German Elections & Politics
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:14:11 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 121 122 123 124 125 [126] 127 128 129 130 131 ... 176
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655371 times)
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3125 on: November 20, 2017, 12:35:48 PM »


Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections. However, what exactly is Merkel's goal here? Reduce the AfD vote to boost her numbers for a future coalition of CDU/CSU +FDP or Greens? Hope the voters punish one of FDP/Greens, and hope the numbers allow for a coalition woth the suvivor? Simply have a rehash of results that comfirms to the Jamaica partners that they are the only option?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3126 on: November 20, 2017, 12:39:25 PM »

I somehow pity the German voters ...

At least we had a clear vote here and a clear mandate for the coming government, whether you like them ideologically or not.

It's going to be really though going forward into new elections, especially with the SPD remaining in hardcore opposition mode.
Logged
mgop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 811
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3127 on: November 20, 2017, 12:46:20 PM »

so germans calling new election after 1 month of negotiation, meanwhile in netherlands...
Logged
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,709


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3128 on: November 20, 2017, 12:49:57 PM »

Is Merkel's position really in danger? I don't see anyone who could replace her (my boy Jens SPAHN probably isn't experienced enough Sad) and I also don't see the SPD winning enough votes to form a coalition themselves. I suppose the SPD could enter a new Grand Coalition if Merkel leaves, but wouldn't any new CDU/CSU leader basically be to the right of Merkel? And ruling out something only to switch at the very last moment in exchange for some minor concession doesn't look like a great idea for a party at it's nadir.

Anyway, who could replace Merkel? I've read the names of Jens Spahn, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Wolfgang Schauble (I guess he would only be a temporary replacement), Daniel Günther, Peter Altmaier (lol) and Ursula von der Leyen.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3129 on: November 20, 2017, 12:50:29 PM »


Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections. However, what exactly is Merkel's goal here? Reduce the AfD vote to boost her numbers for a future coalition of CDU/CSU +FDP or Greens? Hope the voters punish one of FDP/Greens, and hope the numbers allow for a coalition woth the suvivor? Simply have a rehash of results that comfirms to the Jamaica partners that they are the only option?
Maybe she's hoping that this is all deja vu. Remember the Spanish election crisis 2015/16? Rajoy's PP was able to win some votes from C's and was the only party to win seats. Maybe she's hoping that some AfD voters will come home to CDU/CSU, adding to this a lower turnout that could depress vote share for FDP and Greens.
Logged
Helsinkian
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,824
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3130 on: November 20, 2017, 12:50:57 PM »

I suppose Frauke Petry would be the single biggest loser from a new election; doubtful she can renew her direct mandate now that she's left the AfD.
Logged
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,709


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3131 on: November 20, 2017, 12:51:49 PM »

so germans calling new election after 1 month of negotiation, meanwhile in netherlands...

Our politicians had the great idea to make the formation last long to give us the impression that they were doing everything to defend their values. It was a public secret, but it worked lol. And the Netherlands is used to long formations since we have a more fragmented political landscape.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3132 on: November 20, 2017, 12:59:59 PM »

Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections.

No, she can't actually call them. Right now this is just her expressing a public preference.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3133 on: November 20, 2017, 01:04:58 PM »

Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections.

No, she can't actually call them. Right now this is just her expressing a public preference.

yeah, but with Merkel and Schultz putting the CDU/CSU and SPD towards new elections, it practically makes it inevitable. There will be the three ballots, and then the President will call for new elections after Merkel becomes a temporary minority custodian.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3134 on: November 20, 2017, 01:06:58 PM »

Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections.

No, she can't actually call them. Right now this is just her expressing a public preference.

yeah, but with Merkel and Schultz putting the CDU/CSU and SPD towards new elections, it practically makes it inevitable.

No it doesn't. Just means that it's possible. This is one of those constitutional test case situations in which all manner of things could happen.
Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3135 on: November 20, 2017, 03:26:33 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2017, 02:49:29 PM by Sozialliberal »

I think the CDU should oust Merkel. It's obvious that her handling of the refugge/immigration crisis alienated many former CDU/CSU voters. If she were the CDU top candidate in a new election, the results would probably be not much different. Without Merkel, CDU/CSU would have a good chance to win back enough former voters from the AfD to form a black-yellow (CDU/CSU + FDP) majority government. From the CDU's perspective, I think Jens Spahn could be a succesful top candidate in a new election. Other people that have been named as potential Merkel successors are Carsten Linnemann (chairman of the pro-business sub-organization MIT, which is traditionally the most influential sub-organization within CDU/CSU) and Wolfgang Schäuble (if you want someone with a lot of political experience).

Seehofer's position in the CSU is very shaky. Potential successors are Markus Söder and Ilse Aigner.


Is Merkel's position really in danger? I don't see anyone who could replace her (my boy Jens SPAHN probably isn't experienced enough Sad) and I also don't see the SPD winning enough votes to form a coalition themselves.

If someone like Trump can be President of the United States, Spahn is almost overqualified to be Chancellor of Germany. Wink


The FDP are such wussies. If it comes to snap elections I really hope they get kicked out off the Bundestag again. 👿

Like any other party, the FDP are free to decide if they want to enter government or not. This is not the National Front of the DDR. Wink



That would be by far the most foolish thing the SPD could do right now. The continuation of the grand coalition would hurt our democracy. If that's what the voters wanted, all three parties involved wouldn't have lost votes massively. With a perpetual grand coalition and a growing right-wing populist party as the largest opposition force, Germany would turn into Austria politically.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,585
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3136 on: November 20, 2017, 03:35:28 PM »

I know, I argued different just a few days but I think Merkel should lead a CDU minority government for one or two years and then call for new elections. CDU and SPD should renew themselfes until that date. A new election right now wouldn't change much and grand coalition is toxic for democracy.

I wrote a detailed opinion for SPD Youth's magazine that will apear tomorrow about that and post the link then Wink
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3137 on: November 20, 2017, 05:00:01 PM »

I do not see how another election now would change anything.  CDU/CSU+FDP will still not have a majority.  CDU/CSU will still be greater than SPD.   All things equal I suspect the smaller parties will lose votes to the larger parties (CDU/CSU, SPD) but other than that things will be the same and we will be back to where we started.
Logged
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3138 on: November 20, 2017, 07:40:15 PM »

infratest dimap survey





The failure of "Jamaica" exploratory negotiations is opposed by 57% and supported by 31% of the respondents.





Who has to take responsibility for the failure of the "Jamaica" exploratory negotiations?





Favorability ratings:





What should come next?

Minority government: 29%
Snap elections: 63%





What should the SPD do?

Persist in their viewpoint: 50%
Form a coalition with the CDU/CSU: 44%





Opinion of a possible renewed chancellorship of Merkel?

Very good / good: 58%
Not so good / bad: 41%

Logged
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3139 on: November 20, 2017, 09:52:35 PM »

Interesting to see the divergence between single choice and multiple choice regarding who has to take responsibility for the failure of the "Jamaica" exploratory negotiations.

infratest dimap (ARD DeutschlandTrend): single choiceForschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF Politbarometer): mulitple choice



ZDF also includes the possibility of a grand coalition in "What to do next?", combined with a multiple choice form:

infratest dimap (ARD DeutschlandTrend): single choiceForschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF Politbarometer): mulitple choice



Who do you think would profit the most from snap elections?





Who do you think would snap elections do the most damage to?


Logged
republicanbayer
Rookie
**
Posts: 86
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3140 on: November 21, 2017, 04:30:51 AM »

Nobody in the CDU appears to have the balls or brains to see that the party needs a fresh face. Merkel is spent. Why should voters opt for her in a new election? People know what she stands for and her program was soundly rejected the last time around (let's not forget that this was the CDU's second worst result ever). Is no one in that party able to cobble together an alliance that sees Merkel out the door? Jesus F'ing Christ, just get Spahn in there so he can pull a Kurz and you've got yourself a homo/metrosexual coalition (Spahn/Lindner) that will easily get a majority in the Bundestag.

Most voters don't know Spahn and while I like him personally, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't be a good choice right now. Merkel is still popular. Some friends and family who voted FDP this time will go back to her in the snap elections. All people I know are upset about the failed talks and they blame Lindner for that. I think a large part of the voters just wants a government that leaves them alone for the next four years. And that's exactly what Merkel offers.

Furthermore she has agreed on restricting the number of asylum seekers to 200,000. At least that's what everyone thinks. CDU/CSU have stopped their fights and will probably get 36-39% in snap elections, which might be enough for a coalition with the Greens or FDP.
Logged
Hnv1
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,505


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3141 on: November 21, 2017, 05:38:43 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2017, 05:42:57 AM by Hnv1 »

maybe it's time to activate article 48 of the Weimar constitution and have a presidential government
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3142 on: November 22, 2017, 06:24:11 AM »

If SPD does join the government it should demand that FDP and Greens also join in this "government of national salvation."  This way next election it would not just be SPD losing votes but FDP and Greens as well.  Since there are caps to AfD and LinkedIn support the total SPD loss can then be minimized.
Logged
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3143 on: November 22, 2017, 08:18:41 AM »

If SPD does join the government it should demand that FDP and Greens also join in this "government of national salvation."  This way next election it would not just be SPD losing votes but FDP and Greens as well.  Since there are caps to AfD and LinkedIn support the total SPD loss can then be minimized.

The business website is growing every day Tongue

But seriously, that would be a good idea for he SPD, but I doubt the FDP and the Greens won’t see through the offer
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3144 on: November 22, 2017, 01:13:31 PM »

maybe it's time to activate article 48 of the Weimar constitution and have a presidential government

Von Schleicher and Von Papen always knew what to do in these sorts of situations
Logged
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3145 on: November 23, 2017, 01:58:57 AM »

Helmut Kohl was chancellor for 5,870 days or 16 years and 26 days, respectively.
If Angela Merkel wants to break that record, she'll need to remain chancellor until December 19, 2021.
Hence, new elections would come in handy for her...

By the way, yesterday was Merkel's twelve-year jubilee in the Federal Chancellery. 🎉
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3146 on: November 23, 2017, 07:34:55 AM »

Söder to become Bavarian state premier while Seehofer will stay on as CSU leader.

http://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-3189.html
Logged
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3147 on: November 23, 2017, 08:16:52 AM »

Söder to become Bavarian state premier while Seehofer will stay on as CSU leader.

http://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-3189.html

That's not an official decision.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3148 on: November 23, 2017, 10:18:56 AM »

SPD now willing to talk to Merkel on Grand Alliance. 
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3149 on: November 23, 2017, 10:42:43 AM »

The latest polls in Germany indicate that both the CDU and SPD are shedding even more support to the point where after a new election they might not even have enough seats between them for a grand coalition...what would happen then and what is the nickname for a CDU/SPD/Green coalition?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 121 122 123 124 125 [126] 127 128 129 130 131 ... 176  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.112 seconds with 12 queries.