German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

New polls! https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crbilderstrecke-495.html

Great job Merkel and Seehofer, 78% disapprove the job performance of the federal government.




Approval of the cabinet:




Approval of leading politicans:




Good that Scholz is surging.

[Diouf]

CSU deserve to go down in flames now. Making such a big fuss about migrants, and then ending up accepting a deal that does nothing to handle the problem. Either accept to work gradually towards better solutions (which yes, will unfortunately take time), or leave the government when Merkel and SPD refuse to make tighter rules. Seehofer is completely humiliated. Don't make threats, you are not willing to follow through on.

As I can read, what has now been agreed is that migrants, who have applied for asylum in another EU country, will now be handled quicker at some police stations near the border. That is an incredibly small number of the people coming; most migrants of course do everything to avoid having to apply for asylum anywhere else than their preferred destination of Germany. This will change very little, and it will still be very hard to get Italy or Hungary to take back the few migrants, that might have applied for asylum there before getting to Germany.

[mvd10]

New polls! https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crbilderstrecke-495.html

Great job Merkel and Seehofer, 78% disapprove the job performance of the federal government.




Approval of the cabinet:




Approval of leading politicans:




Good that Scholz is surging.

Do they have approval rating crosstabs by party? I'd be interested to see what CSU voters think of the CDU leadership (and vice versa)

[President Johnson]

New polls! https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crbilderstrecke-495.html

Great job Merkel and Seehofer, 78% disapprove the job performance of the federal government.




Approval of the cabinet:




Approval of leading politicans:




Good that Scholz is surging.

Do they have approval rating crosstabs by party? I'd be interested to see what CSU voters think of the CDU leadership (and vice versa)

They have. Even 63% of CDU/CSU supporters and 73% of SPD supproters disapprove the government's performance.

[TheSaint250]

Is Scholz a Third Wayer?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Is Scholz a Third Wayer?

Yes, or as we call them in Germany: a Seeheimer.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Who is seen as the most likely successor to the chancellorship if Merkel were to step down, von der Leyen?

[Oryxslayer]

Who is seen as the most likely successor to the chancellorship if Merkel were to step down, von der Leyen?

I thought Kramp-Karrenbauer was being groomed for the role.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Who is seen as the most likely successor to the chancellorship if Merkel were to step down, von der Leyen?

I thought Kramp-Karrenbauer was being groomed for the role.

I'm sure that Schäuble would play the interim chancellor until the next elections.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This whole conundrum has caused the '02 election to reenter my thought-space - How did Stoiber even manage to hustle himself into the position of Chancellor-candidate for the Union, anyhow? It's insane just how close that under-discussed election was, too: Just over six thousand votes separated the parties national popular vote totals!

Had the Union led by 6,000 votes instead, red-green would still have won as the Greens were significantly stronger than the FDP.
The two main reasons why Schröder was able to make up so much ground were his rejection of sending troops to Iraq and his handling of the devastating floods in East Germany.

There was a in-fighting between Merkel and Stoiber as to who should become chancellor candidate. Merkel copped out as though she knew red-green were going to win the election.

To understand German politics at the pre-Merkel era you have to be aware of the fact that Merkel symbolized everything that the CDU used to fight against: She is not only a woman, she is also childless, once divorced, from East Germany and, worst of all, a Protestant.
Stoiber, on the other hand, was the Governor of a economically very strong, very rich, very big state, he has been reelected with a majority several times, and the CSU laid claim to the nomination after the CDU had provided the chancellor candidate every time after 1980.

[Ethelberth]

Interstingly Markus Söder is actually protestant.

[palandio]

Interestingly Markus Söder is actually protestant.

In my opinion being a Franconian protestant is one reason why he tries even harder to appeal to (pre-Napoleonic) Old Bavarian catholic conservatives. Speak about compensation.

[Tender Branson]

It's the economy that is saving Merkel's ass right now and keeps her glued to her seat.

If the economy were somehow entering recession, she wouldn't hang on for another week or so ...

Because the economy is doing well and Germans have good wages on their bank accounts, they probably overlook her naive policy, scandals, incompetence and blood on her hands when it comes to (illegal) immigrants.

But German voters increasingly do so with grinding teeth. Reminds me of Faymann back in 2014/2015, when 70-80% of Austrian voters also disapproved of him and the government.

[Beezer]

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1014874985276592131?s=21

For what it's worth, election.de is still giving the AfD 3-4 districts: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?map=btw21e_prognose_180615

As is INSA: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1014874985276592131?s=21

For what it's worth, election.de is still giving the AfD 3-4 districts: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?map=btw21e_prognose_180615

As is INSA: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

Yeah, I saw that after I posted it, which now makes me suspicious as to how they calculated this.

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid poll out today, which has the AfD at a record high:



It should also be noted that virtually all pollsters underestimated the AfD ahead of the federal election by about 2-3%.

[Umengus]

Insa poll (Bild)

CDU-CSU 29
AFD 17,5
SPD 17
Greens 12
Linke 11
FDP 9,5

[pilskonzept]

Sure, INSA needs to stay ahead of the curve.

[DavidB.]

Sweden all over again. Two years from now INSA will have AfD at 25% and people in this thread will insist that it's really, really 20%.

[RedPrometheus]

New poll from Bavaria, CSU headed for electoral disaster (for their standards):

CSU: 38%
SPD: 13%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 5%
Left: 4%
Free Voters: 9%
AfD: 12%
Others: 3%

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bayerntrend-103.html

[Former President tack50]

In the unlikely case that the FDP falls bellow the threshold and CSU+FW doesn't get a majority, which would be the likeliest coalition? CSU+Greens? CSU+SPD? Or the unholy CSU+AfD?

[Tender Branson]

[TheSaint250]

Is there an easy way to plug in percentages and find approximately what the outcome of the election will be?

In the unlikely case that the FDP falls bellow the threshold and CSU+FW doesn't get a majority, which would be the likeliest coalition? CSU+Greens? CSU+SPD? Or the unholy CSU+AfD?

According to this article, Söder called AfD “un-Bavarian,” and the Secretary General apparently implied it is a fascist party. I would put the chances of a CSU-AfD coalition as being pretty much impossible. Of course, things could change, but unlike with the FPÖ or Lega, the party is still relatively new, and the concept of it being in government is still unacceptable in Germany.

Without any knowledge of what the parties have said, I would guess the coalitions would be made in this order (in the scenario that they could all happen):

1. CSU-FDP
2. CSU-FW
3. CSU-SPD
4. CSU-Grüne
5. CSU-AfD

[King of Kensington]

Will this go anywhere?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/german-leftwingers-woo-voters-with-national-social-stance

[mvd10]

Will this go anywhere?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/german-leftwingers-woo-voters-with-national-social-stance

I believe in a political compass-like quadrant (with less hackish questions obviously) most voters would fall in the left-wing authoritorian part. But in the Netherlands a similar initiative ('left-wing conservatism') has failed spectacularly. I'm not sure whether Die Linke's approach will work, most voters probably prefer 'the real thing'. I do think it's pretty much inevitable the AfD will eventually move away from it's economically libertarian roots.

Anyway, do these people realize they're in Germany? 'National Social'? Can't they come up with something else lol?