an electorate to back such a party in significant numbers?
  That's why I'd like to see a FPO-SPO coalition in Austria, to keep the FPO from going too far in a neo-liberal direction, and bring the SPO back to representing a pro Austrian working class attitude by going for immigration restriction.  One can dream this at any rate.

It cannot happen soon enough. For the record, Fico is a pretty poor social democrat, but I am all for these types of politicians pursuing a saner immigration policy.

Whether fiscally or socially, it makes no sense for leftists to embrace mass immigration. The reasons are, of course, dogged adherence to idealism and electoral considerations.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #1616 on: November 28, 2016, 02:51:15 PM »

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party. Tongue

CDU and CSU should split, yes. CSU leader Seehofer now stated that he won't go into another coalition without an upper limit for refugees (200,000 per year). Merkel will never agree on that. But if she wants to form a government with the Greens (and likely the FDP if that isn't enough for a majority), she badly needs the CSU. That actually means, we may end up with a CDU/SPD coalition afterwards. After these four years, both parties would be dead.

The Left should also split. The eastern moderate wing should be integrated in the SPD and the others form a communist party.

I cannot stand either party, but at least the CSU is right on immigration.

The SPD should never have debased itself by forming a coalition with Merkel. I am all for pragmatism, but Germany takes realpolitik too far sometimes.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1617 on: November 28, 2016, 03:58:06 PM »

Perhaps, but I think that it could be a winning strategy. Eastern Germans, polls show, have little patience for mass immigration and are very hostile to Islam. Considering how important sex equality is in the east, and how irreligious it is, this should not be much surprise. Unlike so many naive idealists these days, eastern Germans seem to think with their brains. Their Wessi counterparts would do well to follow their example.

Assuming that you're not a troll, I have to say that you don't have a clue about East Germany whatsoever.
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palandio
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« Reply #1618 on: November 28, 2016, 05:04:37 PM »

Die Linke is a complex political subject that can't just be shifted around through the political issues.

There are deep cleavages between ex-PDS and ex-WASG, east and west, pragmatists and hardliners (with a strong correlation between these).

On the immigration issue on the other hand, the permissive stance is absolutely majoritarian. The only outspoken critic is Sahra Wagenknecht (ex-PDS ultra-hardliner). The rest of the party is mostly quite idealistic about this issue and couldn't easily digest a change of direction.

Finally the party's voter demographics are changing. Die Linke is growing among younger, urban alternative demographics. Changing its stance on immigration might hurt the party's chances with these new voters and the risk is that long-time eastern voters might not necessarily come back.

A party left of center that is more restrictive on immigration would be interesting in the sense that it would be entertaining to watch how things turn out. But it's unlikely to happen. And if it happens, Sarrazin would certainly not be a credibly left-wing figure to play a role in it. And Wagenknecht and Palmer will stay with the Left and the Greens respectively.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #1619 on: November 28, 2016, 05:09:11 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2016, 05:14:04 PM by iratemoderate »

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Assuming that you're being dismissive of my claims out of ignorance, it has been consistently documented in the literature and in regular polling that eastern Germans are significantly cooler to immigration and Islam than their western counterparts and other western Europeans.

Here are some polls just from Google. You can find social science literature on the phenomenon elsewhere.

http://www.thelocal.de/20140807/islam-does-not-belong-in-germany-poll

http://www.dw.com/en/alarmed-but-willing-to-help-how-germans-feel-about-the-surge-of-refugees/a-18693591

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/religion/2010-12-03-muslimgerman03_ST_N.htm

Support for Afd and the NPD is also strongest in the east. Obviously, these groups attract support from the extreme right, but from my conservations with eastern Germans and an examination of the literature, it becomes clear that there is an undercurrent of anxiety toward both Islam and immigration in society except among young idealists.
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iratemoderate
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« Reply #1620 on: November 28, 2016, 05:10:28 PM »

Die Linke is a complex political subject that can't just be shifted around through the political issues.

There are deep cleavages between ex-PDS and ex-WASG, east and west, pragmatists and hardliners (with a strong correlation between these).

On the immigration issue on the other hand, the permissive stance is absolutely majoritarian. The only outspoken critic is Sahra Wagenknecht (ex-PDS ultra-hardliner). The rest of the party is mostly quite idealistic about this issue and couldn't easily digest a change of direction.

Finally the party's voter demographics are changing. Die Linke is growing among younger, urban alternative demographics. Changing its stance on immigration might hurt the party's chances with these new voters and the risk is that long-time eastern voters might not necessarily come back.

A party left of center that is more restrictive on immigration would be interesting in the sense that it would be entertaining to watch how things turn out. But it's unlikely to happen. And if it happens, Sarrazin would certainly not be a credibly left-wing figure to play a role in it. And Wagenknecht and Palmer will stay with the Left and the Greens respectively.

Fascinating information! Thanks for the analysis. I am going to look into some of the people you mentioned.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1621 on: November 28, 2016, 05:30:15 PM »

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Assuming that you're being dismissive of my claims out of ignorance, it has been consistently documented in the literature and in regular polling that eastern Germans are significantly cooler to immigration and Islam than their western counterparts and other western Europeans.

Yes, but that's NOT. A. GOOD. THING.

Polls also show that East Germans would also be much more comfortable with a dictatorship than West Germans and other unpleasant things. Statistically speaking, there are also more likely to set a refugee home on fire or beat up an immigrant.

Again, that's NOT. A. GOOD. THING.

Didn't get it yet?

IT'S. NOT. A. GOOD. THING.

Do you understand now???

And I was born East Germany btw. So stop the  lecturing me about it, alright?
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jaichind
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« Reply #1622 on: December 23, 2016, 09:11:47 AM »

Bild reports that after the terrorist attack of Berlin INSA poll now has relative to a poll right before the attack

CDU/CSU    31.5 (-1.5)
SPD            20.5 (-1.0)
FDP              6.0 (-0.5)
AfD            15.5 (+2.5)

Bild did not seem to indicate what are the support for Linke or Greens
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1623 on: December 23, 2016, 09:48:41 PM »

Bild reports that after the terrorist attack of Berlin INSA poll now has relative to a poll right before the attack

CDU/CSU    31.5 (-1.5)
SPD            20.5 (-1.0)
FDP              6.0 (-0.5)
AfD            15.5 (+2.5)

Bild did not seem to indicate what are the support for Linke or Greens

Its Linke 11.5 % (nc) and Greens 10.0 % (nc).
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #1624 on: December 23, 2016, 11:12:01 PM »

Looks like the size of Merkel's mandate and coalition will be determined by how close to the election the most recent major terrorist attack was
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