German Elections & Politics

[mileslunn]

Maybe we'll give the Dutch or Belgians a run for their money when it comes to the length of negotiations. The way I see it there are plenty of roadblocks to the two likely coalitions.

Grand Coalition: If the SPD manages to beat its previous record low (looking more likely each day), I just can't see how they can then enter government once again unless the party really wants to come in third at the next election. Of course they could sell it as the sole viable option with them only entering the government in the interest of democratic stability.

Jamaica: Can the CSU really share a cabinet table with the Greens? State elections are coming up in Bavaria next year. The FDP and Greens will also be aware of the fact that Merkel has a habit of destroying all junior coalition partners. There are plenty of integrationist projects on the horizon and the FDP will remember that its tacit approval for all sorts of eurozone rescue mechanisms ultimately played a key role in the rise of the AfD and the former's failure to enter parliament. Are they really willing to once again enter such a minefield? Merkel's desire to probably leave a lasting eurozone legacy provide the FDP with limited options to put a stop to Macron's reform projects.

As has already been mentioned, Germans don't do minority governments and the CDU/CSU will most certainly avoid any sort of cooperation with the AfD.

But who knows, perhaps we'll get another grand coalition agreement by late October.

What is the chance no government gets formed and this leads to another election?  My understanding is if no party can put together a government after trying all options, another election is held.  I suspect whichever party was blamed for holding up would pay big time and perhaps maybe the Black-Yellow coalition would get the necessary votes as people would want stability.

[DavidB.]

If Jamaika and the Wiz Khalifa option prove to be impossible, a new Groko will be formed anyway. The responsibility argument will make the SPD do it.

[Boomer sooner]

Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

Can a party running as a joke run a good or bad campaign?

How are they running as a joke?

They are a parody party by definition

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If we look at polling since the start of September...

CDU-CSU: highest poll 38%, lowest 34% - most around 36% to 37%.
SPD: highest poll 25%, lowest 20% - most around 22% to 23%.
Left: highest poll 11%, lowest 8% - most around 9% to 10%.
Greens: highest poll 9%, lowest 6% - most around 7% to 8%.
FDP: highest poll 11%, lowest 7% - most around 8% to 9%.
AfD: highest poll 12%, lowest 8% - most around 10% to 11%.

Results in 2013: CDU-CSU 42, SPD 26, Left 9, Greens 8, FDP 5, AfD 5

[Babeuf]

Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

Can a party running as a joke run a good or bad campaign?

How are they running as a joke?

They are a parody party by definition

They aren't though?

You may be confusing them with Die PARTEI.

[Beezer]

If Jamaika and the Wiz Khalifa option prove to be impossible, a new Groko will be formed anyway. The responsibility argument will make the SPD do it.

Yeah, fresh elections would probably only help the AfD and since most parties these days appear to primarily be concerned with keeping the party at bay, Schulz and friends would eventually bite the bullet.

[Beezer]

Civey and their special sauce:



A week ago:

[mileslunn]

If Jamaika and the Wiz Khalifa option prove to be impossible, a new Groko will be formed anyway. The responsibility argument will make the SPD do it.

Yeah, fresh elections would probably only help the AfD and since most parties these days appear to primarily be concerned with keeping the party at bay, Schulz and friends would eventually bite the bullet.

True although I think as long as Merkel is leader it will be tough to beat her, but most expect her not to run again in 2021 and so the thinking is the CDU/CSU will have a tough time finding someone as popular as her and this will be weaker.  Not to say the SPD will win in 2021, far from it but I think if they go into opposition they will probably perform better than if junior partner mind you if a Jamaica coalition is formed that could push the Greens below the 5% mark thus killing any chance of a Red-Green coalition in 2021 (I don't think a Red-Green coalition is likely to begin with but a lot can happen in four years).

[Former President tack50]

A minority government relying on tacit AfD support is really not happening; viewing political competition as right vs. left isn't helpful if the center-right hate the far-right more than the center-left.

Would a minority CDU/CSU+FDP cabinet work, supported by either the Greens or the SPD depending on the issue? (or maybe even AfD)

[Famous Mortimer]

Merkel would prefer a Jamaica coalition (or even a CDU/CSU-Green coalition) to a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. She would actually prefer a grand coalition to a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition, it's just that the SPD might deny her.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm going to go ahead and predict an upset, SPD, Greens, and the Left win a majority (as they did last time) and actually end up forming a government.

[jaichind]

I'm going to go ahead and predict an upset, SPD, Greens, and the Left win a majority (as they did last time) and actually end up forming a government.

You think they can do this with both FDP and AfD crossing 5% ?

[Boomer sooner]

Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

Can a party running as a joke run a good or bad campaign?

How are they running as a joke?

They are a parody party by definition

They aren't though?

You may be confusing them with Die PARTEI.

I'm a complete idiot I'm sorry.

[Maxwell]

so much for schulz-mentum, huh?

[mileslunn]

I'm going to go ahead and predict an upset, SPD, Greens, and the Left win a majority (as they did last time) and actually end up forming a government.

AfD and FDP will almost certainly cross the 5% threshold and the combined left wing support is only around 40% so unless the polls make a massive blunder not happening.  Even the 2015 British election the polls were not far that far off as what you mention above. 

[Hifly]

I'm going to go ahead and predict an upset, SPD, Greens, and the Left win a majority (as they did last time) and actually end up forming a government.

You think they can do this with both FDP and AfD crossing 5% ?

The Americans know things the rest of us don't!

[Beezer]

YouGov has the FDP at only 7%. Which would mean that a Jamaica coalition would wind up with 351 seats, a relatively slim majority of just 8. Hardly comforting given the ideological gaps on some issues.



https://yougov.de/news/2017/09/19/yougov-errechnet-mit-neuem-ansatz-die-sitzverteilu/

[Middle-aged Europe]

YouGov has the FDP at only 7%. Which would mean that a Jamaica coalition would wind up with 351 seats, a relatively slim majority of just 8. Hardly comforting given the ideological gaps on some issues.



https://yougov.de/news/2017/09/19/yougov-errechnet-mit-neuem-ansatz-die-sitzverteilu/

These ain't actual polling numbers though, but a projection based on a "Multilevel Regression und Post-Stratifikation" method, as they describe it on their website.

[TheSaint250]

What is YouGov’s track record with Germany’s Elections?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What is YouGov’s track record with Germany’s Elections?

From what I understand, INSA and YouGov collaborated back in 2013.
These are the results from their poll three days before the election:

Union: SPD: Linke: Grüne: FDP: AfD: Piraten:

41.5% 25.7% 8.6% 8.4% 4.8% 4.7% 2.2%

(+3.5%) (-2.3%) (-0.4%) (+0.4%) (-1.2%) (-0.3%) (+0.2%)

By the way, INSA/YouGov (along with Allensbach) prediction was the closest to the actual result of the AfD.

INSA/YouGov: election result: Allensbach: Emnid: Forsa: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: GMS: Infratest dimap:

5% 4.7% 4.5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2.5%

[Beezer]

Illustrates why Jamaica is a more likely option than ever before:

How do you rate Angela Merkel?



https://civey.com/umfragen/countdown_bundestagswahl_bewertung_spitzenkandidaten?utm_source=civey_twitter&utm_medium=link&utm_content=countdown_kandidaten&utm_campaign=tweet

Makes me wonder though what kind of AfD supporter actually rates Merkel positively.

[Boomer sooner]

I'm more surprised that the spd and linke have the same opinion of her.

[Vosem]

My rather audacious prediction is that the Greens will fail to make the threshold, necessitating the renewal of the Grosskoalition in spite of also fairly large CDU and SPD under-performances. FDP, AfD, Linke, and Sonstige (especially Die PARTEI) all get a banner year.

[Beezer]

Final FGW/ZDF poll has the SPD heading for an all-time low:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Year	Chancellor candidate	CSU top candidate	Union (PV)	Union (%)	CSU (PV)	CSU (% fed.)	CSU (% Bav.)	CSU share
1949	Konrad Adenauer	Hanns Seidel	7,359,084	31.0%	1,380,448	5.8%	29.2%	18.8%
1953	Konrad Adenauer	Fritz Schäffer	12,443,981	45.2%	2,427,387	8.9%	47.8%	19.5%
19571)	Konrad Adenauer	Fritz Schäffer	15,008,399	50.2%	3,133,060	10.5%	57.2%	20.9%
1961	Konrad Adenauer	Franz J. Strauß	14,298,372	45.3%	3,014,471	9.6%	54.9%	21.1%
1965	Ludwig Erhard	Franz J. Strauß	15,524,068	47.6%	3,136,506	9.6%	55.6%	20.2%
1969	Kurt G. Kiesinger	Franz J. Strauß	15,195,187	46.1%	3,115,652	9.5%	54.4%	20.5%
19722)	Rainer Barzel	Franz J. Strauß	16,806,020	44.9%	3,615,183	9.7%	55.1%	21.5%
1976	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	18,394,801	48.6%	4,027,499	10.6%	60.0%	21.9%
1980	Franz J. Strauß	Franz J. Strauß	16,897,659	44.5%	3,908,459	10.3%	57.6%	23.1%
1983	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	18,998,545	48.8%	4,140,865	10.6%	59.5%	21.8%
1987	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	16,761,572	44.3%	3,715,827	9.8%	55.1%	22.2%
19903)	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	20,358,096	43.8%	3,302,980	7.1%	51.9%	16.2%
1994	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	19,517,156	41.4%	3,427,196	7.3%	51.2%	17.6%
1998	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	17,329,388	35.1%	3,324,480	6.7%	47.7%	19.2%
2002	Edmund Stoiber	Edmund Stoiber	18,482,641	38.5%	4,315,080	9.0%	58.6%	23.3%
2005	Angela Merkel	Edmund Stoiber	16,631,049	35.2%	3,494,309	7.4%	49.2%	21.0%
2009	Angela Merkel	Peter Ramsauer	14,658,515	33.8%	2,830,238	6.5%	42.5%	19.3%
2013	Angela Merkel	Gerda Hasselfeldt	18,165,446	41.5%	3,243,569	7.4%	49.3%	17.9%

1) First election after the Saarland's reunification with West Germany. Only time the CSU also competed outside of Bavaria; the federal CSU result includes the Saarland votes.
2) The voting age had been lowered from 21 to 18, hence the marked increase in votes.
3) First election after Reunification, hence the large increase in votes.

PS: If you wanna know how great pains I took to create this chart, take a look at the source code... 😓