German Elections & Politics

[parochial boy]

Governments aside, which nations have majorities of people who would even want a United States of Europe at this point? This seems like something everyone wants as a long term goal but would never go for in the medium term.

Literally none. Even in Germany, polling is against it, and the EU as it stands is much more unpopular in most other member states. The SPD has a deathwish, it seems. If they drag the CDU along this path, AfD and Linke will become the top parties in East Germany, ironically the opposite of what the grand coalition would want.

lol wat?

[Hnv1]

Is there any progress going on?

[Tender Branson]

Is there any progress going on?

Could take a while ...

But don't worry: If Merkel is unable to form a government until July 1, then "workaholic" Kurz will take over her leading position in Europe and take control of the EU/Brexit talks with the Austrian EU presidency starting in the 2nd half of 2018. It would be nice to see Merkel being put down for a while.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm almost a million percent sure Kurz will never be the "leading figure in the EU".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)

[Hnv1]

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)

That’s a pretty long time for an interim government. Does the countdown for the next elections start with inauguration of a new government?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)

That’s a pretty long time for an interim government. Does the countdown for the next elections start with inauguration of a new government?

You mean when the next regular elections would be held? Still sometime around the September of 2021. The newly elected Bundestag was already constituted back in October and has worked ever since. The interim government which has been in existence since then has worked as sort of a hybrid between a de facto grand coalition and a de facto CDU/CSU minority government.

[Hnv1]

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)

That’s a pretty long time for an interim government. Does the countdown for the next elections start with inauguration of a new government?

You mean when the next regular elections would be held? Still sometime around the September of 2021. The newly elected Bundestag was already constituted back in October and has worked ever since. The interim government which has been in existence since then has worked as sort of a hybrid between a de facto grand coalition and a de facto CDU/CSU minority government.

Why haven’t the SPD used their leverage to force Merkel out?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why haven’t the SPD used their leverage to force Merkel out?

"What's the point?" is probably what they're thinking. In any case, this is probably Merkel's final term as Chancellor, and the SPD is right now focusing on getting some of their platform planks through (healthcare reform is a big one) instead of telling the CDU who should be their Chancellor.

[Beezer]

46% of Germans want Merkel to step down immediately. Is she finally living on borrowed time?

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article172039303/WELT-Trend-46-Prozent-der-Deutschen-wollen-dass-Merkel-sofort-zuruecktritt.html

[Tender Branson]

I'm almost a million percent sure Kurz will never be the "leading figure in the EU".

But he already has been, by implementing the closing of the Balkans route for migrants.

So, it's pretty likely that Kurz was put Merkel in the shadows during the 2nd half of 2018, especially if she's still preoccupied with forming a government then ...

Kurz is a workaholic, so he'll definitely be in the news a lot between July and December and yes, he's going to be a "leading figure in the EU".

[Beezer]

State poll for Bavaria:

[jaichind]

State poll for Bavaria:

Wow.  Just when one could not conceive of SPD going any lower.   
Question:  I was just compariing this poll to 2013 state election results and just realized that AfD did not run in 2013.  Any idea why ?  They got 4.2% in Bavaria a week later in the federal elections so it was worth a try.

[Beezer]

A quick Google search reveals that they were afraid a bad result in Bavaria could have had negative repercussions on the federal election a week later.

[TheSaint250]

State poll for Bavaria:

I wonder if the SPD could fall below the AfD.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What would be the CSU's first choice for coalition partner? Free voters? FDP?

[palandio]

State poll for Bavaria:

Wow.  Just when one could not conceive of SPD going any lower.   
[...]

I wonder if the SPD could fall below the AfD.

The SPD result in the 2013 state election (20.6%) was relatively good by Bavarian SPD standards. The 15% attributed to the Bavarian SPD in recent polls is more or less the 15.3% from the federal elections, so while this is of course very bad for the Bavarian SPD, it is also not very surprising. In fact 20% would have been surprising. I think that for the Bavarian SPD very much depends on their candidate and campaign. If they nominate some generic state party apparatchik, then 15% or less would be the default result. I'm not an expert, but Nuremberg mayor Ulrich Maly sounds like someone who could perform significantly better than a generic SPD candidate, particularly in the big cities and in Franconia.

Currently I expect the Bavarian AfD to score in single-digit territory in september because both Söder and the Free Voters will compete heavily, but I could of course be wrong.

When it comes to possible CSU coalition partners, the first option that comes to my mind is the FDP, which was already in government from 2008 to 2013. But after that they fell under the threashold and might be weary to repeat that experience. Next option are of course the Free Voters, but governing with the CSU they might find it difficult not to seem a complete CSU clone, so who knows.

[TheSaint250]

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Also, are FW willing to join CSU?

[Former President tack50]

Would a CSU-AfD coalition be viable considering that CSU is more conservative than CDU?

[Tender Branson]

This wasn't posted yet:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/world/europe/germany-twitter-muslims-hordes.html

Pretty sad to see Germany going into full Kalwejt-mode and surpressing free speech ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Would a CSU-AfD coalition be viable considering that CSU is more conservative than CDU?

No.

The CSU still follows Franz Josef Strauß' old mantra of "there shall not be a political party to the right of the Union", meaning their official goal is to make the AfD non-existent. And as we could witness at the recent AfD federal congress, if you happen to support entering coalitions with other parties you don't stand a chance at getting elected AfD chairman.

There's a more moderate faction within the AfD who's at least willing to enter coalitions with other parties provided that the AfD is the larger party in said coalition and the AfD can obtain the position of minister-president for themselves. But that isn't really an option in Bavaria.  Theoretically, this would only possible in some eastern states like Saxony-Anhalt or Saxony where the AfD is electorally stronger... provided the CDU would be willing to go along with it and support a AfD minister-president... which isn't the case really... so, no there won't be coalitions with the AfD on the state-level for the foreseeable future. ("Foreseeable future" probably means a five to ten year window, at the least.)

[palandio]

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Social-liberal? In what sense? Some of their policies could be considered vaguely social-liberal (anti-surveillance, free tuition, environmental protection), but for the most part their policies are centrist, conservative, populist or localist. Ideologically not too far from the CSU, but of course not the CSU.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good question. They might, but the risk is that they end up as a complete CSU clone.

[EPG]

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Also, are FW willing to join CSU?

Ten years ago, I knew some people connected to FW. A real mix of opinions, united by being against all other parties, but definitely closer to the German centre-right than the centre-left. It really depends on the local area and the local candidate. Nowadays, you may imagine that some of their voters may be supporting AfD instead.

[TheSaint250]

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Social-liberal? In what sense?

I meant in the more UK, left-of-center sense, but you and EPG answered my questions. Thanks, guys

[EPG]

Hm... The two societies are hard to compare. The equivalent to a liberal Labour MP may be found in either the SPD or the Greens, probably not the FDP, and probably not Bayern FW, I feel. Of course, this is relative because the centre grounds of political opinion are quite different. I'd add that in Bavaria, there is an apparent local-religious element that may affect party preference, and also that traditional social-liberal issues are less important in both Germany and the UK than domestic and European economic policies and immigration.