German Elections & Politics

[republicanbayer]

https://twitter.com/sciencefiles/status/1051557856904966146

So the voting blocs didn't change at all from 40 years ago. Compared to the 2013 the conservative parties gained 25 seats while the left parties have the same amount of seats as before. While the CSU lost 3% to the Greens (much less than I expected), each CSU, FW and AfD gained 3% from non-voters, which seems to be the main reason for their strong performance.

Regarding the CSU: Yes, it's a disastrous result for a party that is used to winning majorities. But considering the circumstances, it could have been far worse. In fact, the CSU did better than most people expected and lost only 1% compared to last year while the CDU lost 6-7% nationwide. Just imagine what they could have achieved if Merkel hadn't fought Seehofer so hard on some meaningless stuff.

It's also pretty funny that many CDU politicians now say that the AfD is losing support and that the real opponent are the Greens. That's why they want to stop the "right-wing talk" and focus on the centre. Do they even realize why the AfD underperformed in Bavaria???

[Hydera]

https://twitter.com/sciencefiles/status/1051557856904966146

So the voting blocs didn't change at all from 40 years ago. Compared to the 2013 the conservative parties gained 25 seats while the left parties have the same amount of seats as before. While the CSU lost 3% to the Greens (much less than I expected), each CSU, FW and AfD gained 3% from non-voters, which seems to be the main reason for their strong performance.

Regarding the CSU: Yes, it's a disastrous result for a party that is used to winning majorities. But considering the circumstances, it could have been far worse. In fact, the CSU did better than most people expected and lost only 1% compared to last year while the CDU lost 6-7% nationwide. Just imagine what they could have achieved if Merkel hadn't fought Seehofer so hard on some meaningless stuff.

It's also pretty funny that many CDU politicians now say that the AfD is losing support and that the real opponent are the Greens. That's why they want to stop the "right-wing talk" and focus on the centre. Do they even realize why the AfD underperformed in Bavaria???

Its funnier how people are talking about a sort of Leftwing surge in Bavaria when SPD+Green+Linke actually dropped from 31.3% in 2013 to 30.3%.  One leftwing party cannibalizing another while the total drops by 1% is not a success.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CSU strategy did not flop at all and in fact was an astounding success.

The CSU's performance in the last federal election was poor even within the context of that election and they usually perform better in state polls than federal ones. You can make the case that this election was not as bad for them as it could have been (though it's still notably worse than 2008 which at the time was bad enough to cause a crisis of identity and considerable internal turmoil) but anything more is really gilding the lily.

[palandio]

In my opinion the electoral campaign went not so well for the CSU. My reasoning:

After the federal election pollsters and analysts over-adjusted their CSU numbers, going by the federal election result and failing to differentiate between federal and regional election. After Markus Söder became PM on March 16, polls showed the CSU recovering at 41-44%, which in reality was probably more like 46%, which due to the electoral law could even have meant a close majority. From then everything went downhill. The smaller part of the blame goes to Markus Söder and his actionism, the bigger part of the blame to Seehofer's and Merkel's infighting. I'm not even sure if subconsciously Seehofer didn't want to harm Söder's prospects. The main beneficiaries, if the polls are to be believed at least in relative terms, were the Free Voters. They were basically an option for people who wanted CSU politics more or less, but didn't like the federal CDU/CSU/SPD drama.

Regarding the AfD result, if the voter movement analysis is to be believed at least to some degree, less than one fourth of the AfD voters come from the CSU. Apart from that its support is pretty much limited to a right-leaning protest potential that for historical reasons is bigger than e.g. in Lower Saxony, and that probably was difficult to reach from the begin. In that sense CSU and FW were quite effective in reaching those right-leaners that could actually be reached.

On the other hand while the Greens gained, and a part of that from the CSU, there was no net voter flow towards the parties that clearly stand to the left of the CSU on immigration (Greens, SPD, Linke). And therefore in my opinion it cannot be said that the CSU was punished for its relatively hard line on immigration more than it was rewarded, because otherwise there would have been a net voter flow.

[DavidB.]

In 2013, the CSU received 47.7% in Bavaria and, two weeks later, 49.5% in the general election (Union nationwide: 41.5%). In the 2017 general election, the CSU received 38.8% and the Union 32.9% on a nationwide level. The Union is currently polling at 26%. One would therefore expect the CSU to receive around one third of the vote, especially if you consider the fact that FW attract more voters on the state level, particularly when the Union finds itself in perilous times and FW doesn't carry any baggage from Berlin. Instead, the CSU received 37.2% of the vote, certainly above all reasonable expectations: the CSU has outperformed the Union by more than in 2013.

I think quite a few voters intended to vote FDP or AfD but came home for CSU, convinced by their campaign. Hence the difference between the trendline in the pre-election polls and the result. Perhaps these people were always going to vote for the CSU - but perhaps not. And I definitely think CSU's hardline stance on immigration may have been part of what it took to have these voters come home.

[President Johnson]

Why are FW so strong in Bavaria?  Is it related to Bavarian regionalism ?

Regionalism and good work on the local level by their mayors etc. of course plays a role here. And they are seen as CSU-light and not as conservative. Besides, they have a popular leader since 12 years, Hubert Aiwanger, who has the Bavarian beer tent mentality and charisma that is needed for a good election result there:

Especially regionalism, I'd say. The Free Voters also exist in Baden-Württemberg, but only locally. They don't run in state elections, but do very well at the municipal level. In several towns and cities, they're stronger than the CDU.

[palandio]

I think quite a few voters intended to vote FDP or AfD but came home for CSU, convinced by their campaign. Hence the difference between the trendline in the pre-election polls and the result. Perhaps these people were always going to vote for the CSU - but perhaps not. And I definitely think CSU's hardline stance on immigration may have been part of what it took to have these voters come home.

Yes, I think that, too. Some people understood that by not voting CSU they would have weakened the CSU in Berlin even more and that a vote for e.g. the AfD would be interpreted by CDU/CSU along the line "See, these people cannot be reached by going to the right, so let's go to the left".

[Lechasseur]

Right, slightly off topic, and this is a technicality, but I keep on seeing the word "Minister-Präsident" being translated as "Governor", but an elected governor is normally the product of a presidential system (although I do believe that Belgian provinces have governors, but the provinces are below the regions in Belgium). I think generally in English we just translate "Minister-Präsident" (as in the head of government of a German state or a Belgian region; I don't know if the term exists in Austria or elsewhere or not) as "Minister-President", but if you want to use a term that's used in English-speaking countries, I think a better translation would be "Premier" (I've always pronounced it as "premyer", not sure if that's the correct pronounciation or not), in other words the head of government, the Prime Minister of a sub-national parliamentary state or province. The Canadian provinces and the Australian states, for example, are lead by Premiers. In Britain; Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have a "First Minister", but the UK isn't a federal system and the expression is only used in the UK.

I'd personally just translate it as Minister-President myself. It doesn't really matter though, the most important thing is just to get the point across.

[Lechasseur]

I think quite a few voters intended to vote FDP or AfD but came home for CSU, convinced by their campaign. Hence the difference between the trendline in the pre-election polls and the result. Perhaps these people were always going to vote for the CSU - but perhaps not. And I definitely think CSU's hardline stance on immigration may have been part of what it took to have these voters come home.

Yes, I think that, too. Some people understood that by not voting CSU they would have weakened the CSU in Berlin even more and that a vote for e.g. the AfD would be interpreted by CDU/CSU along the line "See, these people cannot be reached by going to the right, so let's go to the left".

Agreed

[rob in cal]

   The vote breakdown by blue collar status was fascinating, showing the ongoing demise of support for left wing parties by their former (way back in the 19th and 20th centuries) working class backers. Do we have a vote breakdown by just income for Bavaria?

[EPG]

A CSU outperformed the polls
B CSU is superior to CDU because CDU-CSU is polling poorly nationally
If one believes A, shouldn't one be sceptical about B?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Right, slightly off topic, and this is a technicality, but I keep on seeing the word "Minister-Präsident" being translated as "Governor", but an elected governor is normally the product of a presidential system (although I do believe that Belgian provinces have governors, but the provinces are below the regions in Belgium). I think generally in English we just translate "Minister-Präsident" (as in the head of government of a German state or a Belgian region; I don't know if the term exists in Austria or elsewhere or not) as "Minister-President", but if you want to use a term that's used in English-speaking countries, I think a better translation would be "Premier" (I've always pronounced it as "premyer", not sure if that's the correct pronounciation or not), in other words the head of government, the Prime Minister of a sub-national parliamentary state or province. The Canadian provinces and the Australian states, for example, are lead by Premiers. In Britain; Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have a "First Minister", but the UK isn't a federal system and the expression is only used in the UK.

I'd personally just translate it as Minister-President myself. It doesn't really matter though, the most important thing is just to get the point across.

When I wrote about German politics for the first time i used the terms Minister-President and Land. But these words are too inconvenient and laborious.
As we are on a site for American politics, I think it's favorable to use Governor and state, so that everybody knows what you're talking about, especially when it comes to word combinations like statewide, countrywide, region-wide, on a state level, etc.

[palandio]

A CSU outperformed the polls
B CSU is superior to CDU because CDU-CSU is polling poorly nationally
If one believes A, shouldn't one be sceptical about B?

One should definitely be skeptical. On the other hand there are some reasons to believe that the underpolling was CSU-specific. But it is difficult to verify these ideas. Maybe the Hesse election in two weeks can shed slightly more light on this.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I'm still amazed at the relatively high outcome for the SPD in Upper Franconia.
I know that there are more Protestants living in Franconia than in Southern Bavaria, and I know that the North isn't nearly as wealthy than the South, but considering its close vicinity to Saxony it seems quite contradictory to the devastating weakness in the AfD stronghold.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There are three exit polls that should make the SPD reconsider their public perception (but unfortunately won't):

It's time for the SPD to renew themselves in opposition



Former SPD voters suggest that the SPD renew themselves in opposition, they say that the SPD lacks of a pivotal topic that sparks the people's interest, and they don't know what the SPD actuall stands for:



Blue collar workers:

[EPG]

If blue-collar workers want to support the AfD, it's not clear what SPD can do to win them back, if those specific blue-collar workers were ever SPD to begin with. Join in saying "Islam does not belong in Germany"? Yet in almost all countries, some blue-collar workers are traditional or radical conservatives.

[pilskonzept]

If blue-collar workers want to support the AfD, it's not clear what SPD can do to win them back, if those specific blue-collar workers were ever SPD to begin with. Join in saying "Islam does not belong in Germany"? Yet in almost all countries, some blue-collar workers are traditional or radical conservatives.

Is there such a thing as a radical conservative?

Promoting assimilation rather than multiculturalism, I guess.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If blue-collar workers want to support the AfD, it's not clear what SPD can do to win them back, if those specific blue-collar workers were ever SPD to begin with. Join in saying "Islam does not belong in Germany"? Yet in almost all countries, some blue-collar workers are traditional or radical conservatives.

Blue-collar workers, at least those living in cities, mostly live in quarters with a high share of immigrants. Thus, they know what problems migration entails. Whole boroughs huge Turk-Arab family clans keep things firmly in hand, so that the police doesn't dare enter those areas. There are schools where 90% of the children don't speak German and where German kids are bullied by migrants' kids because they don't believe in Allah. The mass sexual assaults in Cologne on New Year's Eve hadn't been reported on in the countrywide media until five days after.
Social Democrats and the Greens deny all those problems; in the last case the victims have even been compared to racists.
Furthermore, the SPD treacherously betrayed the blue-collar workers with the Blair-like "reforms". They abandoned their own clientele. Now they get to know how much the SPD cares for migrant and asylees with programs that are financed by the means of the workers' taxes. (99% of the SPD and Greens go to university (and study unprofitable arts) or work in jobs that are paid by people working in the free market and have never lived in majority-Muslim hoods.) Such behavior burns people up.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If blue-collar workers want to support the AfD, it's not clear what SPD can do to win them back, if those specific blue-collar workers were ever SPD to begin with. Join in saying "Islam does not belong in Germany"? Yet in almost all countries, some blue-collar workers are traditional or radical conservatives.

Is there such a thing as a radical conservative?

Promoting assimilation rather than multiculturalism, I guess.

Social Democrats need to learn that being pro-labor rights and pro-social welfare doesn't translate into being pro-multiculturalism and anti-patriotism.

[pilskonzept]

Social Democrats need to learn that being pro-labor rights and pro-social welfare doesn't translate into being pro-multiculturalism and anti-patriotism.

More like re-learn. To quote Matthias Beltz: "The proletarians haven't been waiting for us, they have been waiting for the end of the shift and for their retirement."

[Hydera]

If blue-collar workers want to support the AfD, it's not clear what SPD can do to win them back, if those specific blue-collar workers were ever SPD to begin with. Join in saying "Islam does not belong in Germany"? Yet in almost all countries, some blue-collar workers are traditional or radical conservatives.

Is there such a thing as a radical conservative?

Promoting assimilation rather than multiculturalism, I guess.

Social Democrats need to learn that being pro-labor rights and pro-social welfare doesn't translate into being pro-multiculturalism and anti-patriotism.

Social Democrats tend to over estimate how many voters would actually leave if they decided to switch their position on mass migration. Sure a lot of pro-mass migration voters might switch to further left parties. But if you compare Denmark to Norway. Because the social democrats in Denmark are closer to the right on immigration compared to Sweden. the total leftwing bloc is almost 50%/50% with that of the Right bloc. Compared to Sweden where the left bloc got 41%.

[pilskonzept]

I'm still amazed at the relatively high outcome for the SPD in Upper Franconia.
I know that there are more Protestants living in Franconia than in Southern Bavaria, and I know that the North isn't nearly as wealthy than the South, but considering its close vicinity to Saxony it seems quite contradictory to the devastating weakness in the AfD stronghold.

At the end of the day, the majority of AfD voters are former CDU/CSU voters. Everywhere. And that should not surprise given the leftward shift (on social issues) of both major parties.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I'm still amazed at the relatively high outcome for the SPD in Upper Franconia.
I know that there are more Protestants living in Franconia than in Southern Bavaria, and I know that the North isn't nearly as wealthy than the South, but considering its close vicinity to Saxony it seems quite contradictory to the devastating weakness in the AfD stronghold.

At the end of the day, the majority of AfD voters are former CDU/CSU voters. Everywhere. And that should not surprise given the leftward shift (on social issues) of both major parties.

I absolutely agree. The Greens may win over possible voters with unisex toilets and gender asterisks, the SPD puts possible voters off with those topics though.
I didn't say btw that disaffected former SPD voters flocked to the AfD in droves; many of them don't vote anymore.

Here is a great interactive flow diagram:

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/waehlerwanderung-bayern-101.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yesterday on Anne Will (I posted a pic of her in a different context ), one of the biggest political talk shows in Germany:

Lower Saxony's Social Democratic Interior Minister Boris Pistorius disparaged the AfD's election success by saying they are the real losers of the election. Kannste dir nicht ausdenken...