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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 338334 times)
Sozialliberal
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« Reply #3175 on: November 23, 2017, 03:11:44 pm »
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The SPD said they would support a CDU/CSU minority government with Merkel as chancellor. I think that's an interesting option. It would be hard for Merkel, though. Remember that some laws have to be approved not only by the majority of the Bundestag, but also by the majority of the Bundesrat. Chancellor Merkel prefers a new election, but President Steinmeier, who is against a new election, is most probably trying to talk her out of that.


I'm sure the CSU would prefer a coalition with the AfD!

Seriously though, hasnt trhere been talk of the CDU forming a coalition with the SPD and Greens that would EXCLUDE the CSU?

A split between the CDU and the CSU is unlikely. There's a consensus between the two parties that they don't compete against each other. The CSU is basically the CDU's lapdog: He may bark from time to time, but he won't bite the hand that feeds him. It wouldn't make sense from the CDU's perspective, either. Bavaria is a stronghold for the CDU/CSU alliance. Why would they jeopardize that?


If SPD does join the government it should demand that FDP and Greens also join in this "government of national salvation."  This way next election it would not just be SPD losing votes but FDP and Greens as well.  Since there are caps to AfD and LinkedIn support the total SPD loss can then be minimized.

There's no such thing as a limit to the share of the vote a party can receive. Who would have thought that SYRIZA could become the largest party in Greece before the financial crisis broke out? Moreover, when the negotiations between four parties failed, adding a fifth party to the negotiations will make things more complicated, not easier.
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« Reply #3176 on: November 23, 2017, 03:51:36 pm »
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SPD grandees wrote an open letter urging a "Kenya" Union/SPD/Green coalition.
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« Reply #3177 on: November 23, 2017, 08:29:11 pm »
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Sder to become Bavarian state premier while Seehofer will stay on as CSU leader.

http://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-3189.html

A CSU spokesman has denied this:

https://tinyurl.com/ybo3ftqr (Reuters)
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« Reply #3178 on: November 24, 2017, 07:34:58 am »
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Bloomberg news headline: SCHULZ: SPD COALITION W/MERKEL WOULD NEED MEMBER VOTE
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« Reply #3179 on: November 24, 2017, 08:47:48 am »
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Bloomberg news headline: SCHULZ: SPD COALITION W/MERKEL WOULD NEED MEMBER VOTE
SPD membership is probably the most docile in the west. It's going to be another grand coalition then. Shame I wanted the FDP in charge of finance
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« Reply #3180 on: November 24, 2017, 08:51:12 am »
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Shame I wanted the FDP in charge of finance
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« Reply #3181 on: November 24, 2017, 12:36:25 pm »
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I wonder how likely is it that we see in Germany an SPD implosion equivalent to the one we had here Tongue
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« Reply #3182 on: November 26, 2017, 11:41:48 pm »
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Looks like the SPD will demand single payer healthcare (among other things) if they enter another grand coalition.

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« Reply #3183 on: November 27, 2017, 12:43:43 am »
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Looks like the SPD will demand single payer healthcare (among other things) if they enter another grand coalition.

Oh? That is genuinely good news.

If the SPD really wants to die, at least it should be a noble sacrifice that wins the working class something.
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« Reply #3184 on: November 27, 2017, 02:16:13 am »
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@Dominik_Mk
SPD are ready for coalition talks with some solid points. They are not willing to give up on them. Merkel will have a hard time negotiating.

@Dominik_Mk
SPD major terms for coalition:
-More investment in Education and Housing
-Abolition of private health care insurance
-No migrant quotas
-Lowering debt of local governments
-Reformed pension system (higher pensions)

SPD is also opened to support Minority government led by Merkel

@Dominik_Mk
At a CDU leadership meeting today a group of CDU officials made it clear to Merkel that some of the SPD's demands for grand-coalition are unrealistic.

@Dominik_Mk
The Grand Coalition talks are going to be extremely hard for Merkel(CDU) when it comes to migration. The SPD and CSU have two very different viewpoints on the issue. The real challenge for Merkel will be to get SPD and CSU to work together
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« Reply #3185 on: November 27, 2017, 06:55:28 am »
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Angela Merkels party backs grand coalition

This is probably what she wanted since the beginning
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« Reply #3186 on: November 27, 2017, 07:48:24 am »
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Well, the SPD really have a deathwish apparently. Entering another Grand Coalition after getting their worst result ever and then constantly publicly denying another grand coalition will only prove their opponents claim that the two big parties are one and the same. On the other hand, some of these demands by the SPD look improbable with the CSU, so perhaps SPD really don't want another Grand Coalition, yet need the public perception of Merkel exhausting all options before new elections...
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« Reply #3187 on: November 28, 2017, 03:45:17 pm »
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Looks like the SPD will demand single payer healthcare (among other things) if they enter another grand coalition.



"Single payer healthcare" is the wrong term. The SPD want to strengthen the statutory insurers, but it would still be a multi-payer system. I summarized the most important facts on the German healthcare system below to give you a better understanding. Then I described what the SPD want to change.

General:
There are two types of health insurers in Germany: statutory insurers ("gesetzliche Krankenkassen") and private insurers ("private Krankenkassen"). Statutory health insurers are statutory corporations, whereas private health insurers are privately owned companies.

Insured people:
All employees who have a gross income of not more than 57,600 euros a year (the exact amount changes anually) are obliged to be insured by one of the statutory health insurers. That means they can't choose a private insurer to cover their basic healthcare even if they want to. All employees with a gross income of more than 57,600 euros a year and most self-employed people (with the exception of certain occupational groups for historical reasons) are free to choose either a private insurer or a statutory insurer. It's generally easy for an insured person to switch from one statutory health insurer to another statutory insurer, or from one private insurer to another private insurer. However, people who want to switch (back) from a private health insurer to a statutory insurer often experience difficulties.

Coverage:
All statutory health insurers have to cover a legally defined minimum range of services, but they are free to offer the coverage of additional health services to their customers, according to the financial situation of the individual insurer. There is no legal regulation on what services a private insurer must cover. Private insurers often cover a wider range of services than statutory insurers. It's also often easier to arrange a prompt appointment with a doctor if you have a private health insurance.

Funding:
The statutory insurers have to charge a legally defined minimum percentage of an employee's monthly gross income. A statutory insurer may, however, charge a higher percentage if the insurer deems it necessary because of the insurer's individual financial situation. The contribution regulation for self-employed members of statutory insurers is more complicated, so I'll leave that out. Private insurers are free to charge whatever they want. Broadly speaking, private insurers charge less if you're young and healthy and charge more if you're old and sick. Statutory insurers are not allowed to do that. Every member of the same statutory insurer has to pay the same percentage of their income, regardless of their medical history or their age.

Number of insurers:
Currently, there are 113 statutory health insurers and 44 private health insurers in Germany. Most statutory insurers are open to people from all of Germany, but a few accept only residents of certain states as customers. Even less are open only to employees of a specific (very large) company. Most statutory insurers are open to people from all occupational backgrounds, an exception being a statutory insurer exclusively for farmers and their immediate family.

What the SPD want to change:
The SPD want to oblige every newly insured person to be insured by a statutory health insurer, no matter how much money they earn, no matter if they're employees or self-employed. They would also make switching to a statutory insurer much easier for policyholders of private insurers. People who are already insured by private companies and want to keep their private health insurance would be free to do so. However, the cost of private insurance would rise sharply because all newly insured people, who are mostly young and healthy, can't be insured by private insurers any more. This concept is something Die Linke and the Greens support, too. CDU/CSU and the FDP oppose this change. The AfD has no clear position. The private health insurers are protesting against it because it would severely hurt their business model. Medical associations voiced criticism, too.
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« Reply #3188 on: November 30, 2017, 02:19:08 pm »
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New Bavaria poll (GMS)

CSU: 37 %
SPD: 15 %   
Greens: 10 %   
FDP: 8 %   
Linke: 3 %   
Free Voters: 7 %   
AfD: 14 %   
Others: 6 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm
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« Reply #3189 on: November 30, 2017, 05:37:06 pm »
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  Are there elements in the CSU that would support a Bavaria level coalition between it and the AFD? Maybe especially if the OVP FPO coalition in Austria is working out ok without the sky falling?
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« Reply #3190 on: November 30, 2017, 08:52:03 pm »
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New Bavaria poll (GMS)

CSU: 37 %
SPD: 15 %   
Greens: 10 %   
FDP: 8 %   
Linke: 3 %   
Free Voters: 7 %   
AfD: 14 %   
Others: 6 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm
If the SPD enters another grand coalition, I think we can expect them to fall behind AfD in Bavaria. There might be a situation developing where the left wing vote goes primarily to the Greens in the South, Linke in the East, and SPD in the Northwest/Rhineland. It really seems to have collapsed as a national party.
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« Reply #3191 on: November 30, 2017, 09:57:38 pm »
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  Are there elements in the CSU that would support a Bavaria level coalition between it and the AFD? Maybe especially if the OVP FPO coalition in Austria is working out ok without the sky falling?

the CSU is far too green to be ushered in at the moment; and it would cause chaos in both the CSU and AfD. There simply is no need.
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« Reply #3192 on: December 04, 2017, 06:35:17 am »
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Markus Sder is to become the next Bavarian minister president.
Horst Seehofer is likely to remain CSU party leader.
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« Reply #3193 on: December 07, 2017, 05:25:23 pm »
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@APHClarkson
Martin Schulz is targeting centrist, left liberal and Left wing voters the SPD is losing to the CDU, Greens and Linkspartei respectively. An appeal for a greater Europe works for all three. At this point integration-sceptics won't vote SPD anyway

SPDs Martin Schulz wants United States of Europe by 2025

https://www.politico.eu/article/spds-martin-schulz-wants-united-states-of-europe-by-2025/
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« Reply #3194 on: December 07, 2017, 07:06:50 pm »
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@APHClarkson
Martin Schulz is targeting centrist, left liberal and Left wing voters the SPD is losing to the CDU, Greens and Linkspartei respectively. An appeal for a greater Europe works for all three. At this point integration-sceptics won't vote SPD anyway

SPDs Martin Schulz wants United States of Europe by 2025

https://www.politico.eu/article/spds-martin-schulz-wants-united-states-of-europe-by-2025/

Good for the SPD to finally have something they stand for.
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« Reply #3195 on: December 09, 2017, 10:39:09 pm »
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@APHClarkson
Martin Schulz is targeting centrist, left liberal and Left wing voters the SPD is losing to the CDU, Greens and Linkspartei respectively. An appeal for a greater Europe works for all three. At this point integration-sceptics won't vote SPD anyway

SPDs Martin Schulz wants United States of Europe by 2025

https://www.politico.eu/article/spds-martin-schulz-wants-united-states-of-europe-by-2025/

Good for the SPD to finally have something they stand for.
Are they trying to kill themselves
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« Reply #3196 on: December 09, 2017, 10:53:09 pm »
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@APHClarkson
Martin Schulz is targeting centrist, left liberal and Left wing voters the SPD is losing to the CDU, Greens and Linkspartei respectively. An appeal for a greater Europe works for all three. At this point integration-sceptics won't vote SPD anyway

SPDs Martin Schulz wants United States of Europe by 2025

https://www.politico.eu/article/spds-martin-schulz-wants-united-states-of-europe-by-2025/

Good for the SPD to finally have something they stand for.
Are they trying to kill themselves

Pretty sure they've been trying for a while now.
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« Reply #3197 on: December 11, 2017, 01:12:01 pm »
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Governments aside, which nations have majorities of people who would even want a United States of Europe at this point? This seems like something everyone wants as a long term goal but would never go for in the medium term.
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« Reply #3198 on: December 11, 2017, 04:32:44 pm »
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Governments aside, which nations have majorities of people who would even want a United States of Europe at this point? This seems like something everyone wants as a long term goal but would never go for in the medium term.
Literally none. Even in Germany, polling is against it, and the EU as it stands is much more unpopular in most other member states. The SPD has a deathwish, it seems. If they drag the CDU along this path, AfD and Linke will become the top parties in East Germany, ironically the opposite of what the grand coalition would want.
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« Reply #3199 on: December 11, 2017, 04:43:17 pm »
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Governments aside, which nations have majorities of people who would even want a United States of Europe at this point? This seems like something everyone wants as a long term goal but would never go for in the medium term.

Luxembourg lol

Maybe some clusters of countries like Malta and Belgium as well (in the good ole, "they can't screw things up as badly as our own politicians" tradition)
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