German Elections & Politics

[Sozialliberal]

Most polls are in field for 5 to 7 days...A poll released today would likely have been fielded partially pre and partially post the Schultz announcement. Wait another week and then we will have some real polls.

 
 
So we have some first Post-Schulz nomination polls and it definitely helps the SPD. In the projection of "Forschungsgruppe Wahlen" they climbed 3% in one week and in today's Ipsos poll the left leaning parties have 44%, the highest numbers they ever had in an Ipsos poll. 
 
Today Schulz officially became the candidate of the SPD and I can say that they are more euphoric then I ever saw them. He had a great speech today in the Willy Brandt Haus, the headquarter of the party where he mentioned first points of his campaign. Sounded pretty Sanders-esque to me. Bringing people together, fair taxation for huge corporations, justice and solidarity, fighting climate change, stopping the rise of the far-right in Europe and defend our democracy and our values against all attackers. As someone who likes bashing the SPD I have to say I liked it a lot.

And that's coming from Schulz, the guy who got Juncker off the hook after the Lux Leaks scandal had been revealed. Not convincing.

Schulz is charismatic and good at giving speeches, but so was Gerhard Schröder.

[Zinneke]

Yeah, I've read several articles with Schulz covering for his MEPs and their corruption.

[Tender Branson]

YouGov poll:

32.5% CDU/CSU (n.c. compared with last week)
26.0% SPD (+5.0)
13.0% AfD (-1.5)
10.5% Left (-0.5)
  7.5% Greens (-1.0)
  6.5% FDP (-1.0)
  4.0% Others (-1.0)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Schulzmentum!

[President Johnson]

YouGov poll:

32.5% CDU/CSU (n.c. compared with last week)
26.0% SPD (+5.0)
13.0% AfD (-1.5)
10.5% Left (-0.5)
  7.5% Greens (-1.0)
  6.5% FDP (-1.0)
  4.0% Others (-1.0)

That is yuge. Come on Schulz, we can throw Merkel out of the chancellery.

[ApatheticAustrian]

INSA making bold predictions as always.

[Hifly]

YouGov poll:

32.5% CDU/CSU (n.c. compared with last week)
26.0% SPD (+5.0)
13.0% AfD (-1.5)
10.5% Left (-0.5)
  7.5% Greens (-1.0)
  6.5% FDP (-1.0)
  4.0% Others (-1.0)

That is yuge. Come on Schulz, we can throw Merkel out of the chancellery.

Can we place bets?

[Beezer]

The guy spent 2 decades in Brussels. I'm pretty sure the CDU is sitting on an array of scandals that it'll release in due time.

[MAINEiac4434]

Shameless plug for Reddit.com/r/the_schulz

[ApatheticAustrian]

The guy spent 2 decades in Brussels. I'm pretty sure the CDU is sitting on an array of scandals that it'll release in due time.

the cdu is risking alienating their lower middle class supporters if they hit him the wrong way...he surely is a more tricky enemy than gabriel.

otherwise i agree, there is too much anti-eu sentiment to surive.

[Klartext89]

The guy spent 2 decades in Brussels. I'm pretty sure the CDU is sitting on an array of scandals that it'll release in due time.

the cdu is risking alienating their lower middle class supporters if they hit him the wrong way...he surely is a more tricky enemy than gabriel.

otherwise i agree, there is too much anti-eu sentiment to surive.

Schulz gets hyped by the media in a scale never seen before. They are cheering about him like minstrel in former times about their King. It's pretty funny and I'm very sure that this anti-democratic, anti-German wolf in sheep costume will get a beating in September.

[DavidB.]

Haha, Schulzmentum is absolutely unreal to me as a Dutch citizen. The guy is hated here.

[Klartext89]

Haha, Schulzmentum is absolutely unreal to me as a Dutch citizen. The guy is hated here.

Not only there, he's hated in Germany aswell. These Fake media polls can't hide it Long.

[pilskonzept]

Not only there, he's hated in Germany aswell. These Fake media polls can't hide it Long.

By AfD activists, sure. Otherwise he is (was) just too unknown.

That 5% bump in the latest INSA/YouGov poll is probably a house effect though, or rather online vs. telephone poll effect. Just like their notorious lowballing of the CDU vote.

[Beezer]

Haha, Schulzmentum is absolutely unreal to me as a Dutch citizen. The guy is hated here.

I suppose it's similar to the "fake" convention bumps you get in the US. SPD voters are probably more likely now to take part in polls and Schulz has moreover been receiving non-stop media coverage free of charge over the past few days. Eventually that'll die down of course.

[ApatheticAustrian]

a german eurocrat is more popular in germany? unheard of

[Beezer]

SPD + 5 with Forsa as well.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[Representative simossad]

Haha, Schulzmentum is absolutely unreal to me as a Dutch citizen. The guy is hated here.

Not only there, he's hated in Germany aswell. These Fake media polls can't hide it Long.

Can we please stop saying that everything we don't approve is fake? Thank you.

[Vosem]

It's going to be very funny when the AfD surge takes mostly from the CDU, causing the SPD to emerge as the larger party in the coalition and inadvertently electing Martin Schulz as Chancellor

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's going to be very funny when the AfD surge takes mostly from the CDU, causing the SPD to emerge as the larger party in the coalition and inadvertently electing Martin Schulz as Chancellor

Not gonna happen.

The best/only chance for the SPD to get Martin Schulz elected as Chancellor is to form a coalition with the Greens and the Left. But even then, the SPD would have fewer seats in the Bundestag than the CDU/CSU.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the Afd is filled with many old fdp and cdu voters.

to outbalance it, merkel has filled her party with former spd/green voters.

imho nowaday the spd electorate is closer to the afd than the average cdu voter.

[Middle-aged Europe]

26% seems to be the absolute SPD peak, lol.

We'll see... needless to say the SPD isn't exactly what it used to be.

[palandio]

the Afd is filled with many old fdp and cdu voters.

to outbalance it, merkel has filled her party with former spd/green voters.

imho nowaday the spd electorate is closer to the afd than the average cdu voter.

While not completely wrong, this seems like an overstatement to me. I'm aware that the electorate has become more mobile, but particularly the CDU still has a comparably huge loyal base, a group much bigger than the former SPD/Green voters who now love Merkel and would actually vote CDU because of that. Sub-groups that move from one group to another can of course change averages in both groups, but how much depends highly on their size in relation to the groups.

[DL]

26% seems to be the absolute SPD peak, lol.

That's possible right now when the CDU is led. Y Merkel who is wayyy more appealing to SPD and Green voters than any past CDU leader. Once she steps down and the CDU picks a new leader who is more of a traditional right wing old man, who knows how voting patterns will change

[Middle-aged Europe]

26% seems to be the absolute SPD peak, lol.

Ummm, there's a poll coming out this evening who proves that wrong. More at 6:00.