German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

One upcoming state election is completely disregarded even though it may be the most interesting one ever.
Not only could the AfD become the strongest party in Saxony next fall (even a majority is possible), and a new party (Frauke Petry's Blue Party) could enter the parliament, it can't be ruled out anymore that the SPD could even come below the 5% threshold...

Landtag election 2014: 12.4%
Bundestag election 2017: 10.5%

[_]

Welp, I didn't expect it that quickly.  Can't wait for another poll to confirm so everyone stops doubting

[rob in cal]

  Wow, Saxony this year could really provide some historical results.  Would love to see one of the big two parties (or formerly big) miss the 5% threshold.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wow, Saxony this next year could really provide some historical results.  Would love to see one of the big two parties (or formerly big) miss the 5% threshold.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

While I believe that support for the SPD has dropped over the past few months, from a statistical standpoint, it's clear that nearly all of these polls ought to be chucked into a dumpster. Suppose that the SPD's polling numbers reflect their actual support. Then, they've roughly gone from 20% to 16%. German polls have very large sample sizes so I'll be generous and assume a standard error of 1% - I could probably figure this out precisely but I don't feel like it. Further, I'll suppose that, for each poll posted by Al that the polling figure for the SPD is the actual support for the SPD.

With this in mind, what are the odds of that pattern showing up if, indeed, it was the actual support for the SPD? We can think about this in different ways. First, I'll use a random number generator based on the normal distribution (20 samples) and assume that the 0.5% drop is real for some week, say, from 17% to 16.5%:



Roughly half of the time, we'd expect nothing to register in the poll and, this is what I think matters, in 3 separate cases, the SPD would increase their polling figure. Now, this is a random number generator so this would vary but the point being - if the polling companies weren't fudging their numbers, even if the sustained drop is real, we'd expect there to be a poll or two where the SPD increased their polling figure. That this hasn't happened is extremely suspicious and indicative of a human hand dictated the polling figures.

[Middle-aged Europe]

While I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment that changes of half a point are nothing worth reporting, it should be noted that they're hardly the only ones "telegraphing" the SPD's demise...

INSA is the only polling institute which exclusively reports dropping numbers for the SPD in every poll they published since mid-December. Most of the other insitutes at least had one or the two polls in this period where the SPD slightly improved... which is more plausible, statistically speaking.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If you don't mind me to do a little more INSA bashing.... the main headline on bild.de reads right now (in huge font):

"AfD OVERTAKES SPD!"

Naturally, you have to pay to access that specific article though.

Yes Tender, I know that the SPD in bad shape... that doesn't stop BILD/INSA to milk it dry in every way possible.

Here's a little fun fact about INSA:

The URL of the polling firm is: www.insa-meinungstrend.de
The URL www.insa.de, however, is registered for the local public transport information system of Saxony-Anhalt.

[King of Kensington]

Of the SPD voters who would not vote for the Social Democrats, one third (34 percent) would not vote. 24 percent would move to the Greens, 20 percent to the Union parties, eleven percent to the Left Party , six percent to the FDP , four percent to the AfD and one percent to another party.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb

[Harlow]

Of SPD defectors, 34% would no longer vote, 24 would vote Green and 20% each for the FPD and AFD.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb

No defectors to Die Linke?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Of SPD defectors, 34% would no longer vote, 24 would vote Green and 20% each for the FPD and AFD for the CDU/CSU, 11% for the Left, 6% for the FDP and 4% for the AfD.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/wahlumfrage-sonntagsfrage-afd-ueberholt-spd-im-bund/20979254.html?share=fb

[Harlow]

That makes much more sense.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

[DavidB.]

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now

[Middle-aged Europe]

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now

I understand that you've apparently degenerated into some kind of troll now who's not interested any longer in any meaningful debate. Therefore it's probably a waste of my life-time to write these sentences.

However, the criticism I've (and probably Al as well, but he should speak for himself if he wants to) brought forward against INSA doesn't apply to these Infratest and FGW polls. The most recent Infratest poll which showed a small gain for the SPD - while remaining at a very low overall level - does in fact underline my argument that the INSA numbers are statistically implausible.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

But but muh INSA conspiracy; ahkhkchually the SPD are leading the polls right now

Literally no one is making this argument - people are arguing that INSA is a trash polling company.

[mvd10]

JENS SPAHN IN CABINET
MUTTI ALL IS FORGIVEN

But healthcare is quite a thorny portfolio right? What did the SPD and CDU/CSU agree on healthcare anyway?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

97% of the delegates of the CDU party convention have approved the coalition agreement.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

98.87% of the delegates elected Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, currently Minister President of the Saarland, Secretary General.

[Tender Branson]

Brand new YouGov poll:



Compared with their poll from a month ago:

CDU/CSU: -2%
SPD: -3%
AfD: +2%
Greens: +2%
Left: +1%
FDP: n.c.
Others: n.c.

[DavidB.]

YouGov are also far-right meanies!

[_]

Rest in Spaghet SPD, Forever Regret

[TheSaint250]

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

[Former President tack50]

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

Wow, AfD+Linke at 46%. I wonder what will happen when the negative majority of AfD-Linke reaches 50% somewhere. Repeat elections forever? CDU-Linke deals? Or will AfD finally be treated like a normal party?