German Elections & Politics

[pilskonzept]

Latest ZDP poll on Hesse (comparsion to 2013 results)

CDU    26
Green  22
SPD    20
AfD     12
FDP      8
Linke    8

Note sure CDU-Green will make it past majority.  Of course if that is out then it will have to be Green-SPD-Linke. 

If this is the result then it's Traffic light or Jamaica. But as was said above me, if the SPD are below the greens, then Traffic light is almost an impossibly. Why would the SPD sign up to be a minor partner under the greens? Just makes their decline nationally look even worse.

But after 2011 Baden-Württemberg  election SPD did accept becoming the junior partner of the Greens since they had less seats.

Which will obviously be cited as evidence over why the SPD can't become minor partner to greens, since the Baden-Württemberg SPD is basically now dead.

They have also been minor partner to the Left in a red-red-green coalition in Thuringia since 2014. Wouldn't bet on it in Hesse, though, where SPD has led the state for a long time and still sees itself as the natural party of government.

[Tender Branson]

The CSU decided today to officially open coalition talks with the FW.

[Tender Branson]

New ARD / Infratest dimap poll for next Sunday's state election in Hessen:



Similar pattern as in Bayern.

---

The current CDU-Green state government gets a 55-42 approval rating.

93% of CDU-voters, 73% of FDP- and 64% of Green voters approve.

SPD-voters disapprove 39-60, Left- by 26-70 and AfD-voters by 12-82.

---

But for individual government party approval, it is different:

Voters disapprove of the CDU's government work by 42-53.

Voters approve of the Green's government work by 55-38.

---

Approval rating in Hessen of the federal CDU/CSU-SPD government:

22% approve
78% disapprove

CDU-voters: 33-67 disapprove (!)
SPD-voters: 26-74 disapprove (!)

Green-voters: 17-83 disapprove
Left-voters: 14-86 disapprove
FDP-voters: 13-87 disapprove
AfD-voters: 2-98 disapprove

---

"Angela Merkel is a good Chancellor."

48% Yes
50% No

[Tender Branson]

Based on these new numbers from ZDF and ARD, I would not be surprised if the Greens end up in a really close race with the CDU in the election ...

Maybe the CDU will pull it out by a few points, but if the SPD really implodes and the Left overpolls again - like usual - I could see the Greens at ~25% in Hessen this time. CDU only barely above, because the FDP will also do well there.

[Boobs]

Is a red-green-red government likely (or in this case, green-red-red)?

[DavidB.]

Is a red-green-red government likely (or in this case, green-red-red)?

No, as has been alluded to on this very same page.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Mark my words: Tarek Al-Wazir will become the new Governor of Hesse!

New ARD / Infratest dimap poll for next Sunday's state election in Hessen:



Similar pattern as in Bayern.

---

The current CDU-Green state government gets a 55-42 approval rating.

93% of CDU-voters, 73% of FDP- and 64% of Green voters approve.

SPD-voters disapprove 39-60, Left- by 26-70 and AfD-voters by 12-82.

---

But for individual government party approval, it is different:

Voters disapprove of the CDU's government work by 42-53.

Voters approve of the Green's government work by 55-38.

---

Approval rating in Hessen of the federal CDU/CSU-SPD government:

22% approve
78% disapprove

CDU-voters: 33-67 disapprove (!)
SPD-voters: 26-74 disapprove (!)

Green-voters: 17-83 disapprove
Left-voters: 14-86 disapprove
FDP-voters: 13-87 disapprove
AfD-voters: 2-98 disapprove

---

"Angela Merkel is a good Chancellor."

48% Yes
50% No

[Lord Halifax]

Mark my words: Tarek Al-Wazir will become the new Governor of Hesse!

Is he a practicing Muslim? If so, would he be the first Muslim Minister President?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's not count chickens.

[Lord Halifax]

Let's not count chickens.

I was counting Muslims.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Mark my words: Tarek Al-Wazir will become the new Governor of Hesse!

Is he a practicing Muslim? If so, would he be the first Muslim Minister President?

No, not at all. His father is a Yemenite, but he lived with his father in Yemen when he was 14 till 16 years old, but the rest of his youth he lived with his German mother.

But I just realized that he vacated his Landtag seat one year ago (while retaining his cabinet post as minister for economic affairs and lieutenant governor). And the Green top candidate is Environment Minister Priska Hinz. But Al-Wazir is running in his constituency Offenbach-Stadt again. I'm so confused now.

Tender, I need your help!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Federal poll:



Are you worried by the weakness of the big-tent parties?

[Beezer]

Oh boy.



I guess I can take some solace in the fact that "Kenya's" share of the vote hasn't changed much since the elections (62% in Sepember 2017, 61% now).

[Beezer]

So the left (or let's call them the "progressive/cosmopolitan" camp) is essentially where it was 5 years ago:

Progressives (Greens, SPD, Left Party)
2013: 42.7
2017: 38.6
Today: 44

Kenya coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens)
2013: 75.6
2017: 62.3
Today: 61

FDP + AfD
2013: 9.5
2017: 23.3
Today: 24

[DavidB.]

Germany is becoming more Dutch by the day.

[parochial boy]

Reckon the FDP did the Greens the biggest favour ever by breaking the Jamaica negotiations. German polling has literally become hillarious.

(on a side note, red-red-green seems to have gone from the 40-42% range to the 43-45% range over the last few weeks, which is nice to see)

[palandio]

There seems to have occurred a movement from the SPD to the Greens and a demobilization of conservative voters.

In Bavaria before the recent election red-red-green was in the 32.5-35% range, only to end up at 30.4%. The reason probably was a last-minute mobilization in favor of CSU and FW. In the rest of Germany there is no CSU and no relevant FW, but I could still immagine a similar effect.

[parochial boy]

Probably, yeah, I can imagine your traditional CDU voter is not exactly enamoured with the current political scene.

Although I'm a little suspicious of the "polling in situation X was out in this way, so it will be in situation Y too". That's part of why we all went into the Sweden and France elections presuming that SD and Le Pen were going to do better than the polling suggested. Granted, the changes in voting intention in Germany have probably been radical enough that it is by nature hard to poll, which could mean CDU getting final day surges as undecided voters return "home", but I wouldn't necessarily expect it.

[mgop]

germany is ready for green-red-red aka portugal coalition

[Hydera]

germany is ready for green-red-red aka portugal coalition

Nope, SPD was leading in the polls and then Schulz said he would make a Red-Red-Green coalition and he lost steam afterwards.

[Oryxslayer]

germany is ready for green-red-red aka portugal coalition

R2G hasn't had majority in federal polls since...well Schultzmentum? You might be confusing the federal polls with the Hesse Polls, where R2G might get a majority. But a R2G govt isn't really strange for provincial elections, it has already been formed many time in old East Germany. Whether or not it forms here is up to the politicians to decide, who right now might prefer different govts.

[Lord Halifax]

germany is ready for green-red-red aka portugal coalition

R2G hasn't had majority in federal polls since...well Schultzmentum? You might be confusing the federal polls with the Hesse Polls, where R2G might get a majority. But a R2G govt isn't really strange for provincial elections, it has already been formed many time in old East Germany. Whether or not it forms here is up to the politicians to decide, who right now might prefer different govts.

Sure, but Die Linke is more radical and a lot less pragmatic in the West. There has never been a R2G coalition in the former Bonn republic.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

germany is ready for green-red-red aka portugal coalition

R2G hasn't had majority in federal polls since...well Schultzmentum? You might be confusing the federal polls with the Hesse Polls, where R2G might get a majority. But a R2G govt isn't really strange for provincial elections, it has already been formed many time in old East Germany. Whether or not it forms here is up to the politicians to decide, who right now might prefer different govts.

Sure, but Die Linke is more radical and a lot less pragmatic in the West. There has never been a R2G coalition in the former Bonn republic.

That's technically correct, there was however a red-green minority coalition tolerated by the Left in NRW under Governor Kraft from 2010-2012, which obviously hasn't lasted long.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In case anyone is interested in statistics, here are some positive and negative records of the results German parties achieved:

CDU (worst results)

1      9.0    1951    Bremen
2    14.8    1959    Bremen
3    15.9    2015    Hamburg
4    17.6    2016    Berlin
5    18.0    1955    Bremen

SPD (worst results)

1      9.7    2018    Bavaria
2      9.8    2004    Saxony
3    10.4    2009    Saxony
4    10.6    2016    Saxony-Anhalt
5    10.7    1999    Saxony

Greens (best results)

1    30.3    2016    Baden-Württemberg
2    24.2    2011    Baden-Württemberg
3    22.5    2011    Bremen
4    17.6    2011    Berlin
5    17.5    2018    Bavaria

[Tender Branson]

Final Hessen poll before the Sunday state election:



CDU-SPD getting killed, Greens with a chance for 2nd or even 1st place ...