German Elections & Politics

[America Needs R'hllor]

There was a TV debate this Thursday where AfD lead candidate Alexander Gauland flat-out admitted that his party doesn't really have a position on pensions because the two wings in his party hold diametrically opposed views on the issue. The AfD is solely held together by their opposition to immigration, Angela Merkel, "political correctness", and the "mainstream media". If they ever had to to govern, they'd probably split into two distinct political parties very quickly... a more "libertarian" one, and a more economically populist one.

As if this matters. They are not going to govern, and everybody knows it.

It does, because this means that they lack principles and a coherent ideology. They're an unholy coalition that includes antisemites and far right populists, among more moderate voices, and the only thing binding them is xenophobia and hate against mainstream institutions.

[Helsinkian]

So, it seems that the CSU will get around 6 percent of the votes. What would they do in the future if they were in danger of falling below 5 percent nationally? Would they start running in other states, or would they be integrated with the CDU?

[Beezer]

So, it seems that the CSU will get around 6 percent of the votes. What would they do in the future if they were in danger of falling below 5 percent nationally? Would they start running in other states, or would they be integrated with the CDU?

If you win 3 constituencies you automatically receive the number of seats in parliament that reflects your share of the secondary vote. Since the CSU always sweeps Bavaria this shouldn't be much of a problem.

[Tender Branson]

So, it seems that the CSU will get around 6 percent of the votes. What would they do in the future if they were in danger of falling below 5 percent nationally? Would they start running in other states, or would they be integrated with the CDU?

The 5% hurdle for the CSU would not really apply:

The CSU would still be represented in the Bundestag via winning direct seats (and they win every single seat in Bavaria).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, it seems that the CSU will get around 6 percent of the votes. What would they do in the future if they were in danger of falling below 5 percent nationally? Would they start running in other states, or would they be integrated with the CDU?

The 5% hurdle for the CSU would not really apply:

The CSU would still be represented in the Bundestag via winning direct seats (and they win every single seat in Bavaria).

Like in math at school: Wrong way, but correct result.
The CSU is exempted from the 5% threshold as they build one unit along with the CDU and as both parties don't compete against each other in any state.
The same applied to the WASG and the PDS in 2005; the West German WASG entered the Bundestag although they didn't reach 5%.

[Yeahsayyeah]

No, the CSU is a seperate party and so the five per cent threshold would apply. But the exemtion, that you get proportionally represented if you win at least three direct seats would work in favour for them. So there is no chance in the forseeable future that the CSU is not in the Bundestag. And in the European Parliament election, there is no threshold anymore.

In 2005 WASG did not compete seperately, but WASG candidates ran on the "Linke.PDS" lists in east and west.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The same applied to the WASG and the PDS in 2005; the West German WASG entered the Bundestag although they didn't reach 5%.

Dude, the WASG wasn't even running/on the ballot in 2005. Only the PDS was and they had nominated members of the WASG on their lists and as their direct candidates.

Also, what the others said... the 5% threshold does of course apply to the CSU too.

[Yeahsayyeah]

By the way, shouldn't we have a new thread now?

[President Johnson]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

Yeah.... please do it, Seehofer.

CDU (without CSU), SPD, and Greens would also hold a majority in the new parliament. Kenya coalition.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

Yeah.... please do it, Seehofer.

CDU (without CSU), SPD, and Greens would also hold a majority in the new parliament. Kenya coalition.

ZERO chance SPD joins the government again. And that is good.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

Yeah.... please do it, Seehofer.

CDU (without CSU), SPD, and Greens would also hold a majority in the new parliament. Kenya coalition.

ZERO chance SPD joins the government again. And that is good.

Jamaica has no majority without CSU. Early elections then.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Jamaica would not have a majority without the CSU. Seehofer tries to push the price for this coalition up, but they won't split in the end. New elections could backfire badly if they really try this stunt. And the long-term ramifications would be absolutely unclear. I don't think it would desirable for the CSU to lose their status as the conservative Bavaria regionalist party.

The thing is, that pressure for SPD and Greens would be high in an Union split scenario to form some "government of stability". The irony is that CSU prefers to govern with SPD over governing with the greens, so they would like to rejoin a grand coalition, but this would not happen if they threaten to split, so this is not a wise move. The CDU leadership would have every right to say "just stay out, you left deliberately"

[President Johnson]

CSU now declined that they intend to leave the parlamentary group.

Btw: We should start a new thread

[Former President tack50]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

[Helsinkian]

So, Bernd Lucke's party (the one that split from AfD) did not participate in this election at all? I can't find them in the results?

[President Johnson]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

AfD already ruled out to join a government. Frauke Petry is open to the idea for 2021, but she's isolated in her party. She even today announced that she wouldn't join the AfD parlamentary group. If others follow, the AfD may split into two factions, as they have done for a while in the legislature of Baden-Württemberg. So, the new Bundestag hasn't even assumbled, and AfD is already fighting their own people. Will be fun to watch.

Merkel also ruled out to work with the AfD many months ago. Even the CSU declined to work with AfD. Let alone the FDP.

[Lord Halifax]

So, Bernd Lucke's party (the one that split from AfD) did not participate in this election at all? I can't find them in the results?

No they didn't.

[Lord Halifax]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

AfD already ruled out to join a government. Frauke Petry is open to the idea for 2021, but she's isolated in her party. She even today announced that she wouldn't join the AfD parlamentary group. If others follow, the AfD may split into two factions, as they have done for a while in the legislature of Baden-Württemberg. So, the new Bundestag hasn't even assumbled, and AfD is already fighting their own people. Will be fun to watch.

Merkel also ruled out to work with the AfD many months ago. Even the CSU declined to work with AfD. Let alone the FDP.

Is it a "Libertarian" right wing vs. national populists split?

[Yeahsayyeah]

The parliamentary AfD group in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag has split. 4 "moderate" MPs have left and want to form their own faction.

[Middle-aged Europe]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

AfD already ruled out to join a government. Frauke Petry is open to the idea for 2021, but she's isolated in her party. She even today announced that she wouldn't join the AfD parlamentary group. If others follow, the AfD may split into two factions, as they have done for a while in the legislature of Baden-Württemberg. So, the new Bundestag hasn't even assumbled, and AfD is already fighting their own people. Will be fun to watch.

Merkel also ruled out to work with the AfD many months ago. Even the CSU declined to work with AfD. Let alone the FDP.

I'd like to add that any CDU/CSU+AfD coalition would need to find a different Chancellor too. Opposition to (and fueling hatred against) Angela Merkel is one of the defining features of the AfD nowadays. Any AfD leader who would try to form a coalition with Merkel would probably removed from his position rather quickly. It would be roughly comparable to Donald Trump appointing Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The parliamentary AfD group in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag has split. 4 "moderate" MPs have left and want to form their own faction.

It's happening!

With the election over, there's no need to maintain the illusion of an intraparty truce any longer.

[palandio]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

CSU now declined that they intend to leave the parlamentary group.

Btw: We should start a new thread

It's like telling your wife: "I think that we should seriously discuss divorce. I personally am totally against it."

[palandio]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

AfD already ruled out to join a government. Frauke Petry is open to the idea for 2021, but she's isolated in her party. She even today announced that she wouldn't join the AfD parlamentary group. If others follow, the AfD may split into two factions, as they have done for a while in the legislature of Baden-Württemberg. So, the new Bundestag hasn't even assumbled, and AfD is already fighting their own people. Will be fun to watch.

Merkel also ruled out to work with the AfD many months ago. Even the CSU declined to work with AfD. Let alone the FDP.

Is it a "Libertarian" right wing vs. national populists split?

In some sense. But the funny thing is that "moderate" Frauke Petry supported the anti-semite understanders.

[Beezer]

Petry is neither moderate nor radical. Ultimately she's only in it for herself. When it suits her, she can support Antisemites. On other occasions she will present herself as the voice of reason.