German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

ZDF overestimating the Greens and FDP and underestimating the AfD again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

ZDF overestimating the Greens and FDP and underestimating the AfD again.

What do you mean exactly?

ZDF had the Greens at 8% and the FDP at 10% in their final national poll before the Bundestag election. Their respective election results were 8.9% and 10.7%.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

ZDF overestimating the Greens and FDP and underestimating the AfD again.

What do you mean exactly?

ZDF had the Greens at 8% and the FDP at 10% in their final national poll before the Bundestag election. Their respective election results were 8.9% and 10.7%.

I referred to the ARD poll.

[Middle-aged Europe]

ZDF overestimating the Greens and FDP and underestimating the AfD again.

What do you mean exactly?

ZDF had the Greens at 8% and the FDP at 10% in their final national poll before the Bundestag election. Their respective election results were 8.9% and 10.7%.

I referred to the ARD poll.

The final ARD poll prior to the election had the Greens at 7.5% and the FDP at 9.5%.

[Beezer]

CSU appears to be softening on the refugee cap, with some stating it was never intended for people whose asylum applications are actually approved. Of course none of this makes any sense, seeing as this kind of cap would only work if you actually stopped an influx at the border in order to not overwhelm the country. But you can't do a thorough check at the border so what's the point in having a cap then?

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/streit-ueber-fluechtlingspolitik-es-ging-nie-um-eine-obergrenze-fuer-die-tatsaechlich-asylberechtigten-15235196.html

Well, anyway...this could make next year's Bavarian state elections rather interesting.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

[TheSaint250]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

How is it unconstitutional? (Not familiar with the German Constitution)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

How is it unconstitutional? (Not familiar with the German Constitution)

Because article 16a GG says that persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum. No mention of a limit on how many refugees would be allowed to enter Germany. However, this article could be changed, which is however quite unlikely to happen.

[TheSaint250]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

How is it unconstitutional? (Not familiar with the German Constitution)

Because article 16a GG says that persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum. No mention of a limit on how many refugees would be allowed to enter Germany. However, this article could be changed, which is however quite unlikely to happen.

Ah ok thanks

[DavidB.]

CSU appears to be softening on the refugee cap, with some stating it was never intended for people whose asylum applications are actually approved. Of course none of this makes any sense, seeing as this kind of cap would only work if you actually stopped an influx at the border in order to not overwhelm the country. But you can't do a thorough check at the border so what's the point in having a cap then?

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/streit-ueber-fluechtlingspolitik-es-ging-nie-um-eine-obergrenze-fuer-die-tatsaechlich-asylberechtigten-15235196.html

Well, anyway...this could make next year's Bavarian state elections rather interesting.

Hahahaha, they will get destroyed in the state election if they take place in the coalition as "thank you master" for Merkel again, without Obergrenze. Just what they deserve.

[mvd10]

Obergrenze is just a symbolical measure and they still could get a good deal, but people will see it as a defeat anyway (wtf do they even expect?). Maybe Merkel and her CDU/CSU cronies are BDSM fans after all.

[President Johnson]

I see the Obergrenze thing like Christian Lindner: Let the CSU introduce legislation and see what happens or how it looks like. If it's unconstitutional, put into the garbage.

[parochial boy]

CSU appears to be softening on the refugee cap, with some stating it was never intended for people whose asylum applications are actually approved. Of course none of this makes any sense, seeing as this kind of cap would only work if you actually stopped an influx at the border in order to not overwhelm the country. But you can't do a thorough check at the border so what's the point in having a cap then?

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/streit-ueber-fluechtlingspolitik-es-ging-nie-um-eine-obergrenze-fuer-die-tatsaechlich-asylberechtigten-15235196.html

Well, anyway...this could make next year's Bavarian state elections rather interesting.

Hahahaha, they will get destroyed in the state election if they take place in the coalition as "thank you master" for Merkel again, without Obergrenze. Just what they deserve.

I don't think it's possible for the CSU to get destroyed in an election. Bavaria...

[mvd10]

CSU appears to be softening on the refugee cap, with some stating it was never intended for people whose asylum applications are actually approved. Of course none of this makes any sense, seeing as this kind of cap would only work if you actually stopped an influx at the border in order to not overwhelm the country. But you can't do a thorough check at the border so what's the point in having a cap then?

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/streit-ueber-fluechtlingspolitik-es-ging-nie-um-eine-obergrenze-fuer-die-tatsaechlich-asylberechtigten-15235196.html

Well, anyway...this could make next year's Bavarian state elections rather interesting.

Hahahaha, they will get destroyed in the state election if they take place in the coalition as "thank you master" for Merkel again, without Obergrenze. Just what they deserve.

I don't think it's possible for the CSU to get destroyed in an election. Bavaria...

Less than 40% probably counts as being destroyed for the CSU (and they already only scored 38% in the federal elections...).

[Bumaye]

First time ever that Die Linke is strongest party in a Berlin state election poll. Mainly because Berlin is an electoral clusterf**k.  
  
Die Linke: 19%  
CDU: 19%  
SPD: 18%  
Grüne: 15%  
AfD: 11%  
FDP: 9%  
Others: 9%  
  
The ruling R2G coalition stands basically unchanged at 52%, same as in the election a year ago only that SPD lost 3,5% and Linke gained 3,5%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The next election isn't for another four years anyway.

[Bumaye]

Could Die Linke conceivably lead a coalition in Berlin should they come in first in the next election?

 
  
Or to frame that question differently: Could a singing gay socialist jurist become mayor of Berlin? Now that should answer your question already. Of course he could, it's freaking Berlin.  
  
No but seriously Die Linke in Berlin is among the most pragmatic and moderate among the different state groups of the party and was in the government several times. It's definitely possible that they could lead another R2G like in Thuringia. And furthermore what are the other options if things would stay that way? GroKo+FDP? If the SPD does that they would land behind both Linke and Grüne in the election after that.

[Beezer]

Leftist surge in Lower Saxony!



SPD +1.5!

[DL]

What sort of government would emerge in Lower Saxony if those are the results? I see four possibilities:

1. Grand coalition with the SPD leader as Premier
2. CDU forms a Jamaica coalition
3. SPD forms a traffic light coalition
4. SPD forms a red-red-green coalition

[Hnv1]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

How is it unconstitutional? (Not familiar with the German Constitution)

Because article 16a GG says that persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum. No mention of a limit on how many refugees would be allowed to enter Germany. However, this article could be changed, which is however quite unlikely to happen.

it's a matter of interpretation whether you can read a residual power for the legislature to set some upper limit (I think it does as it is clear through reasonable purposeful interpretation that no such duty would have emerged if 50 million people came). But then I think any cap the CSU will want will be too low.

[Beezer]

Again, none of this would even matter if what was written in the constitution was properly applied to asylum seekers:

1) Persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum.

(2) Paragraph (1) of this Article may not be invoked by a person who enters the federal territory from a member state of the European Communities or from another third state in which application of the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms is assured.

[Tender Branson]

Again, none of this would even matter if what was written in the constitution was properly applied to asylum seekers:

1) Persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum.

(2) Paragraph (1) of this Article may not be invoked by a person who enters the federal territory from a member state of the European Communities or from another third state in which application of the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms is assured.

Correct.

These economic migrants (and most of them who came are) cannot pick and choose the country they wanna go to, just because they think milk and honey are provided to them ...

Asylum seekers have the right to request asylum in the neighboring countries, but certainly not move through 10 safe countries before their destiny of choice.

This needs to be stopped and the only way is to send a signal by cutting down the welfare payments to illegal economic migrants to zero - to scare them off. Only then will the message spread to Africa and the Middle East, where the impoverished masses are waiting to hop over to Europe. And the smuggler's work will be destroyed too.

[parochial boy]

Again, none of this would even matter if what was written in the constitution was properly applied to asylum seekers:

1) Persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum.

(2) Paragraph (1) of this Article may not be invoked by a person who enters the federal territory from a member state of the European Communities or from another third state in which application of the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms is assured.

Correct.

These economic migrants (and most of them who came are) cannot pick and choose the country they wanna go to, just because they think milk and honey are provided to them ...

Asylum seekers have the right to request asylum in the neighboring countries, but certainly not move through 10 safe countries before their destiny of choice.

This needs to be stopped and the only way is to send a signal by cutting down the welfare payments to illegal economic migrants to zero - to scare them off. Only then will the message spread to Africa and the Middle East, where the impoverished masses are waiting to hop over to Europe. And the smuggler's work will be destroyed too.

If I was an Eritrean wanting to move to Europe, I don't think the existence or not of welfare payments would really factor into my decision. The real solution is to do something about Libya, so that it becomes less of a sfe haven for every type of criminal, smuggler and gangster

[Zinneke]

Again, none of this would even matter if what was written in the constitution was properly applied to asylum seekers:

1) Persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum.

(2) Paragraph (1) of this Article may not be invoked by a person who enters the federal territory from a member state of the European Communities or from another third state in which application of the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms is assured.

Correct.

These economic migrants (and most of them who came are) cannot pick and choose the country they wanna go to, just because they think milk and honey are provided to them ...

Asylum seekers have the right to request asylum in the neighboring countries, but certainly not move through 10 safe countries before their destiny of choice.

This needs to be stopped and the only way is to send a signal by cutting down the welfare payments to illegal economic migrants to zero - to scare them off. Only then will the message spread to Africa and the Middle East, where the impoverished masses are waiting to hop over to Europe. And the smuggler's work will be destroyed too.

If I was an Eritrean wanting to move to Europe, I don't think the existence or not of welfare payments would really factor into my decision. The real solution is to do something about Libya, so that it becomes less of a sfe haven for every type of criminal, smuggler and gangster

I think the Germans never gave approval to the Libyan regime change in 2011 so they don't see it as their burden, and rightly so. I don't think even the Germans in Brussels (who are usually the most pro-"European Neighbourhood" people that actually believe in a German Foreign Policy) want to get involved. They're fine funding an EU Border Assistance Program led by the Italians. For any EU mission to stabilise Libya internally to happen there needs to be an actual recognised regime who invites EU intervention, because the UN sure as hell won't approve Western intervention in Libya. 

If I were German I would mainly look at France and the UK and say "take responsibility". Merkel was naive to think an EU-plan for refugees could come about, not to adopt a pro-refugee stance.