German Elections & Politics

[ERvND]

SPD members, on the other hand, don't support a Grand coalition, at least as far as I can tell.

If the party members have the final say, as promised, this will cause huge problems for the leadership. In case the coalition proposal is dismissed, the leaders will of course have to resign and the party will be in disarray. If it's narrowly approved, this will also weaken the party and the new government as a whole. An overwhelming vote in favour of a new Grand coalition, though, is something I really can't imagine.

So I wonder what this membership survey is all about. From a tactical point of view, it's absolute rubbish. 

[ERvND]

Also:

Local elections in Bavaria (March), Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia (May)

[ERvND]

But yeah, barring a very surprising turn of events, it's gonna be a Grand coalition.

The only potential hurdle right now is the SPD members poll.

[ERvND]

Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.

[ERvND]

The SPD vote has started.

Despite being very sceptical at first, I voted in favour of the grand coalition.

Here is why: As I have stated on numerous occasions, the very concept of Social Democracy, and therefore the SPD, is doomed. This has almost nothing to do with current events and very much with general demographic and socio-economic trends.

Hence, both possible results of the vote will have the same consequences: If the party votes against the coalition, Merkel will induce new elections, resulting in an absolute majority for the CDU/CSU and an epic downfall for the SPD. If they form a grand coalition, on the other hand, the same will happen in 2017 that already happend in 2009 (to the SPD) and 2013 (to the FDP): Merkel's coalition "partner" will be slaughtered at the polls.

So, the results will be the same anyway - a massive collapse in the next elections. Basically, you only have to choose when it will happen. If that's the case, the SPD might as well cling to power for four final years, effectively delaying the party's demise for this period of time. That's still a bleak perspective, but better than nothing.

[ERvND]

Here is why: As I have stated on numerous occasions, the very concept of Social Democracy, and therefore the SPD, is doomed. This has almost nothing to do with current events and very much with general demographic and socio-economic trends.... 
So, the results will be the same anyway - a massive collapse in the next elections . Basically, you only have to choose when it will happen. If that's the case, the SPD might as well cling to power for four final years, effectively delaying the party's demise for this period of time. That's still a bleak perspective, but better than nothing.

Do your fellow party members that you've spoken to also acknowledge this or are many too deluded?

In this situation, one might expect a great extent of delusion, but interestingly enough, most party members I have spoken to agree with me and acknowledge that the current crisis of Social Democracy is not a temporary, but a fundamental phenomenon.

Some are very emotional about the impending development, but a pragmatic point of view prevails. Of course, most party members are over 65 years old (the SPD membership is already disproportionally old), so it's comprehensible that they have no hope to stop the overall trend, when at the same time they simply carry on and anticipate they won't live long enough to see the end of the party.  

[ERvND]

When referring to personal encounters with fellow party members, I am of course "locally biased". It's a fact that where I live - Bavaria - the erosion of the party is already far advanced. There are towns of more than 10,000 people where the local chapter consists of five to ten members, all over the age of 65. It's entirely obvious that in ten to fifteen years' time, the SPD will have vanished outside the big cities.

The CSU, in contrast, is stronger than ever. They also lose members, but at a slower rate; moreover, their membership is younger and more diverse. Above all, they have made it very clear that they need no centre-left rival at all, as they provide room for almost every demographic and social group themselves.

I'm aware that all of this is only anecdotal evidence. If you look around, however, you'll discern the same pattern all over Germany, if not Europe.

The main problem - here and everywhere - is really of a sociological nature. There is simply no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party. Social Democracy has fulfilled its tasks, hereby becoming superfluous. I know there is always the possibility of changes in the future, and I won't deny the trend might reverse some day. But right now, I simply see no starting point for such a shift.

[ERvND]

Sachsen/uniQma

49% CDU
17% SPD
15% Left
  6% Greens
  6% AfD
  2% FDP
  2% Pirates
  1% NPD
  2% Others

The pollster aside, this poll is not entirely implausible. There are some oddities, however.

CDU at 49% is absolutely believable, if the FDP collapse comes true.

SPD at 17% would be a shocking result. I found this to be absolutely incredible, but it's backed up by some older polls that had them at 15-16%. This would equal a vote increase of ca. 50%. It becomes more plausible when you look at the Linke prediction of 15%, however.

Greens and AfD at 6% are reasonable. If it excels at the Europe elections in May, the AfD might get even stronger.

Of course they have to get their votes from somewhere, and if we follow this scenario, it's the FDP. Still, the FDP at only 2% is not realistic. Firstly, Saxony is a traditional FDP stronghold, secondly, Grand coalition politics will have an impact until August, resulting in middle-class voters reverting from the CDU.

Also, NPD at 1% is too optimistic by far. They will have a hard time entering the Landtag this year, but I can hardly imagine them below 3%.

[ERvND]

Other notable results:

Nuremberg: Ulrich Maly (SPD) wins by 67% and is now expected to be the party's frontrunner in the next state elections.

Augsburg: The CSU mayor wins in the first round, despite longstanding quarrels within his city government.

Regensburg: The SPD candidate reaches 49,97%, with only 18 vtes missing to avoid a runoff.

Ingolstadt: The CSU defends its stronghold easily.

Fürth: The SPD candidate wins by 73%.

Erlangen: The long-term CSU mayor is forced into a runoff against the SPD candidate.


Despite some successes in bigger cities, the SPD loses overall, especially in rural areas, where it's now only the third or fourth power in some places.