German Elections & Politics

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who would the CSU take as a junior partner? The FDP?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Who would the CSU take as a junior partner? The FDP?

I think the Free Voters are the CSU's natural allies. But under the new king emperor pope minister president Markus Söder I couldn't even exclude a coalition with the AfD, which received the best West German result in Bavaria at the last federal election.

By the way, Söder received two major shitstorms in the last week.
Firstly because he issued a decree ordering all public authorities to hang up a Christian cross in every room, as it "belongs to the foundations of our country", it has an "identity-establishing, formative effect for society" and it is a bit of "self-assurance for our cultural, social and immaterial values". Even his science minister Marion Kiechle criticized Söder for his decree.
His Instagram picture of himself holding a cross has already become a meme:




Secondly because of an Instagram picture showing a golden coin minted with his likeness as a present from the Bavarian Civil Service Federation:

[Tender Branson]

Who would the CSU take as a junior partner? The FDP?

According to the poll, the CSU could also govern alone again.

There's the 5% threshold and if the FDP gets 4.99%, then the CSU is at 44% and the opposition at 43% ...

[Tender Branson]

SPD Bayern dropping like a rock with just a few months until the state election (new Infratest poll for the BR):

[President Johnson]

SPD Bayern dropping like a rock with just a few months until the state election (new Infratest poll for the BR):

Horrible numbers for the SPD. We're a dead party in many states, especially Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and large parts of East Germany. But the CSU numbers are not much better by their standards. I really don't see how they can keep their absolute majority. It's going to be interesting what coalition will came around in the fall. I think either with the FDP and/or Free Voters or the SPD. The Greens not so much.

[SNJ1985]

It's going to be interesting what coalition will came around in the fall. I think either with the FDP and/or Free Voters or the SPD. The Greens not so much.

Would I be correct in assuming that the AfD not being an option has more to do with them wanting to placate the CDU than any ideological differences?

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's going to be interesting what coalition will came around in the fall. I think either with the FDP and/or Free Voters or the SPD. The Greens not so much.

Would I be correct in assuming that the AfD not being an option has more to do with them wanting to placate the CDU than any ideological differences?

Well, if we take the set of 38 issues covered by the 2017 Wahl-o-mat test as a standard, then the platforms of the CDU/CSU and the AfD were in complete agreement in 16 out of these 38 issues.


Comparison of other parties with CDU/CSU:

- CDU/CSU and SPD: 21 out of 38

- CDU/CSU and FDP: 20 out of 38

- CDU/CSU and Greens: 16 out of 38

- CDU/CSU and Left: 9 out of 38

- Bonus: Greens and AfD: 10 out of 38

- Bonus: FDP and AfD: 23 out of 38


One could of course say if coalitions between CDU and Greens are possible, then coalitions between CDU and AfD ought also be possible.


Source: https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/bundestagswahl2017/Positionsvergleich_Bundestagswahl2017

[TheSaint250]

SPD Bayern dropping like a rock with just a few months until the state election (new Infratest poll for the BR):

The fact that it's the Greens who are benefitting from this is both strange and amusing.  What's with their rise nationwide?

[pilskonzept]

The fact that it's the Greens who are benefitting from this is both strange and amusing.  What's with their rise nationwide?

The Bavaria numbers don't suggest this, exactly. CSU-Green swing voters are at least as important (in part because the SPD has always been marginal outside of 1) the big cities, 2) post WW2-refugees and their descendants and 3) the Franconian protestant belt.)

True on the nationwide scale though. It's partly a protest vote against SPD joining the government, and partly about the...relationship? between the SPD and the ethnic German working class.

[TheSaint250]

The fact that it's the Greens who are benefitting from this is both strange and amusing.  What's with their rise nationwide?

The Bavaria numbers don't suggest this, exactly. CSU-Green swing voters are at least as important (in part because the SPD has always been marginal outside of 1) the big cities, 2) post WW2-refugees and their descendants and 3) the Franconian protestant belt.)

True on the nationwide scale though. It's partly a protest vote against SPD joining the government, and partly about the...relationship? between the SPD and the ethnic German working class.

Huh. So the CSU-Green vote could still fluctuate?

Also, on national scale, why can’t Linke seem to benefit? I feel like since they were the only of the three main left-wing parties to not seek a coalition they would do better.

[Tender Branson]

"He issued a decree ordering all public authorities to hang up a Christian cross in every room."

This decision is pretty popular though in Bavaria, contrary to what you call a "sh*tstorm":

INFRATEST dimap poll

56% support
38% oppose

By party:

77-19 AfD
71-24 CSU
56-32 FW
52-46 SPD
29-67 FDP
26-74 Greens

Rural areas: 66% support
Urban areas: 45% support

https://www.br.de/br-fernsehen/sendungen/kontrovers/index.html

[pilskonzept]

Huh. So the CSU-Green vote could still fluctuate?

That's possible, especially if CSU tries to adopt AfD positions in style as opposed to just adopting them in substance.

Also, on national scale, why can’t Linke seem to benefit? I feel like since they were the only of the three main left-wing parties to not seek a coalition they would do better.

Oh, they do benefit. In the West outside of the South, that is.

In the East, the are losing to AfD whatever they gain from other parties. In Bavaria and BaWü, they're still not very well organized.

[TheSaint250]

Huh. So the CSU-Green vote could still fluctuate?

That's possible, especially if CSU tries to adopt AfD positions in style as opposed to just adopting them in substance.

Also, on national scale, why can’t Linke seem to benefit? I feel like since they were the only of the three main left-wing parties to not seek a coalition they would do better.

Oh, they do benefit. In the West outside of the South, that is.

In the East, the are losing to AfD whatever they gain from other parties. In Bavaria and BaWü, they're still not very well organized.

Ah ok. Thank you!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Approval numbers of the federal government. Please note the numbers of the SPD supporters:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Approval ratings of the top-ranking politicians. Please note Interior Minister Horst Seehofer's numbers:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And last but not least: The trustworthiness of certain countries; it's the first time that the Germans consider the USA less reliable than Russia:

[President Johnson]

And last but not least: The trustworthiness of certain countries; it's the first time that the Germans consider the USA less reliable than Russia:

Great job, Donald!

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

And last but not least: The trustworthiness of certain countries; it's the first time that the Germans consider the USA less reliable than Russia:

Great job, Donald!

[Tender Branson]

Merkel's so-called "grand" CDU-SPD coalition got heavily attacked in the Bundestag today by AfD-leader Alice Weidel:

http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-angela-merkel-ignores-xenophobic-attack-in-bundestag-debate/a-43801414

Merkel of course ignored her comments, not understanding that she herself is responsible for the rapid rise of the AfD ... just as Karl Lagerfeld puts it:

https://www.independent.ie/style/karl-lagerfeld-expresses-disdain-for-angela-merkel-and-her-decision-to-open-borders-to-hundreds-of-thousands-of-refugees-36901588.html

[DavidB.]

And last but not least: The trustworthiness of certain countries; it's the first time that the Germans consider the USA less reliable than Russia:

Dutch pollster peil.nl did this too. Trustworthiness by country: Germany 87%, UK 75%, France 72%, U.S. 39%, China 33%, Russia 13%. So the Dutch public clearly trusts France and Russia much less than the German public, but is more positive about the U.S. No surprise at all, but still interesting.

[palandio]

Convention of The Left in Leipzig.

A lot of internal strife, but the cleavages have shifted compared to the past. In the past the main cleavage was between realos who are open to make compromises in coalition governments, and fundis who are much less open to compromise on the core issues. Both the party leadership and the caucus leadership composition are the result of compromises between these wings. Realo Katja Kipping and fundi Bernd Riexinger are the party chairmen. Fundi Sahra Wagenknecht and realo Dietmar Bartsch are the caucus leaders.

The new main cleavage seems to be between Wagenknecht and some of her allies who want to follow a more populist direction, particularly on immigration on one side; and Kipping, Riexinger and probably the majority of the party, who follow the no border credo, on the other side. In the parliamentary caucus there seems to be a tactical alliance between Wagenknecht's supporters and their former adversaries, the Eastern traditionalists around Bartsch, without Bartsch sharing most of Wagenknecht's political positions. There has been speculation about a pro-Wagenknecht candidate running for party leadership, but it seems that Kipping and Riexinger will run unopposed. The main contested position seems to be party secretary, where the race is between Jörg Schindler who is supported by the party leadership, and Frank Tempel from the Bartsch wing.

My impression is that Wagenknecht will split from the party in the close future. The question is who will follow her.

[palandio]

Almost all delegates on the Left convention voted for a motion that calls for open borders. (An earlier draft had called for open borders for all).

Kipping and Riexinger were reelected without challengers, but with lackluster percentages (Kipping 64.5%, Riexinger 73.8%).

Schindler won against Tempel, but only on the second ballot with a plurality of three votes.

Difficult to say what all of this means. It seems to me that a majority of the party supports the non-restrictive course on immigration but probably wants to put the issue in the background. On the other hand a significant minority puts at least part of the blame for the strife on the party leadership and doesn't want to go full Kipping-style SJW mode. They want to hold the party together somehow which will be difficult enough.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Wagenknecht were to leave would she try and start her own party?

[palandio]

I would think so. The thing is that she has already founded an informal side project, a so called Left-wing rally movement. Other prominent members seem to include her husband Oskar Lafontaine, veteran SPD politician Rudolf Dreßler, SPD MPs Cansel Kiziltepe and Marco Bülow and intellectual Bernd Stegemann.

The thing is that while the official goal is not to split the Left, but to attract disappointed voters from SPD, Greens and other parties, I don't get how this would work inside the LINKE.