German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

There are so many reasons that present a far bigger roadblock to getting sh**t done than the length of the legislative term (for starters the role of the Bundesrat, whose powers should be severely curtailed while introducing real federalism to Germany). And the costs of holding an election are minute compared to the other crap we spend money on. So no, I'd rather keep the 4 year term or even decrease it to 3 (while having 5 year terms in state elections) which might make it more likely that a government has a majority in the Bundesrat as well (after each federal election, the governing coalitions tends to do poorly in the states...maybe a 3 year term would then ensure that the unpopular coalition is ousted with the new government enjoying a governing majority in the upper chamber as well...not sure if I've thought all of this through properly).

[Beezer]

Wait a couple of years, then get elected to the EP. I'm sure Cohn-Bendit wouldn't mind having Edathy in his caucus.

[Beezer]

Nobody cares about the views of FDP supporters anymore.

[Beezer]

Last poll ahead of this weekend's state elections in Brandenburg and Thuringia:

BB:



TH:

[Beezer]

Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

Back then they didn't have a natural enemy in the AfD though. Moreover, nobody is talking about the FDP anymore while the political class is incessantly discussing the AfD-phenomenon, giving the latter added legitimacy.

[Beezer]

Let's not forget that Hamburg gave Richter Gnadenlos almost 20 percent of the vote not too long ago. The East German campaign also wasn't about the euro but instead had more of a law and order flavor to it.

[Beezer]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

Unless they implode Pirates style.

The Pirates were a fad, mainly supported by young voters. The AfD on the other hand - as mentioned a couple of posts above - fills a void that's been left by both the CDU and FDP. Moreover it's full of season political veterans who won't make the same mistakes that the Pirates committed. I also think the party will now become a more attractive option for more moderate disillusioned conservative voters who up until now might have been put off by the general image of the AfD as some sort of lunatic fringe party. After winning around 10% of the vote in 3 successive state elections it's obvious to everyone that this isn't a far-right Neo-Nazi outfit so those more moderate activists might give the party a try, in the process moving its center of gravity even further away from the right-wing populist fringe.

[Beezer]

But I don't see how Schill's election result from 2001 is any useful indicator here. Their chances are as good there as in any other West German state.

My post was in response to someone who argued that the AfD won't be all that successful in Hamburg. The primary point I was trying to convey is that even in a relatively affluent left-leaning city state like Hamburg, right-wing populist parties can do well...extremely well actually. Will the AfD repeat Schill's result and get 20%? Probably not. But they should have a pretty decent shot at making it into parliament considering that in the past Hamburgers have shown their affinity for a "law and order" party.

BTW, since you mentioned 9/11...Schill's party was polling at around 15% well before Atta and his pals flew into the WTC.

[Beezer]

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

[Beezer]

And he's been elected...

[Beezer]

2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?

All down to the new logo. The Freie Demokraten are also at 4% in the latest Infratest dimap poll for the first time in half a year.

[Beezer]

Interesting poll on where Germans place the parties on an ideological line. It illustrates the leftward move of the CDU/CSU which has exposed the party's right flank and has in turn offered a vast tract for the AfD to harvest:



Detailed picture from the most recent poll:



Lower line indicates where "AfD-supports see themselves" / "their party" and where the general public places the AfD on the left to right continuum:

If you speak Deutsch check out:

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/uploads/media/LinksRechts2014_AfD.pdf

[Beezer]

So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.

[Beezer]

The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html

Both countries have vastly different electorates and electoral systems so I doubt an American can really bring a lot to the table besides "do more social media stuff." Or maybe I'm just misinterpreting his role as campaign manager...

[Beezer]

FDP @ 5%!

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[Beezer]

Will be interesting to see if AfD once again fares better than they do in the polls...given this is a western state, could there be more of a shy Tory effect than what we saw in the 3 eastern state elections last year?

[Beezer]

This is the birthplace of the Schill-Party though... (not that I think the AfD will come anywhere close to 10%).

[Beezer]

Turnout @ 2pm: 38.5% (2011: 43.2%).

http://www.hamburg.de/buergerschaftswahl/4450380/wahlbeteiligung/

[Beezer]

Any link to results as they come in?

Should be this site: http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen/wahlen-in-hamburg/

[Beezer]

Avg. of the election predictions made over at Wahlrecht.de

http://www.wahlrecht.de/wahltippspiele/hamburg-2015/ausgabe.html

SPD: 45.9
CDU: 19.0
Gr: 11.3
FDP: 5.7
Left: 8.0
AfD: 5.7

[Beezer]

Turnout @ 5pm: 52.3 % (2011: 58.5%, note that the eventual turnout stood at 57.3% so the 2011 #s overestimated turnout).

[Beezer]

FDP:7, AfD: 5.2

[Beezer]

FDP voter movement:

[Beezer]

First "Hochrechnung" won't be available until 7:15-7:30 local time because of Hamburg's ridiculous 10 vote electoral system.

[Beezer]

More exit poll results:

- The economy and personality (Scholz) were big reasons for the huge SPD win.
- 23% of all Hamburgers (lol) think the city has too much refugees, however, 59% of all AfD voters think that.

For comparison: These were the 2013 German federal election results in Hamburg:


The SPD only narrowly beat the CDU by 0,2% in one of their biggest strongholds (that they even managed to lose in 2009). Right now, they are defeating the CDU by 30 points. THAT is what I call an improvement.

Federal elections are a different animal though (kind of like the midterms and presidential elections). The SPD has 9 different state premiers compared to the CDU's five. Yet the SPD is trailing the CDU by close to 20 points at the national level.