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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655520 times)
Klartext89
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« Reply #1700 on: January 24, 2017, 06:19:56 AM »

I wrote a long text and then I was logged out and the text was blown away... What a year 2000 Website...

I'll go to lunch now to cool my anger now and write it again later...

*piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep* *piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep*
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Intell
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« Reply #1701 on: January 24, 2017, 06:53:49 AM »

I wrote a long text and then I was logged out and the text was blown away... What a year 2000 Website...

I'll go to lunch now to cool my anger now and write it again later...

*piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep* *piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep*

The internet censors fascists, there's hope for us all.

(I'm joking of course.)
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Klartext89
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« Reply #1702 on: January 24, 2017, 07:15:30 AM »

2nd round, still upset...

1. Austria: There are many different reasons and not one unique truth. The last debate was also a factor, I agree. Hofer was really emotionally and I could really understand him while knowing that it will beackfire. The Left wanted to assasinate him over a year, they attacked him totally low, the Gertrude video was the most shameful thing I've ever seen. The Left has absoluetly no class and should be targeted with the same: Videos in which victims of foreigner/refugee violence/crime (or family members of those who can't talk anymore) thank the Left for being lobbyists of the suspects and causing this climate in the country.

An anecdote from the parents of a friend of mine (we studied together) who is from Austria. His parents voted van der Bellen because they thought it would be easier with him to get a FPÖ-ÖVP government with Chancellor Kurz (cause Strache would be denied the appointment). I declined to comment out of respect but my friend couldn't believe it either.

2.  I agree with everything you said (DavidB) about German voters, but I think it's totally irrelevant whether a moderate like Prof Meuther or a "radical" like Höcke is leading the party.

In my County in Eastern Baden-Württemberg, there's a precinct I would like to focus on explaining:

In 2011 state election they voted (appr. 70% turnout, 1.026 eligible voters):

CDU 52,5%
Greens 18,5%
SPD 16,4%
Left 4,2%
FDP 4,1%
Republicans 1,8%
Pirats 1,3%
NPD 0,6%
ödp 0,6%

In 2014/15 a asylum center was put in the direct neighborhood. Crime rate went up, it was loud at day and night, women couldn't walk to the Train Station alone anymore, pollution was going up, it was a mess.
There were town hall meetings in which they really made their voice heard and were really upset about the current situation, Mayor and Representatives learned the hard way to sell Merkels policy.

In the 2016 state elections the result looked as follows (appr. 75% turnout, 1.032 eligible voters):

CDU 43,2% (-9,3)
Greens 19,9% (+1,4)
SPD 7,6% (-8,8)
Left 2,4% (-1,4)
FDP 5,6% (1,5)
Republicans 0,3% (-1,2)
Pirats 0,0% (-1,3)
NPD 1,5% (+0,9)
ödp 0,8% (+0,2)
Alfa 0,8% (new)
AfD 17,9% (new)

My conclusion is, that most German voters want to be upset about the policies, in the ballot box they vote for "this guy is nice", because "my grandma always voted it" etc.

A moderate candidate like Prof Meuther as head of the AfD campaign in the election couldn't get a really big result, I doubt that anyone of the 18% voting AfD would have voted different if Höcke was the candidate.

Because of 70 years of brainwashing in schools, in the media and everywhere else in this country, every party beside CDU has a ceiling between 15% and 25%. The persons are mainly irrelevant. My CDU parents will always prefer a CDU man telling them that they will change everything they did in the last years instead of an AfD man telling it.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #1703 on: January 24, 2017, 07:17:23 AM »

I wrote a long text and then I was logged out and the text was blown away... What a year 2000 Website...

I'll go to lunch now to cool my anger now and write it again later...

*piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep* *piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep*

The internet censors fascists, there's hope for us all.

(I'm joking of course.)

Of course you are, otherwise you wouldn't be able to post ;-) (I joked, too :-D)

But it's nice to have a fanboy, hopefully you're not searching for my posts exclusively.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #1704 on: January 24, 2017, 09:05:10 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2017, 09:17:30 AM by Klartext89 »

German media outlets are reporting that SPD chairman and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel will step down from the SPD frontrunner position also known as "Kanzlerkandidat" (candidate for chancellor) tonight when SPD leading politicians wll meet and discuss the election campaign.

Seems that he delivered an interview to weekly magazine "Stern" in which he declared to quit the Job and is criticising Angela Merkel.

It's not confirmed yet but the cover of the magazine is already leaked:

http://meedia.de/2017/01/24/noch-vor-treffen-der-spd-parteispitze-sigmar-gabriel-verraet-dem-stern-seine-absage-an-kanzlerkandidatur/

Instead of Gabriel, it is widely expected that either Martin Schulz (former President of the European Parliament) or Olaf Scholz (First Mayor of Hamburg) will become the successor.

Edit: Schulz confirmed. Gabriel also to step down as Party chairman and Minister of Economy, he wants to become Foreign Affairs Minister.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1705 on: January 24, 2017, 09:07:47 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2017, 09:15:13 AM by Old Europe »

Breaking: Sigmar Gabriel won't run for Chancellor. He also intends to step down as SPD chairman and plans to succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier as foreign minister in February instead.

Martin Schulz is supposed to become Chancellor-candidate and SPD chairman now.

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-01/sigmar-gabriel-spd-kanzlerkandidatur
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Diouf
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« Reply #1706 on: January 24, 2017, 10:07:25 AM »

All polls have shown Schulz to be far more popular than Gabriel as Chancellor. Below ARD from December. Interesting to see whether this will be reflected in the SPD's numbers.

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Klartext89
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« Reply #1707 on: January 24, 2017, 10:07:37 AM »

Germany, or better spoken the coalition Partner SPD, is a laughing stock:

Brigitte Zypries, a former Justice Department (Attorney General) Minister, who never worked in the private sector, is becoming the new Economy Minister.

Sigmar Gabriel on the international floor will be totally embarrassing, even more than nominating an anti-German, anti-democracy, arrogant, EU-extremist frontrunner...

If it weren't my country, I would be laughing, too.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #1708 on: January 24, 2017, 10:11:04 AM »

All polls have shown Schulz to be far more popular than Gabriel as Chancellor. Below ARD from December. Interesting to see whether this will be reflected in the SPD's numbers.



I doubt that.

As soon as the people will learn more about Schulz than seeing him shaking hands in 30 second Tagesschau Videos, his numbers will fall to Gabriel level or even lower. There's no person who represents everything what is wrong with todays politics better than this guy. Washington is open and near to the people compared to him.

Also, in 2009 Steinmeiers numbers were at appr. 30%, 2013 Steinbrück had even 35%. Both times, the SPD couldn't reflect.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1709 on: January 24, 2017, 10:12:50 AM »

All polls have shown Schulz to be far more popular than Gabriel as Chancellor. Below ARD from December. Interesting to see whether this will be reflected in the SPD's numbers.



I'd expect a bit of a poll bump for the SPD now. Question is whether they will manage to sustain it.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1710 on: January 24, 2017, 10:18:12 AM »

i respect the hell out of schulz but i am not into believing someone who worked in brussels for such a long term can suddenly break away in his home country.

didn't work in countries like egypt, won't work in germany.

but if i would make an educated guess..... gabriel got burn-out, scholz knows he can't win with merkel still on top of the CDU and schulz seemingly wants his 15 minutes in the sunlight.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1711 on: January 24, 2017, 10:27:30 AM »


Gabriel's wife is also pregnant, with the birth being expected sometime in spring.
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ag
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« Reply #1712 on: January 24, 2017, 10:29:35 AM »

i respect the hell out of schulz but i am not into believing someone who worked in brussels for such a long term can suddenly break away in his home country.

didn't work in countries like egypt, won't work in germany.

but if i would make an educated guess..... gabriel got burn-out, scholz knows he can't win with merkel still on top of the CDU and schulz seemingly wants his 15 minutes in the sunlight.

All true, but, still a good option for SPD. At least, is there alternative is both a solid liberal and somebody who has not been a part of the government they are trying to replace.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #1713 on: January 24, 2017, 11:00:00 AM »

i respect the hell out of schulz but i am not into believing someone who worked in brussels for such a long term can suddenly break away in his home country.

didn't work in countries like egypt, won't work in germany.

but if i would make an educated guess..... gabriel got burn-out, scholz knows he can't win with merkel still on top of the CDU and schulz seemingly wants his 15 minutes in the sunlight.

Schulz is to the right of Gabriel.

All true, but, still a good option for SPD. At least, is there alternative is both a solid liberal and somebody who has not been a part of the government they are trying to replace.
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ag
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« Reply #1714 on: January 24, 2017, 11:03:26 AM »

i respect the hell out of schulz but i am not into believing someone who worked in brussels for such a long term can suddenly break away in his home country.

didn't work in countries like egypt, won't work in germany.

but if i would make an educated guess..... gabriel got burn-out, scholz knows he can't win with merkel still on top of the CDU and schulz seemingly wants his 15 minutes in the sunlight.

Schulz is to the right of Gabriel.

All true, but, still a good option for SPD. At least, is there alternative is both a solid liberal and somebody who has not been a part of the government they are trying to replace.

I never use the word "liberal" in its American sense Smiley Schulz is a solid liberal.

So, of course, is Merkel.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #1715 on: January 24, 2017, 11:09:10 AM »

i respect the hell out of schulz but i am not into believing someone who worked in brussels for such a long term can suddenly break away in his home country.

didn't work in countries like egypt, won't work in germany.

but if i would make an educated guess..... gabriel got burn-out, scholz knows he can't win with merkel still on top of the CDU and schulz seemingly wants his 15 minutes in the sunlight.

Schulz is to the right of Gabriel.

All true, but, still a good option for SPD. At least, is there alternative is both a solid liberal and somebody who has not been a part of the government they are trying to replace.

depends on the definition of the word.

i think schulz is more liberal in the modern way but less classical left-wing, yeah.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #1716 on: January 24, 2017, 11:34:32 AM »

Ugh, yet another country where I don't feel comfortable supporting any party. Die Linke is out of the question because I'm not fond of the Stasi. The SPD is an increasingly pathetic party that no longer reflects its respectable traditions and rich history, something that really depresses me. The Greens? Nope. The love for Merkel and the CDU in the US sickens me.

At this point, Merkel returning as chancellor in a grand coalition seems like the least bad option but this is very untenable and supporters of a basic framework of political liberalism in Europe or Germany shouldn't be content with this menu of choices.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #1717 on: January 24, 2017, 12:15:51 PM »

i have for years wished for a socially liberal, pro-welfare state, pro economy, scandinavian-like european system, which is economically liberal but middle-taxing, no race to the bottom, fitting social safety net, maybe even including a basic income....

i raged against merkel for years for her small-mindedness (for example regarding greece) and making germany into a stumbling block for history....but i learned to love her since the alternatives got WAAAAY out of hand and the ukraine crisis started a fight against liberalism in all of europe.

the modern left will be pro-liberalism and the modern conservative must be pro-welfare or both center parties will go down in the west imho.

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palandio
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« Reply #1718 on: January 24, 2017, 02:26:47 PM »

Ugh, yet another country where I don't feel comfortable supporting any party. Die Linke is out of the question because I'm not fond of the Stasi. The SPD is an increasingly pathetic party that no longer reflects its respectable traditions and rich history, something that really depresses me. The Greens? Nope. The love for Merkel and the CDU in the US sickens me.

At this point, Merkel returning as chancellor in a grand coalition seems like the least bad option but this is very untenable and supporters of a basic framework of political liberalism in Europe or Germany shouldn't be content with this menu of choices.

That.

On the short term "staying on course" might be the least risky option, on the long run it might increase the centrifugal forces. Policy-wise the grand coalition may be the best remaining realistic option, but for long-term political stability it's very unhealthy.

i have for years wished for a socially liberal, pro-welfare state, pro economy, scandinavian-like european system, which is economically liberal but middle-taxing, no race to the bottom, fitting social safety net, maybe even including a basic income....

i raged against merkel for years for her small-mindedness (for example regarding greece) and making germany into a stumbling block for history....but i learned to love her since the alternatives got WAAAAY out of hand and the ukraine crisis started a fight against liberalism in all of europe.

Sooner or later there will always be alternatives. If it isn't you, it's someone else.

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The difference being what? Why have two parties? Just for folkloristic reasons, like in Ireland? I understand that having a consensus on certain things in a society helps. But what when the society can't find a consensus on certain issues?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1719 on: January 24, 2017, 02:27:23 PM »

Breaking: Sigmar Gabriel won't run for Chancellor. He also intends to step down as SPD chairman and plans to succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier as foreign minister in February instead.

Martin Schulz is supposed to become Chancellor-candidate and SPD chairman now.

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-01/sigmar-gabriel-spd-kanzlerkandidatur

Good news. Sigmar is a great guy and an excellent political operator, but just not popular.

Martin Schulz will make a fine candidate. A people's man and strongly pro-EU. As local SPD official, I'm ready to go into the campaign and fight as hell to get him elected.
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ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
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« Reply #1720 on: January 24, 2017, 03:21:17 PM »

if schulz wants he could make something big out of the recently published hits on his lacking formal education.

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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1721 on: January 24, 2017, 04:09:09 PM »

Curious manner this decision came to be. Everybody (including everybody in the SPD) seemed to expect Gabriel as Chancellor-candidate at this point. And today, he said "screw it, let's nominate Schulz" out of the blue. Most of the editorials seem to praise him for voluntarily putting personal ambitions aside so far.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1722 on: January 25, 2017, 05:43:26 AM »

I was reminded of this: why is the electoral threshold in the European elections considered to be unconstitutional but the threshold in the federal election is not?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1723 on: January 25, 2017, 06:48:04 AM »

I was reminded of this: why is the electoral threshold in the European elections considered to be unconstitutional but the threshold in the federal election is not?

Because the federal elections are important, and the European elections are unimportant.

Well, actually the reasoning was like this: The Bundestag parties must be able to form a stable government and therefore it is of an advantage to have fewer parties in the parliament. On the other hand, the European Comission isn't formed by the European Parliament as such so it doesn't really matter if there are a trillion parties represented in the parliament.
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Klartext89
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« Reply #1724 on: January 25, 2017, 06:59:35 AM »

I was reminded of this: why is the electoral threshold in the European elections considered to be unconstitutional but the threshold in the federal election is not?

Because the federal elections are important, and the European elections are unimportant.

Well, actually the reasoning was like this: The Bundestag parties must be able to form a stable government and therefore it is of an advantage to have fewer parties in the parliament. On the other hand, the European Comission isn't formed by the European Parliament as such so it doesn't really matter if there are a trillion parties represented in the parliament.

Well, that's the old parties politicians answer, which is highly laughable cause without CDU and Left every party is having coalitions with each other on state levels.

We have CDU dealing with Greens and SPD (there are no CDU/FDP coalitions left but we all know that they would if they could), we have SPD dealing with CDU, Greens and FDP. We have Greens and FDP in coalitions with SPD, we have Left in coalitons with SPD and Greens.

Forming a stable government isn't harder if 4-6% small parties enter Bundestag. The only reasons why the highly party/politically influenced High Court isn't intervening and is currently upholding this ridiculous situation in which you don't have thresholds in local and European level but on state and federal level, is that every small party seat would mean that a Rep from an old party would lose its seat ;-)

Appr. 7 million people decided to participate on the democratic process and cast a vote in the last federal election but aren't represented in parliament (http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/tabres.pl?datafile=btw13.txt) - this is simply shameful.
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