German Elections & Politics

[DavidB.]

Probably not too much on the issues, more in leadership style. Brinkhaus wants the caucus to be a little more independent-minded rather than just be in Merkel's bag. He didn't ran against her, just a different new style.

How do you translate Fraktionsvorsitzender into English? I wasn't quite sure.

Parliamentary group leader.

[President Johnson]

Probably not too much on the issues, more in leadership style. Brinkhaus wants the caucus to be a little more independent-minded rather than just be in Merkel's bag. He didn't ran against her, just a different new style.

How do you translate Fraktionsvorsitzender into English? I wasn't quite sure.

Parliamentary group leader.

I was too much into the American term of parlamentary group. This is a bit similar to foreign minister and secretary of state (though their roles are not 100% identical).

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

[PSOL]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

Would FDP be willing to join a CSU government or will they coalition with a possible SPD-green coalition.

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

Would FDP be willing to join a CSU government or will they coalition with a possible SPD-green coalition.

None of this has a majority.

The most likely scenario right now is that after their bad defeat, the CSU will chase out (= "in die Wüste schicken") Governor Söder and replace him with someone else (Ilse Aigner ?), who will then enter a coalition with the election winners - the Greens.

[jaichind]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

Would FDP be willing to join a CSU government or will they coalition with a possible SPD-green coalition.

None of this has a majority.

The most likely scenario right now is that after their bad defeat, the CSU will chase out (= "in die Wüste schicken") Governor Söder and replace him with someone else (Ilse Aigner ?), who will then enter a coalition with the election winners - the Greens.

Why is CSU-FDP-FW not possible ?

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

Would FDP be willing to join a CSU government or will they coalition with a possible SPD-green coalition.

None of this has a majority.

The most likely scenario right now is that after their bad defeat, the CSU will chase out (= "in die Wüste schicken") Governor Söder and replace him with someone else (Ilse Aigner ?), who will then enter a coalition with the election winners - the Greens.

Why is CSU-FDP-FW not possible ?

It would probably be possible based on the election results, but not when it comes to the main political actors. A coalition with 3 parties is unlikely because it would be rather unstable. I think the CSU will moderate after the election, especially on immigration (which they used to push hard in the last weeks to "destroy" the AfD to their right, with no real effect). This will open the door for the Greens, with whom the CSU has a lot in common other than on immigration.

[President Johnson]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

This is brutal. I wonder how deep the CSU has to sink that Markus Söder can't stay on. If they really end up with 34%, I don't see him surviving as MP. Ilse Aigner may replace him in such a scenario.

Some folks raised the option of a "all but CSU+AfD" coaltion with a green MP. That would be fun, but I doubt it happens.

[rob in cal]

 Also a CSU AFD majority is within striking distance, making a everybody but CSU AFD coalition that much tougher.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The CSU can't really jump in bed with the Greens after traipsing so far to the right; it would be economic suicide for them surely?

I wonder if the Left will get in?

[Beezer]

Party affiliation/preferences of Germans w/ and w/o a migration background:



Among Turkish Germans:



Among ethnic Germans from EEurope that migrated back to Germany, usually after the 1980s:



Source: https://www.svr-migration.de/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/SVR_Parteipraeferenzen_2018.pdf

[Beezer]

So in about a month's time the AfD should be represented in all 16 state parliaments. Have any of the other smaller parties ever achieved that? I assume the FDP simultaneously held seats in the 11 state parliaments of the old federal republic, but I doubt anyone's been able to achieve this feat since 1990.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sitzverteilung_in_den_deutschen_Landesparlamenten

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So in about a month's time the AfD should be represented in all 16 state parliaments. Have any of the other smaller parties ever achieved that? I assume the FDP simultaneously held seats in the 11 state parliaments of the old federal republic, but I doubt anyone's been able to achieve this feat since 1990.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sitzverteilung_in_den_deutschen_Landesparlamenten

The Greens were represented in all states from 2011 (with their Fukushima bump) till 2016, when they fell from the  Mecklenburg Vorpommern legislature.

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, a number of Jews are establishing a platform for Jews within AfD. Some AfD politicians, most prominently Beatrix von Storch, will speak at the launch event on October 7th. Encouraging news.

[Sir Mohamed]

Why are the governing parties doing do poorly at the federal and state level? I thought Merkel was at least semi-popular, even after the refugee crisis of 2015?

[DavidB.]

Why are the governing parties doing do poorly at the federal and state level? I thought Merkel was at least semi-popular, even after the refugee crisis of 2015?

Many CDU voters disagree with Merkel's handling of the mass immigration situation, and her style of governing is starting to annoy people in general even apart from that issue.

Many SPD voters resent the fact that the party has once again entered a grand coalition without a left-wing profile. In addition, the SPD leadership just seems inept and it seems as if there is no clear direction in the party's behavior.

[Beezer]

Why are the governing parties doing do poorly at the federal and state level? I thought Merkel was at least semi-popular, even after the refugee crisis of 2015?

I suppose this depends on your definition of "semi-popular". Merkel first entered office with 35% of the vote. In the most recent election she got 33%. Considering that she had been in office for 12 years, I suppose that could be classified as a halfway decent result.

David has already mentioned the main points regarding the SPD. It is suffering from the same problem most other social democrats have to contend with across Europe: The complete lack of a distinctive platform and the rise of socially liberal ideas at the expense of economic leftism which has alienated large chunks of its traditional white working-class base.

[palandio]

Party affiliation/preferences of Germans w/ and w/o a migration background:



Among Turkish Germans:



Among ethnic Germans from EEurope that migrated back to Germany, usually after the 1980s:



Source: https://www.svr-migration.de/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/SVR_Parteipraeferenzen_2018.pdf

I find it worth mentioning that they released the party preferences of people without a migrational background, too. Results were CDU/CSU 37.6%, SPD 17.2%, Greens 17.0%, Left 9.2%, AfD 9.6%, FDP 7.0%, others 2.5%. The polling period was between July 2017 and January 2018. The study is claiming representativity for its sub-samples, but considering the results of the federal election and polls from that period, it is clear that the published numbers are raw data and don't account for effects of social desirability etc. (which requires of course a lot of special sauce...)

[Former President tack50]

2025 German election: SPD drops out of parliament after falling below 5%, Merkel reelected with support from the Greens and the FDP, AfD still an untouchable party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So in about a month's time the AfD should be represented in all 16 state parliaments. Have any of the other smaller parties ever achieved that? I assume the FDP simultaneously held seats in the 11 state parliaments of the old federal republic, but I doubt anyone's been able to achieve this feat since 1990.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sitzverteilung_in_den_deutschen_Landesparlamenten

The Greens managed to do that from fall 2011 (after the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) till fall 2016 (after the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern).
It is even possible that the AfD will become the only party represented in each state parliament from next fall on...

[Tender Branson]

Politically, Germany right now is where Austria was between 2013 and 2016.

The last twitches of the so-called "Grand" Coalition, before everything blows up and everyone attacks each other in that government ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

Would FDP be willing to join a CSU government or will they coalition with a possible SPD-green coalition.

None of this has a majority.

The most likely scenario right now is that after their bad defeat, the CSU will chase out (= "in die Wüste schicken") Governor Söder and replace him with someone else (Ilse Aigner ?), who will then enter a coalition with the election winners - the Greens.

That, at least seems, to be the preferred option by the Bavarian voters; a coalition with the Free Voters would be welcomed, too.



And yes, I agree with you: Ilse Aigner is likely to be the fifth female governor in a German state.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

A further heavy setback for the SPD:

The Bavarian state broadcaster BR aired a TV duel. But instead of a duel between Governor Söder and SPD top-candidate Natascha Kohnen they chose Green top-candidate Ludwig Hartmann as Söder's duelist. That was definitely a punch in the gut for the SPD... 🥊🤢

[Tender Branson]

The Bavarian state broadcaster BR aired a TV duel. But instead of a duel between Governor Söder and SPD top-candidate Natascha Kohnen they chose Green top-candidate Ludwig Hartmann as Söder's duelist. That was definitely a punch in the gut for the SPD... 🥊🤢

I accidentally watched the final minutes of that debate yesterday evening (I get basically all of the German TV here of course) and there was a funny moment when the debate was about killing wolves when they get into residential areas and the Green Hartmann was speaking about it: he pointed to Söder while speaking about the so-called "Problem Wolf", implying that Söder is also one ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why is CSU-FW-FDP not possible?

It is. The CSU leadership will definitely prefer that option to a black-green coalition.