German Elections & Politics

[Bacon King]

So what's the protocol if schwampel doesn't happen?

Minority government? New election? If AfD really is shattering up, maybe CDU/CSU/FDP could round up 29 AfD defectors to reach a majority (but even if they found the numbers for that, would they even want to?)

[Middle-aged Europe]

So what's the protocol if schwampel doesn't happen?

Minority government? New election? If AfD really is shattering up, maybe CDU/CSU/FDP could round up 29 AfD defectors to reach a majority (but even if they found the numbers for that, would they even want to?)

No, one of two things will happen: Either the SPD changes its mind and does another Grand coalition after all or there's gonna be a snap election in 2018.

[136or142]

Minority government in which Chancellor Merkel passes bills with coalitions on an issue by issue basis.

[JonHawk]

Either the Jamaica Coalition will not last the full term or both the Greens and FDP will be wiped out at the next election imo.

[America Needs R'hllor]

the FDP aren't going to be tricked into taking the effectively useless position of Foreign Office this time (I assume Ozdemir will get it): they'll probably try and grab a position like Finance (kicking Schauble aside) so they won't be cucked on their tax plans like last time ("tax cuts for everybody _{if you own a hotel}"). Maybe they'll try and get Health as well, and maybe try their luck on something to do with Asylum (you can certainly bet the Greens won't be allowed near asylum). The Greens, I presume, will go laser focused on environmental causes - the coal phase out, the diesel and petrol ban, the protection of renewable subsidies, maybe some agricultural stuff if the CDU allows it.

Interesting. Here, the Finance Minister position is considered almost a political suicide- anyone who takes it is damaged, because they always try to fix the horrible housing prices and other problems, and fail. So in Germany the position is actually helpful, politically speaking?

[Middle-aged Europe]

the FDP aren't going to be tricked into taking the effectively useless position of Foreign Office this time (I assume Ozdemir will get it): they'll probably try and grab a position like Finance (kicking Schauble aside) so they won't be cucked on their tax plans like last time ("tax cuts for everybody _{if you own a hotel}"). Maybe they'll try and get Health as well, and maybe try their luck on something to do with Asylum (you can certainly bet the Greens won't be allowed near asylum). The Greens, I presume, will go laser focused on environmental causes - the coal phase out, the diesel and petrol ban, the protection of renewable subsidies, maybe some agricultural stuff if the CDU allows it.

Interesting. Here, the Finance Minister position is considered almost a political suicide- anyone who takes it is damaged, because they always try to fix the horrible housing prices and other problems, and fail. So in Germany the position is actually helpful, politically speaking?

It's a very important and powerful position. Whether holding it hurts or helps you depends on how competent you are in it personally. Schäuble was seen as pretty competent, others not so much. So, it's more like a hit-or-miss position.

[palandio]

The reason why the FDP wants Finance so badly is that they have a kind of trauma from 2009-2013. In 2009 their campaign was mostly about a "simpler, lower and fairer" tax system. But with Schäuble (CDU) in the finance ministry the only thing they could get through were minor tax cuts for hotel chains and similar special interest groups. After the 2013 election the FDP blamed much of the electoral disaster on its failure to "deliver".

[Middle-aged Europe]

ZEIT ONLINE now mentions the possibility that exploratory talks on forming a Jamaica coalition won't actually start before the next CSU party congress on November 4-5.

Reason: CDU and CSU have a lot of disagreements with each other, especially on immigration. In light of the AfD's electoral success, the CSU wants to move to the right here, while the CDU wants to stay on course. If they move to the right it would make an agreement with the Greens harder though. Also, CSU chairman Horst Seehofer had to face a lot of of criticism from within his own party these last few days, including calls to step down. A party chaiman will be elected at the congress in early November.

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-09/gruene-fordern-unionsparteien-zu-einigkeit-auf


This may take a while folks. For the time being, we continue to have a CDU/CSU-SPD caretaker government whose term could very well be extended into 2018.

[Tender Branson]

I think there needs to be some kind of compromise for CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens to happen, such as granting the CSU to impose a low annual immigrant/asylum Obergrenze (= upper limit) for Bavaria in the coalition contract, which they can enforce. Or some other goodies to bring them onboard, such as limiting the big Bavarian payments to the poorer East etc.

[Former President tack50]

I think there needs to be some kind of compromise for CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens to happen, such as granting the CSU to impose a low annual immigrant/asylum Obergrenze (= upper limit) for Bavaria in the coalition contract, which they can enforce. Or some other goodies to bring them onboard, such as limiting the big Bavarian payments to the poorer East etc.

I guess Germany could just make refugee limits a states issue? How big would the coalition be in "states rights"? That way the Greens can push for no limits in the states they control while the CSU does the same in Bavaria. And everyone else gets to say if they want them or not.

[Diouf]

I think there needs to be some kind of compromise for CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens to happen, such as granting the CSU to impose a low annual immigrant/asylum Obergrenze (= upper limit) for Bavaria in the coalition contract, which they can enforce. Or some other goodies to bring them onboard, such as limiting the big Bavarian payments to the poorer East etc.

I guess Germany could just make refugee limits a states issue? How big would the coalition be in "states rights"? That way the Greens can push for no limits in the states they control while the CSU does the same in Bavaria. And everyone else gets to say if they want them or not.

All this talk of upper limits for asylum seekers, which is strangely popular in Germany and Austria in particular, makes very little sense. The policy can only work if you put the limit so high that it certainly will not be met. And then what's the point? With the current rules, it is not any more legal to reject asylum seeker no. 1 000 001 than it is to reject asylum seeker no. 1. For most Western European countries, this is due to them sadly following the Refugee Conventions, but in Germany it is even enshrined in the Constitution. So unless the Constitution is changed and the validity of the conventions suspended in Germany, there is no sense in setting any limits which would be illegal to actually enforce. I can ofc see the political short-term gain in talking about this as a way to seem tough on migration, but this will be a very small victory compared to the backlash once you then cannot enforce this limit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first post-election poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen is out. (In brackets the changes to the final pre-election poll from the same pollster.)

CDU/CSU 32% (-4)
SPD 21% (-0.5)
AfD 12% (+1)
Greens 11% (+3)
FDP 10% (+-0)
Left 10% (+1.5)

[Kingpoleon]

Either the Jamaica Coalition will not last the full term or both the Greens and FDP will be wiped out at the next election imo.

What if the two purposefully pull their support after convincing Merkel to hold a vote on some omnibus bill for the environment and social issues, in which the two win out in the vote?

[RodPresident]

SPD will be a viable electoral option only accepting to cooperate with The Left in federal politics.

[Former President tack50]

SPD will be a viable electoral option only accepting to cooperate with The Left in federal politics.

I agree. The only way in the future for an SPD chancellor will be SPD-Greens-Linke or SPD-Linke if the greens fall below 5%

Traffic light won't work after Jamaica sends both FDP and Greens just barely above the 5% threshold and SPD-FDP won't get a majority and even if it does that will just make SPD the 3rd largest party on the next election

[DavidB.]

I agree. The only way in the future for an SPD chancellor will be SPD-Greens-Linke or SPD-Linke if the greens fall below 5%

Because every election will be like 2017

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Frauke Petry has finally found another member of parliament, Mario Mieruch, to join her independent status.

[IceAgeComing]

how many Members would they need in order to form their own parliamentary group, rather than sitting as independents?

[Middle-aged Europe]

how many Members would they need in order to form their own parliamentary group, rather than sitting as independents?

For an actual "faction" (Fraktion) you'd need 5% of all MPs... which currently means 35. However, you're allowed to form a "group" (Gruppe) with fewer MPs than that. A group is sort of a slimmed down version of a faction with fewer parliamentary rights.

The PDS existed as a group instead of faction between 1990 and 1998 (with at first 17, and then 30 MPs), and the Greens did so as well between 1990 and 1994 (with only 8 MPs).

Between 2002 and 2005, the PDS had only two MPs and in that instance they were denied the recognition as a group. This decision was based on a earlier ruling of the Constitutional Court that you're entitled to the status of a group if you have a sufficient number of MPs to also be entitled to seats on Bundestag comittees (which are allocated proportionally among all parties represented in parliament). In practice, this meant ca. 8 MPs to form a group, give or take.

[TheSaint250]

I still find it ironic that the party Perry helped move to the right is too extreme (I agree that it has moved even further right, but it’s still funny.

[TheSaint250]

I'm hardly the expert on internal politics of German parties, and most of what I know about the AfD's internal divisions is from various Jacobin articles (normal DSA member), but I have to say that the AfD's shift to the right under Weidel is a strange development; I was under the impression that Petry was more of a "Volkisch" AfDer while Weidel, given her sexuality and background at Goldman Sachs, was just a fairly standard conservative who opposes the EU.

From what I’ve seen, she seems to be more conservative than expected. In addition, it seems like Gauland is having a greater influence on the party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Internal strife within the AfD is not as much about ideology as it is about personal power and personal animosities.

[Beezer]

Lower Saxony:



August 10:

CDU: 40 %   
SPD: 32 %   
Greens: 9 %   
FDP: 7 %   
Left: 3 %   
AfD: 6 %

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Lower Saxony:



August 10:

CDU: 40 %   
SPD: 32 %   
Greens: 9 %   
FDP: 7 %   
Left: 3 %   
AfD: 6 %

I wonder how the two elections would have influenced each other if they had taken place on the same day.

The Bundestag election results for this state are as follows:

CDU: 34.9%
SPD: 27.5%
FDP: 9.3%
AfD: 9.1%
Grüne: 8.7%
Linke: 6.9%
[PARTEI: 0.9%]

Fun fact: The 2013 Lower Saxony election was the last Landtag election to have taken place before the foundation of the AfD.

[Beezer]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen with a stronger FDP: