German Elections & Politics

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What sort of government would emerge in Lower Saxony if those are the results? I see four possibilities:

1. Grand coalition with the SPD leader as Premier
2. CDU forms a Jamaica coalition
3. SPD forms a traffic light coalition
4. SPD forms a red-red-green coalition

Definitely a traffic-light coalition.

[parochial boy]

If I were German I would mainly look at France and the UK and say "take responsibility". Merkel was naive to think an EU-plan for refugees could come about, not to adopt a pro-refugee stance.

That would be optimistic to say the least...

I agree with you ré-responsibility ofc, but I think that, no matrix who takes it, acting as if the problem starts and ends at the Mediterranean is never going to solve anything; from a humanitarian perspective regarding the exploitation and enslavement of the migrants in Libya as well as from the perspective of reducing migration to Europe

[Hnv1]

When can we expect results for Lower Saxony?

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

[Hnv1]

So traffic light?

[Sozialliberal]

So traffic light?

It currently looks like it's going to be either a traffic-light coalition (SPD + Greens + FDP) or a Jamaica coalition (CDU + Greens + FDP). However, the final results can still be a little different: For example, Red-Green (SPD + Greens) could still receive a narrow majority of seats or Die Linke could enter the state parliament, but that's rather unlikely.

[DL]

What about a Grand Coalition with the SPD supplier the premier?

I suppose that mathematically you could get a "Jamaica coalition" but given how the election is seen as a such a big rebuke to the CDU/FDP and Greens in the wake of a likely Jamaica coalition federally, i wonder if that combo would be seen as a bit of a "coalition of losers" 

[Sozialliberal]

According to the latest projection, the SPD and the Greens (the incumbent government) have a narrow majority now!

What about a Grand Coalition with the SPD supplier the premier?

I suppose that mathematically you could get a "Jamaica coalition" but given how the election is seen as a such a big rebuke to the CDU/FDP and Greens in the wake of a likely Jamaica coalition federally, i wonder if that combo would be seen as a bit of a "coalition of losers" 

A grand coalition is possible, but it would be the least popular option. It has already been said that a Jamaica coalition would be a "coalition of losers". However, the most important part about forming a government coalition is that the respective parties can work well with one another. The FDP top candidate Stefan Birkner has already ruled out a traffic-light coalition. He said: "We don't see a possibility to implement our policies in a traffic-light coalition. We Free Democrats won't take part in a traffic-light coalition." If the FDP formed a traffic-light coalition now, it would make Birkner look like a flip-flopper.

[Beezer]

What a great day for Jamaica.

[jeron]

What about a Grand Coalition with the SPD supplier the premier?

I suppose that mathematically you could get a "Jamaica coalition" but given how the election is seen as a such a big rebuke to the CDU/FDP and Greens in the wake of a likely Jamaica coalition federally, i wonder if that combo would be seen as a bit of a "coalition of losers" 

Red/Green could still be possible at the end of the night. At this point it's 67 seats for red/green and 68 for the others.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

For a very short time there was a narrow red-green majority. Now they've only got 67 seats again.
A very exciting election!

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/koalitionsrechner.shtml?e=2017-10-15-LT-DE-NI&q=sitze_krechner

[Kamala]

Would a traffic light be possible?

Shame Linke didn't get in. Red-red-green would've been decent.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Would a traffic light be possible?

Shame Linke didn't get in. Red-red-green would've been decent.

No. Stefan Birkner, the FDP top candidate, refuses steadfastly to join a traffic light coalition. He didn't leave any option open.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

https://www.aktuelle-wahlen-niedersachsen.de/LW2017/Vision/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[mileslunn]

It looks like the Red-Green fell just shy of a majority.  Interestingly enough unlike recent German elections it looks like more people voted for parties on the left than right.  I also noticed using constituencies only SPD got a majority so has anyone in Germany ever raised the idea of switching to first past the post or Alternative vote (AV or known as ranked ballots) as both produce majorities and stabilities or is it most European countries so entrenched the idea whatever percentage of votes a party gets they should get that many seats and the idea of deviating from them just doesn't fly with voters even if less stability.

[DL]

So what government will be formed? If the FDP absolutely refuses to join and "traffic light" coalition and the Greens absolutely refuse to join a "Jamaica" coalition and no one wants a "grand coalition" - what happens?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So what government will be formed? If the FDP absolutely refuses to join and "traffic light" coalition and the Greens absolutely refuse to join a "Jamaica" coalition and no one wants a "grand coalition" - what happens?

Maybe a Bahamas coalition.
It is going to happen someday.

But seriously, a grand coalition will be the deal.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I'm intrigued by the fact that both the bible belt in Western Lower Saxony and the social democratic stripe in the northwest extend beyond the Dutch-German border.

[Sozialliberal]

So what government will be formed? If the FDP absolutely refuses to join and "traffic light" coalition and the Greens absolutely refuse to join a "Jamaica" coalition and no one wants a "grand coalition" - what happens?

The SPD would prefer a traffic-light coalition to a grand coalition. The SPD state party's general secretary Detlef Tanke said they at least want to talk to the FDP to find out if they can find common ground for a coalition despite the FDP's scepticism. If that fails, it will probably be a grand coalition.

Another option that has been mentioned in the media is an SPD + Greens minority government. While a minority government has never been tried out at federal level in Germany, there were several at state level, e.g. North Rhine-Westphalia 2010–2012, Saxony-Anhalt 1994–2002 or Lower Saxony 1976–1977.

It looks like the Red-Green fell just shy of a majority.  Interestingly enough unlike recent German elections it looks like more people voted for parties on the left than right.  I also noticed using constituencies only SPD got a majority so has anyone in Germany ever raised the idea of switching to first past the post or Alternative vote (AV or known as ranked ballots) as both produce majorities and stabilities or is it most European countries so entrenched the idea whatever percentage of votes a party gets they should get that many seats and the idea of deviating from them just doesn't fly with voters even if less stability.

CDU/CSU actually wanted to introduce an FPTP voting system when they were in a grand-coalition government in the late 1960s. The FDP, which was the only opposition party in the Bundestag at the time, strongly objected to that idea because it would have lost most of its political influence. The SPD was initially supportive of FPTP, but they abandoned the plan when the FDP offered to be their coalition partner.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Germans should really lower their electoral threshold. As I understand it, the main reason it's at 5 percent was to try and stop the far right entering parliament; a motivation that has been rendered irrelevant by events. Now due to the proliferation of smallish parties who could potentially fall out of legislatures (especially at a state level) you're going to see more and more wasted votes (And it's not like this would just help the left: it would prevent FDP from suffering the oblivion it did when it was allied with Merkel, and it would allow AfD to last any teething problems)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Germans should really lower their electoral threshold. As I understand it, the main reason it's at 5 percent was to try and stop the far right entering parliament; a motivation that has been rendered irrelevant by events. Now due to the proliferation of smallish parties who could potentially fall out of legislatures (especially at a state level) you're going to see more and more wasted votes (And it's not like this would just help the left: it would prevent FDP from suffering the oblivion it did when it was allied with Merkel, and it would allow AfD to last any teething problems)

The threshold was established to prevent too many parties in general (not only the far-right) entering the Bundestag. After the last democratic Reichstag election, 14 different parties were represented in the parliament.
Btw, did you know that in the first Bundestag election the 5% threshold didn't apply to the whole of the federal territory, but only to the single states? That's why we had 11 parties (+ 3 independents) in the first Bundestag.

[Bumaye]

Shame Linke didn't get in. Red-red-green would've been decent.

 
 
Hell no, even half of Die Linke members I know are happy that they failed. Die Linke in Lower Saxony is like a personal cult around Dietmar Dehm who is the living embodiment of the horseshoe theory. Kick that filth out and Die Linke will stand at 7%+ next time around.

[Bumaye]

The threshold was established to prevent too many parties in general (not only the far-right) entering the Bundestag. After the last democratic Reichstag election, 14 different parties were represented in the parliament.

 
 
Which is and always has been a cheep excuse. Weimar didn't failed because there was no threshold but because a majority of the electorate voted for parties who actively were against Weimar as a whole (NSDAP & KPD).