German Elections & Politics

[Oryxslayer]

If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

Haha no. Germany does not do minority governments. Merkel has two choices. She either A -  returns to Jamaica now effectively saying "you are our last hope." Of B - we get another election that at least right now, probably will return similar totals to the bundestag and begins Jamaica negotiations from the beginning. 

[Oryxslayer]

Is the FDP's decline in the polls rooted in their rejection of the Jamaican Coalition? Regardless, seeing DL ahead of that garbage can of a political party is quite heartening.

Unfortunately for this viewpoint it looks like INSA is a regular outlier in regards to DL.

In order to get a accurate picture of how opinions have changed since October, I am going to provide several polling averages (all lifted from Wikipedia). The first will be all polls only conducted in January (two INSA, two Forsa, one Emnid, and one dimap), the second will be the same grouping only the most recent poll for INSA and Forsa, the third will be all polls in the past month - since Dec 15 (five INSA, three Forsa, three Emnid, and one each of YouGov, Dimap, and GMS), and the fourth will use the same goruping as the third with the most recent poll. This comes out to:

Method	CDU/CSU	SPD	AfD	FDP	Linke	Greens	Others
Method 1	32.8	20	12.4	9	9.8	11	5
Method 2	32.9	20	12.8	9	9.6	11	4.7
Method 3	32.8	20.1	12.7	9	10	10.8	4.6
Method 4	32.8	20.2	13	8.9	9.8	10.8	4.5

                 

So overall, not a huge change. Perhaps things have changed wildly in the short term, with the reintroduction of another Grand Coalition, and things will change rapidly if another election is called. However, the recent changes since the election appear to be a small slide in SPD support, a small gain of AfD support, a comparatively big drop in FDP support, and a comparatively large rise in Green support. In is easy to assume that the changes in the Green and FDP vote share are the result of the failed Jamaica talks (and FDP pulling out), so perhaps SPD is in for a wild ride in their numbers ahead...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

Haha no. Germany does not do minority governments. Merkel has two choices. She either A -  returns to Jamaica now effectively saying "you are our last hope." Of B - we get another election that at least right now, probably will return similar totals to the bundestag and begins Jamaica negotiations from the beginning. 

Germany historically doesn't do minorities by convention, but conventions can change out of necessity. There's been a lot more talk of minority governments from the ptb than is the norm.

[Lord Halifax]

If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

Haha no. Germany does not do minority governments. Merkel has two choices. She either A -  returns to Jamaica now effectively saying "you are our last hope." Of B - we get another election that at least right now, probably will return similar totals to the bundestag and begins Jamaica negotiations from the beginning. 

Germany historically doesn't do minorities by convention, but conventions can change out of necessity. There's been a lot more talk of minority governments from the ptb than is the norm.

Yeah, all this "country/party x will NEVER do y" stuff is only valid until they do. No taboo or norm lasts forever. If the circumstances change enough the previously unthinkable becomes possible.

[Oryxslayer]

If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

Haha no. Germany does not do minority governments. Merkel has two choices. She either A -  returns to Jamaica now effectively saying "you are our last hope." Of B - we get another election that at least right now, probably will return similar totals to the bundestag and begins Jamaica negotiations from the beginning. 

Germany historically doesn't do minorities by convention, but conventions can change out of necessity. There's been a lot more talk of minority governments from the ptb than is the norm.

Yeah, all this "country/party x will NEVER do y" stuff is only valid until they do. No taboo or norm lasts forever. If the circumstances change enough the previously unthinkable becomes possible.

Oh I agree, circumstances can change. The situation however is not at the point where they will though.

 First off, Merkel likes her stability in government, it lends her greater freedom when working with Europe. A stable coalition lends her greater legitimacy in the eyes of the world, and has arguably made her the international figure that she is today. That goes away under a minority government, Merkel now would need to give a lot more attention to Berlin that she wants.

Secondly, lets take a step back and see what would happen if Merkel went for minority. Any deals with the AfD on bills are out of the question - right now they are political taboo and if they were willing to work with the govt, we would be looking at a CDU/AfD/FDP govt right now. They may end up voting for a govt bill once in a while, but that would be on their own preference, not to prop up the CDU. The AfD would likely end up showed aside like the Sweden Democrats furthur north. So, with that out of the way, Merkel bow needs to form a minority government. She probably pulls in one of the FDP/Greens to form a minority with a seat count north of 40%. But then what? Any bill passed would require the support of either the Greens/FDP or the SPD - their two current coalition partners. If Merkel is going to depend on one of those in a minority situation no matter what, would it be better to just form a govt eith them? They are still probably going to get punished for working with Merkel, even if they are outside the govt, but they won't have any influence on policy or government positions.

Yes a minority is possible, but the idea of the majority is such a key part of German political psyche that it will take more than two failed negotiations for it to fall. In my view there will be new elections if the SPD voters reject the agreement, and if negotiations fail following that election, than a minority could be in the cards.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Meanwhile in Bavaria: Markus Söder, who has been designated to take over the position of Minister President of Bavaria, has proclaimed that his first official act will be limiting the number of the minister president's terms to two.

[Tender Branson]

SPD @ 18% in the latest Forsa poll ...

[Beezer]

History has been made!

[Oryxslayer]

Poll in Question:

Data  (change since last Forza poll) [change since election rounded]

CDU/CSU: 34 (+1) [+1]
SPD: 18 (-2) [-2.5]
AfD: 12 (+1) [-.5]
Greens: 12 (=) [+3]
Linke: 10 (+1) [+1]
FDP: 8 (-1) [-3]

So, SPD are in for a wild ride in their numbers, just like the Greens and the FDP after the coalition talks. Support seems to be flowing to the Union and the minor Left parties, which is what you would expect.

Frankly, I don't see how the SPD can accept the coalition with these numbers. A two point drop, which is 10% of their 2017 vote mind you, in one week due to the current talks. Accepting the Grand Coalition will probably send the SPD into the ~10% moshpit with the rest of the non-Union parties. if they know whats good for them, they have to reject the deal.

[Former President tack50]

As of now I'm beginning to wonder if Germany 2018 is going to be like Spain 2016. At least in both cases you had the centre left party (SPD/PSOE) being pressured by everyone to accept a coalition with the main centre right party (CDU/PP) with an unpopular leader. And any other alternatives were very hard (Jamaica or the 5 party deal for the 2017 budget in Spain) or involved parties viewed as untochable even with a 10 feet pole (AfD/Catalan nationalists)

Then again there are a ton of differences.

Spain has a minority government and those aren't rare at all. Minority governments are almost nonexistant in Germany. So SPD will have a harder time selling another grand coalition.

Martin Schulz seems like he is happy with the grand coalition. Pedro Sánchez was not happy with that, to the point where he was ousted as party leader and resigned his seat in Congress to avoid voting for it, or against his party.

AfD and the Catalan parties/Bildu, while both toxic to most others, they are toxic for very different reasons

IMO in this scenario the best winning move for SPD is not to play. Just tell Merkel no and tell her to either get a minority government (offer to pass the next 2 budgets in exchange if necessary, but ideally not), Jamaica, try forming a government (though an SPD government is almost impossible) or just tell the president to call for a new election.

[parochial boy]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

[jaichind]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

Only way out is for enough voters to vote for CDU/CSU and FDP to get a majority of seats.  I have no idea where the votes will come from for this since Greens AfD and Linke will not fall below the 5% threshold.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

I suppose there's about a 50-50 shot for a Black-Green majority after in a snap election. Perhaps more than that once people start to figure out during the campaign that this the only viable two-party coalition left, and voters start to flock to CDU and Greens purely for tactical reasons to end that stalemate. As far as we know, CDU/CSU and Greens were pretty close to reaching at least an bilateral agreement in the final Jamaica rounds until the FDP suddenly pulled out and terminated the talks.

At least yesterday's Forsa poll had Black-Green at 46% and the prospective SPD-AfD-Left-FDP opposition at 48%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

Only way out is for enough voters to vote for CDU/CSU and FDP to get a majority of seats.  I have no idea where the votes will come from for this since Greens AfD and Linke will not fall below the 5% threshold.

Reaching a Black-Yellow majority is currently farther away than it was on election day in Sept. 2017, mostly due the FDP taking a dip in the polls after they pulled out of the Jamaica talks (or rather the way they pulled out of it).

[Oryxslayer]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

Only way out is for enough voters to vote for CDU/CSU and FDP to get a majority of seats.  I have no idea where the votes will come from for this since Greens AfD and Linke will not fall below the 5% threshold.

Reaching a Black-Yellow majority is currently farther away than it was on election day in Sept. 2017, mostly due the FDP taking a dip in the polls after they pulled out of the Jamaica talks (or rather the way they pulled out of it).

Yeah, with the greens on the Rise, Black-Green is the obvious solution to the impasse - if new elections do occur. As said, they are currently close to a majority, and once it becomes the advertised government, they might pick up more FDP/SPD voters to get a majority.

One thing that I have been thinking about is what happens if (when?) the deal is rejected by the SPD. If so, then the FDP really doesn't want new elections. They are dropping in the polls, and once black-green starts up, they will probably drop even further. I mean, their voters were happy to give the party 0 seats in 2013 and flip to the CDU. I don't see such a stark scenario, but there will be a fall off. If so, then it may be in the FDPs interest to return to the Jamaica idea, in order to stave off losing seats...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

Only way out is for enough voters to vote for CDU/CSU and FDP to get a majority of seats.  I have no idea where the votes will come from for this since Greens AfD and Linke will not fall below the 5% threshold.

Reaching a Black-Yellow majority is currently farther away than it was on election day in Sept. 2017, mostly due the FDP taking a dip in the polls after they pulled out of the Jamaica talks (or rather the way they pulled out of it).

Yeah, with the greens on the Rise, Black-Green is the obvious solution to the impasse - if new elections do occur. As said, they are currently close to a majority, and once it becomes the advertised government, they might pick up more FDP/SPD voters to get a majority.

One thing that I have been thinking about is what happens if (when?) the deal is rejected by the SPD. If so, then the FDP really doesn't want new elections. They are dropping in the polls, and once black-green starts up, they will probably drop even further. I mean, their voters were happy to give the party 0 seats in 2013 and flip to the CDU. I don't see such a stark scenario, but there will be a fall off. If so, then it may be in the FDPs interest to return to the Jamaica idea, in order to stave off losing seats...

The thing is that Christian Lindner was very adamant in stressing that Jamaica will be completely impossible for this legislative term, and I don't really see him backing down or flip-flopping on the issue. Everytime one of his underlings tried to water down the FDP's position on this, he was quick to repudiate it. In that regard he also a completely different character than Martin Schulz.

One might say that Schulz is a weak man. At the very least, he's a more consensus-oriented person. Lindner is certainly a more self-centered guy, but this also makes him the type who standy by it, no matter what. He said there will be no Jamaica, period. If anyone in his party disagrees, he or she should just shut the hell up. Some in his party care about that 8% in his polls, he doesn't... or at least he gives the impression that he doesn't it.

In a way that's an admirable quality, and it also makes him so successful as he is... even though it also makes him an arrogant prick at the same time.

To put it short... he's much less likely to walk away from his promise. He'll probably be unwilling to lose face like Martin Schulz did.


But to adress some other aspect... with regards to a possible snap election, there's also the Steinmeier factor. The constitution gives the German president great leeway in calling (or not calling) a snap election, when a government formation has failed. And so far, he has always stressed that he's very reluctant to call a snap election. It's for that reason that it's entirely possible that he'll insist on a minority government, if the grand coalition fails. If this will be a Black-Green minority government or some other option, remains to be seen though.

[Oryxslayer]

SPD Party conference is Tomorrow...any locals have any idea how that will go? Reject or Pass?

Also, does anyone have anything resembling a "whip count?" I know Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt have advised rejection, Brandenburg and Hamburg have encouraged acceptance, and I believe North-Rhine Westphalia has not stated anything. Is there a full list, or is that it?

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD Party conference is Tomorrow...any locals have any idea how that will go? Reject or Pass?

I'd say it passes narrowly. But since we had so many plot twists since the election, I wouldn't bet any money on it.

Also, does anyone have anything resembling a "whip count?" I know Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt have advised rejection, Brandenburg and Hamburg have encouraged acceptance, and I believe North-Rhine Westphalia has not stated anything. Is there a full list, or is that it?

Not really. The SPD leadership in Rhineland-Palatinate has refrained from "advising" their delegates on how to vote, for example. NRW supports a grand coalition, but only if significant portions of the preliminary agreement with the CDU are renegotiated.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

SPD Party conference is Tomorrow...any locals have any idea how that will go? Reject or Pass?

Also, does anyone have anything resembling a "whip count?" I know Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt have advised rejection, Brandenburg and Hamburg have encouraged acceptance, and I believe North-Rhine Westphalia has not stated anything. Is there a full list, or is that it?

Here is a list, including the number of delegates from each state:

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/groko-spd-sonderparteitag-landesverbaende-1.3832477

[Oryxslayer]

SPD Party conference is Tomorrow...any locals have any idea how that will go? Reject or Pass?

Also, does anyone have anything resembling a "whip count?" I know Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt have advised rejection, Brandenburg and Hamburg have encouraged acceptance, and I believe North-Rhine Westphalia has not stated anything. Is there a full list, or is that it?

Here is a list, including the number of delegates from each state:

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/groko-spd-sonderparteitag-landesverbaende-1.3832477

Ooo Thanks!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I've been following the special party convention, and I'm concluding from the emotional speeches that 80% will approve of beginning the coalition talks.

[Oryxslayer]

I've been following the special party convention, and I'm concluding from the emotional speeches that 80% will approve of beginning the coalition talks.

A little under 1/6th of the delegates are young, and considering that groups strong opposition to a renewed grand Coalition, the ceiling for acceptance is probably a little lower.

Strange I got a different take from the speeches. Schultz sounded a tiny bit desperate, and the speeches have been mixed in their support/opposition. I'm also leaning towards agreement right now, but not by such a high margin.

[RedPrometheus]

I’m a delegate at the conference and I am now 100% certain that the delegates will approve the coalition talks. Andrea Nahles speech really changed the mood in the hall.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I've been following the special party convention, and I'm concluding from the emotional speeches that 80% will approve of beginning the coalition talks.

A little under 1/6th of the delegates are young, and considering that groups strong opposition to a renewed grand Coalition, the ceiling for acceptance is probably a little lower.

Strange I got a different take from the speeches. Schultz sounded a tiny bit desperate, and the speeches have been mixed in their support/opposition. I'm also leaning towards agreement right now, but not by such a high margin.

Andrea Nahles, however, sounded very aggressive,as though she wanted to tell every critic of coalition talks: "I know where you live. See you later..."

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I’m a delegate at the conference and I am now 100% certain that the delegates will approve the coalition talks. Andrea Nahles speech really changed the mood in the hall.

Oh, we have a V.I.P. here
Will the vote be secret or will it be like a roll call?