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palandio
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« on: October 14, 2013, 04:00:25 pm »

In Munich much of the AfD voting pattern seems to be random noise. I will try to explain what I mean:
Non-postal precincts had on average 557 active voters. The average of the AfD in non-postal precincts was 5.0% (including postal votes it was 4.5%). So let's assume a precincts of 557 and every voter votes AfD with a probability of 5.0%. Then the expectation would be 27.85 votes, but only ca. half of the time would the result lie in the bracket 25 - 31. And if we would consider family members and neighbors influencing each other, the bracket would be even wider.
In reality half of the non-postal precinct results lie in the bracket 4.2%-5.9%, which is a bit more than we had pure random noise distrubution, but still...

So, what remains?
* Inner-city districts, which mostly are Green strongholds, have relatively weak AfD results: Ludwigsvorstadt-Isarvorstadt at 3.3% (compared to 4.5%), Schwanthalerhöhe at 3.4%, Au-Haidhausen at 3.6% etc.
* On the other hand the district with the highest AfD percentage (5.2%) is Bogenhausen, many other districts are at 5.1% or 5.0%, but the outer districts are much more heterogenous, so we would need to look on these in detail
* The are is some detached housing, but normally only dispersed among other individual housing. When it comes to the difference between the more posh individual housing quarters (parts of Bogenhausen, Harlaching, Solln, Obermenzing, Gern, Waldtrudering etc.) and the more middle-class quarters, there are some differences, but then you find so many counterexamples...
* There seems to be a tendence towards the AfD in some peripheral and semi-peripheral not-so-well-off quarters, but these are not individual housing, but instead they often look like Frankfurt's SPD strongholds.
* Northern Bogenhausen is a bit less posh than Western Bogenhausen and has higher AfD results, though Bogenhausen as a whole was also an FDP stronghold in 2009.

It's really a mess, particularly compared to other parties of the same size (FDP, Linke) or smaller parties (Pirates, Nazis), which have clearer patterns.
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palandio
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2013, 02:38:58 pm »

@ Franknburger: Good observations. It's difficult though to differenciate between two effects:
1) Last-minute swings
2) Different political orientation of mail-voters and non-mail-voters.
For example in Munich the CSU generally overperforms among mail-voters. More so in 2009 (mail-voters 35.4%, non-mail-voters 30.3%), because there might have been a last-minute swing to the FDP. Less so in 2013 (mail-voters 38.8%, non-mail-voters 37.1%), likely because of a small last-minute swing towards the CSU.
On the other hand the SPD always overperforms among non-mail-voters. In 2009: 20.7% vs. 16.7%. In 2013: 25.5% vs. 21.5%.
The Greens in 2009 had 17.8% among mail-voters and 17.4% among non-mail-voters. In 2013: 15.2% vs. 13.3%, sign of a last-minute swing away from them.
The Linke in 2009 had 5.3% among mail-voters, but 7.5% among non-mail-voters. In 2013: 3.5% vs. 5.3%. Maybe there was a slight last-minute swing towards them both times, but the general tendence seems clear.
The FDP in 2009 had 18.4% vs. 17.1%. In 2013: 8.9% vs. 6.9%, which is a much wider difference, particularly in relative terms.
AfD 2013: 3.7% vs. 5.0%.

So in Munich I would say:
1) Small last-minute swings away from Greens, FDP, towards CSU, AfD, maybe Linke.
2) Generally CSU, FDP and Greens tend to do better among mail-voters, SPD, Linke and AfD worse. This effect can be different in other areas, for example in rural regions or in the East.
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palandio
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2013, 03:32:03 pm »
« Edited: October 15, 2013, 03:37:43 pm by palandio »

@ Minion of Midas: Probably there are similar patterns in Munich. And yes, much is about class.
I'm posting now a map of turnout in Munich precincts. The precinct map is based on a 2009 map from Munich's statistical office. The coloring is my own. I hope I don't violate any copyright?
Img


I would like to do either an SPD+Greens+Linke+MLPD map or an CSU+FDP map of Munich. Any preferences?
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palandio
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2013, 06:30:29 am »

Img
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palandio
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2013, 04:37:49 pm »

Don't forget "the crisis" as a key electoral issue. The federal election has been a plebiscite for Merkel's and Schäuble's solutions to the Euro crisis (which are totally wrong IMO, but I don't count). SPD and Greens were very weak on this issue.
You see that SPD and Greens did win in Lower Saxony and up to a certain degree also in Hesse, Bavaria was bad, but maybe only a return to the mean. SPD and Greens are structurally not in such a bad position.
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palandio
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« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2013, 06:08:51 pm »

... They have gerrymandered the electoral districts in their favor, too...
Is this true for Saxony? I took at look at Leipzig and Chemnitz and what I saw was the following:
* Two electoral districts in the whole of Saxony were won by the Left party, one in Western Leipzig, one in Southern Chemnitz. Both are composed mainly by Plattenbau housing estates, in both the size of the voting population is below average due to population losses in the last 23 years. In both the CDU got the most proportional votes. All in all this is hardly an example for packing.
* I don't see examples of cracking. Western Leipzig and Southern Chemnitz are as dark-red as you can get in Saxony and even they are toss-ups. And SPD and Greens are just too week to play a role other than taking away FPTP votes from CDU and Left Party.
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palandio
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« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2014, 07:48:59 am »

In spring local elections will take place in many cities and towns of Germany:

16 March: Bavaria (for example Munich and Nuremberg)
30 March: Run-offs in Bavaria
25 May: North Rhine-Westfalia, Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Pomerania

In Munich all parties and groups that are represented in the city council at the moment will file lists again:

SPD (33 seats at the moment), CSU (22), Greens (11), FDP (4), Left (3), Free Voters (3), Pink List [LGBT] (1), ÖDP [Ecological Democratic Party] (1), Bavaria Party (1), Citizens' Initiative Foreigner Stop [NPD, neo-nazi] (1).
In the last election only one Free Voters candidate had been elected, but one CSU and one FDP member crossed the floor.
Additionally the following groups have successfully filed lists:
AfD [euro-sceptics that got 4.8% in the last federal election], Pirate Party, The Liberty [islamophobes], Electoral Group HUT [humanistic-independent-tolerant].
These groups failed to reach 1000 signatures: Young List, Animal Welfare, Party of Reason ["Libertarians"] and The Violets [Spiritual Politics]

All groups that have successfully filed lists, will also run a mayor candidate, with the exception of Pink List and Pirate Party. Christian Ude (SPD), mayor and very popular for 21 years, has reached the age limit, will resign and go to Mykonos. The most prominent candidates are:
Dieter Reiter (SPD), who will try to defend the mayor post for his party,
Josef Schmid (CSU), who ran in 2008 but had no chance against Ude,
Sabine Nallinger (Greens).
This open seat race will be much more contested than the 1999, 2002 and 2008 elections.
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palandio
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2014, 08:43:31 am »

Merkel has declared her full confidence in Gabriel. Those who have been following German politics closely for the last few years probably know what the declaration of full confidence by Merkel means. :-p (Every minister with full confidence had to resign soon after.)
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palandio
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« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2014, 02:33:15 pm »

In my eyes the Munich CSU poster campaign has been quite intelligent, attacking the SPD-Green government on crucial topics (housing etc.). Nevertheless the local CSU chapter is still not too popular. They will have difficulties to win in the run-off.

My prediction:
CSU 33.0% (from 27.7%)
SPD 32.5% (from 39.8%)
Greens 13.0% (from 13.0%)
AfD 3.5% (new)
FDP 3.0% (from 6.8%)
Left 3.0% (from 3.7%)
Free Voters 2.0% (from 1.6%)
Pirates 2.0% (new)
Pink List 1.5% (from 1.9%)
Ecological Democratic Party 1.5% (from 1.7%)
Bavaria Party 1.5% (from 1.5%)
HUT 1.5% (new)
Citizens' Initiative Foreigner Stop 1.0% (from 1.4%)
The Liberty 1.0% (new)

Mayor, first round:
Reiter, SPD 38.0%
Schmid, CSU 33.0%
Nallinger, Greens 15.0%
Waechter, AfD 3.0%
Mattar, FDP 2.0%
Wolf, Left 2.0%
Altmann, Free Voters 1.5%
Zeilnhofer-Rath, HUT 1.5%
Ruff, Eco-Dems 1.0%
Muenzinger, BP 1.0%
Richter, Foreigner Stop 1.0%
Stuerzenberger, Liberty 1.0%

Run-off:
Reiter 55.0%, Schmid 45.0%.
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palandio
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« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2014, 11:54:42 am »

Local elections are highly influenced by local issues. Popular incumbents can win by wide margins even if they don't belong to the natural majority party. Retiring Munich mayor Christian Ude (SPD) rightfully said "The first election is the most difficult one" when commenting on the first-round result of Dieter Reiter (SPD). In my eyes the heavy SPD losses in Munich are kind of a reversal to the mean. (My predictions turned out to be not so far off, after all...)

Munich results, mayor:
Reiter, SPD 40.4%
Schmid, CSU 36.7%
Nallinger, Greens 14.7%
Mattar, FDP 1.4%
Waechter, AfD 1.2%
Wolf, Left 1.2%
Altmann, Free Voters 1.1%
Ruff, Eco-Dems 1.1%
Zeilnhofer-Rath, HUT 0.9%
Muenzinger, BP 0.5%
Stuerzenberger, Liberty 0.5%
Richter, Foreigner Stop 0.4%

Run-off between Reiter and Schmid on 30 March.


City council:
CSU 32.6% (from 27.7%), 26 seats
SPD 30.8% (from 39.8%), 25 seats
Greens 16.6% (from 13.0%), 13 seats
FDP 3.4% (from 6.8%), 3 seats
Free Voters 2.7% (from 1.6%), 2 seats
AfD 2.5% (new), 2 seats
Ecological Democratic Party 2.5% (from 1.7%), 2 seats
Left 2.4% (from 3.7%), 2 seats
Pink List 1.9% (from 1.9%), 1 seat
HUT 1.3% (new), 1 seat
Pirates 1.2% (new), 1 seat
Bavaria Party 0.9% (from 1.5%), 1 seat
Citizens' Initiative Foreigner Stop 0.7% (from 1.4%), 1 seat
The Liberty 0.6% (new), no seat

SPD + Greens + Pink List: 39 seats, total seats: 80
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palandio
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« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2014, 03:37:55 pm »

I predict Reiter to win by 54-46.
In the case Reiter wins there are several main possibilities:
1) SPD+Greens+Pink+ÖDP, either as a formal coalition or as some kind of working agreement.
(In theory SPD+Greens+Pink+1 councilor would be enough, because the mayor is tie-breaker.)
2) SPD+CSU.
3) No coalition, minority government, changing alliances. The normal case in many smaller cities and towns.
In the case Schmid wins:
1) CSU+SPD.
2) CSU+Greens+1 councilor (again the ÖDP might come into mind, but also FDP etc.)
3) No formal coalition.

@ERvND: You're right that the SPD trend in many rural areas is still negative. The CSU has not been able to gain much from this. The winners are local outfits and smaller parties.
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palandio
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2014, 06:20:19 am »

The SPD has gained the mayor position in Regensburg and Erlangen.

On the other hand SPD candidates had bad luck in the counties of Dachau (49.8%), Traunstein (49%), Schwandorf (49%) and Hof (48%).

For the first time there will be two Green Landräte in Miltenberg (Lower Franconia) and Miesbach (Upper Bavaria). Miesbach has become known in the last weeks for the CSU Landrat Jakob Kreidel who was involved in several scandals including a birthday party for 100 thousand €, paid for by the local Sparkasse (municipal bank). Otherwise the county of Miesbach is known for its traditional costumes, mountains, rural conservatism and the Valley of the Rich (Tegernsee valley). To me personally the Green win in Miesbach came as a surprise.
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palandio
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2014, 09:38:02 am »

Overall these elections should make all major parties think about certain issues:

CSU:
- Lost even more mayor posts in the cities and becomes an increasingly less urban party.
- Their proportional vote share for the Kreistage was even lower than their record low in 2008.
- Despite Munich being a toss-up in every federal and regional election with CSU candidates winning almost all constituencies, their local Munich chapter remain an incompetent bunch of losers unable to gain from problems like the heated housing market.

SPD:
- Their proportional vote share fell by 2% and is now even lower than their record low in 2008.
- In many parts of rural Bavaria they are now only one of several minor parties like the Greens, Free Voters, Eco-Dems and unaffiliated voter groups.
- SPD candidates for the mayor or Landrat positions are still able to win (or almost win) in places like Dingolfing-Landau, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, but not because they are SPD candidates, it all depends on local factors and personal popularity.

Greens:
- What do Green local politicians have that their federal elite lacks?
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palandio
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« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2014, 12:31:06 pm »

Why do you think that you can infer more from European election polls than from federal election polls about state elections? To me that seems counter-intuitive. In European election polls the AfD is consistently polling ca. 1-2% more than in federal election polls.
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palandio
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2014, 03:15:48 pm »

...
I also think the party will now become a more attractive option for more moderate disillusioned conservative voters who up until now might have been put off by the general image of the AfD as some sort of lunatic fringe party. After winning around 10% of the vote in 3 successive state elections it's obvious to everyone that this isn't a far-right Neo-Nazi outfit so those more moderate activists might give the party a try, in the process moving its center of gravity even further away from the right-wing populist fringe.
My perception is quite different. Winning 10% or not does not prove anything regarding Neo-Nazi or not. (I think they are not Neo-Nazis, except for maybe some single members.)
The 2013 AfD federal campaign was mainly about being anti-Euro to the extent that many called them a single issue party. Other proposals were p.e. allowing asylum seekers to work and so on, only (seemingly) moderate proposals, to make the AfD seem like a socially acceptable, reasonable choice.
Since then a broader part of their program has become visible (which of course was already there last year). The AfD has become a platform for all kinds of reactionaries, ultra-conservative economists and the Christian Right.
The regional chapters in the East, e.g. Saxony, are the most right-leaning ones. Being the only ones with parliamentary representation for the moment (except for the EP), they will gain even more public attention and influence within the party.
I do not think that this will necessarily harm the AfD's prospects. There is enough space for a right-wing reactionary party in Germany, though I still wonder whether all of their voters understand the AfD's economic agenda and if they understood, whether they would still vote AfD.
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palandio
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2014, 08:38:25 am »

Actually the current left/right proportions in Germany are not so much a result of centrist voters breaking to the CDU/CSU. They are at least as much the result of a massive voter demobilization on the left. Note that in 2002 CDU+CSU+FDP had 22 million votes and that this was less than SPD+Greens. Since then CDU+CSU+FDP have gone down to 20 million votes and yet SPD+Greens is not a realistic option on the federal level anymore.

(The AfD of course drains voters not only from FDP, CDU and CSU, but also from Left and SPD and therefore the AfD has shifted the political  landscape slightly to the right. I wouldn't call these swing voters centrists though.)
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palandio
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2014, 08:59:05 am »

Interesting findings. Keep in mind that the numbers depend on the questions they asked and how many you had to get right to become a xenophobe/antisemite. Comparisons between parties and general tendencies in time are a bit more robust, though also the former depend on the questions.

P.S.: My own English is not impeccable and I do not like being a grammar nazi, but the way you are using the word therefor is not only incorrect, but also highly deceptive. Please use something like instead instead.
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palandio
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2015, 12:29:56 pm »

Others were at 9.1% in Bavaria in the 2013 federal election, so that numbers hasn't changed at all. The "other" parties were:

2.7% Free Voters (municipalism, rural interests, "not a party", soft euro-scepticism)
1.9% Pirate Party
1.0% Ecological Democratic Party (conservative environmentalists)
0.9% Bavaria Party (separatists, imho quite right-leaning)
0.9% NPD (nazis)
0.7% Animal Welfare Party
0.4% Republicans (a far-right party that was successful about 20-30 years ago and has been steadily declining since then)
0.2% Women
0.1% The Violets ("For spiritual politics")
0.1% Party of Reason (Right-wing libertarians)
0.1% Pro Germany (far-right, mainly based in North Rhine Westphalia)
0.0% Alliance 21/ Pensioneers' Party
0.0% Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany
0.0% Citizens' Rights Movement Solidarity (LaRouche followers)
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palandio
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2015, 03:30:11 pm »

Average of the six most recent polls (Allensbach 10/20, Forsa 10/21, FGW 10/23, Infratest dimap 10/23, Emnid 10/24, INSA 10/27):

CDU/CSU 37.3% (-4.2% compared to the 2013 federal election)
SPD 24.9% (-0.8%)
Left 9.4% (+0.8%)
Greens 10.4% (+2.0%)
FDP 4.8% (no change)
AfD 7.3% (+2.6%)
Others 5.8% (-0.4%)

CDU/CSU+SPD 62.2% (24/69 federal council seats by 2015)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP 52.5% (11/69)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD 49.4% (6/69 [Bavaria lol])
CDU/CSU+Greens 47.7% (11/69)
=== Majority (FDP in): 47.1%+ ===
SPD+Greens+Left 44.7% (40/69 [including Danes])
=== Majority (FDP out): 44.7%+ ===
CDU/CSU+AfD 44.6% (6/69)
CDU/CSU+FDP 42.1% (6/69)
SPD+Greens+FDP 40.1% (32/69 [including Danes])

Jamaica could be dangerous for all involved parties. Plus it is far from a (not necessary, but useful) majority in the federal council. Rhineland-Palatinate might change, Baden-Württemberg might change, but if so then quite likely from Green-Red to GroKo, which would still make the SPD necessary in the federal council.

Tomorrow we will have a new Forsa poll. Forsa is often the pollster that is most interested in producing headlines, so let's see!
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palandio
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2015, 04:59:18 pm »

But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

IIRC, proportional seats are allocated to ensure that the total number of seats is proportional, not just the non-FPTP seats. They even go so far as to add seats to the legislature to ensure proportionality.

CDU/CSU could technically lose every FPTP seat and still get their fair share of seats.

1. CSU currently gets more seats than it "should" by sweeping the FPTP seats in Bavaria, and CDU isn't punished for that in the PR seats because they're separate parties.

2. The minor parties that never win FPTP seats (Grüne, Linke*, FDP and AfD if they get in) are also compensated out of the PR seats pool, leaving fewer PR seats left to compensate CDU/CSU.

*Linke does win a couple in former East Germany, I believe.

No, you're referring to the pre-2013 law. Both 1. and 2. don't apply anymore. Since 2013 seats are distributed completely proportionally (among parties that get in).
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palandio
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« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2015, 02:57:03 pm »

3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.
From what I see, the DDR legacy is not the main problem anymore.
SPD and Greens have a bigger problem with many of those that entered the Linke in 2005-2008 for various reasons.
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palandio
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« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2015, 08:18:27 am »

Average of the last five polls (Emnid 11/14, FGW 11/13, Forsa 11/11, INSA 11/9, Infratest dimap 11/5):

CDU/CSU 37.0% (-4.5% compared to 2013 federal election)
SPD 24.8% (-0.9%)
Left 9.2% (+0.6%)
Greens 10.0% (+1.6%)
FDP 5.0% (+0.2%)
AfD 8.2% (+3.5%)
Others 5.8% (-0.4%)
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palandio
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« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2015, 05:54:54 pm »

In a referendum in Hamburg 51.6% has voted against applying for the 2024 Olympic Summer Games. Another electoral defeat for big sports organizations and big sports events after Oslo and Munich.
Link: http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen/wahlen-in-hamburg/volksentscheide/2015/
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palandio
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« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2016, 03:27:29 pm »

INSA Baden-Württemberg poll (change since last INSA poll from October):

CDU 35 % (-5)
GRÜ 29 % (+5)
SPD 13 % (-3)
AfD 11,5 % (+3.5)
FDP 6,5 % (+1.5)
Left 2.5% (-2.5) (fixed that for you, hope you won't mind)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Might not even be enough for a classic grand coalition.
A "grand coalition" with the SPD at ca. 13% and in third (or maybe even fourth) place sounds strange. I would rather call it black-red. Black-green would be the real grand coalition.
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palandio
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« Reply #24 on: January 24, 2016, 05:12:20 am »

Numbers from the new federal Emnid poll:
CDU/CSU 40% among women, 32% among men (more extreme than usually, but not too far from normal, old women have been the strongest CDU/CSU group by far for years)
SPD 30% among women, 20% among men (new, in the past the German social democrats have had a relatively even support, often being slightly stronger with men)
AfD 2% among women, 17% among men (LOL, the most extreme gender balance I've ever seen, not even the FPÖ comes close...)

I didn't find numbers for the other parties, but they should add up to ca. 28% among women and ca. 31% among men. Probably the Greens are much stronger with women, while FDP, small parties and the Left should be stronger among men.

In the past there was rarely an extreme gender divide in voting behaviour, in particular on the left-right axis. Yes, CDU/CSU and Greens were stronger among women and most other parties slightly stronger among men, but nothing like the extreme divide seen in some other countries or now in Germany.
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