German Elections & Politics

[Sozialliberal]

That '70s Party

The party Neue Liberale (New Liberal) was founded last September. The initiators were members of the FDP state party of Hamburg who were annoyed at the quarrels within the state party. Besides the FDP, large shares of the New Liberal founding members came also from the Greens, the Pirates and the SPD.

The New Liberal seeks to revive the spirit of the 1970s FDP. They view the decade as "a time when politics was still passionate and progressive, and liberals were regarded as respectable and education-oriented individualists". In contrast to today's FDP, the New Liberals speak a lot about "fighting social injustice". However, it should be noted that Sylvia Canel, one of the two federal chairpeople of the New Liberal, was a member of the economic liberal FDP tendency "Liberaler Aufbruch".

Back in the 1970s, the FDP adopted social liberalism as its party ideology, and formed coalitions with the SPD. However in 1982, the FDP economics minister Lambsdorff handed in a policy paper, which was inspired by Thatcher and Reagan. That was seen as a clear sign of the decline of the social liberal current within the FDP.

The FDP social liberals didn't agree on a joint proceeding after the realignment of their party. Some switched to the SPD (e.g. Günter Verheugen, Ingrid Matthäus-Maier). Some remained in the FDP (e.g. Gerhart Baum, Burkhard Hirsch). Some tried to establish a new party, the Liberal Democrats (Liberale Demokraten), which exists to this day but has never won seats in an election above the district or municipal level. Some left the FDP without joining another party (e.g. Helga Schuchardt). That led to the fragmentation of social liberalism in Germany.

Hamburg should be a good place for a social liberal party for several reasons (urban, university city, centre of trade and commerce, long history of the citizenry). The Hamburg New Liberals chose Isabel Wiest (aged 38, formerly Greens) and Christian Schiller (aged 29, formerly FDP) as their top candidates.

So the Neue Liberals are social liberals eh? Well good luck to them, but I do wonder whether the niche they want to fill is already occupied by the Greens...

It is disputed how liberal the Greens actually are. Some see them as know-alls who want to stipulate how people should live their lives, whereas liberals value freedom of choice. However, the Greens have been talking more about liberty since the FDP ceased to be represented in the Bundestag.

[Sozialliberal]

Mayor Jens Böhrnsen has announced that he will resign because of the disappointing election result of his party. The SPD Bremen has received the lowest share of votes since 1946 (just under 33 %). The turnout is at an all-time low, too (about 50 %).

The votes won't be fully counted until Tuesday or even Wednesday because the electoral system of Bremen is so complicated.

[Sozialliberal]

I suppose in Bremen that SPD-Grünen should be the natural coalition to rule ? Or is it another Grosskoalition ?

Both a red-green and a grand coalition are possible options. A grand coalition seems more likely now because both the SPD and the Greens lost many votes, whereas the CDU gained votes. The SPD has an interest in preventing the CDU from growing even more and perhaps replacing it as the largest party in Bremen. The smaller party in a coalition tends to lose more votes or win less votes than the larger party.  The SPD and the Greens also had some quarrels when they were in government.

[Sozialliberal]

The votes of the Bremen election are fully counted now. 42 seats are needed for a majority.

SPD, 32.8 %, 30 seats
CDU, 22.4 %, 20 seats
Greens, 15.1 %, 14 seats
The Left, 9.5 %, 8 seats (That's a lot for a state of the former West Germany.)
FDP, 6.6 %, 6 seats (Wow, 666! )
AfD, 5.5 %, 4 seats
Citizens in Rage, 3.2 %, 1 seat (They got 6.5 % in Bremerhaven.)
Die PARTEI/The Party, 1.9 % (their best result by far in an election at state level)
Pirate Party, 1.5 %
Animal Welfare Party, 1.2 %
NPD, 0.2 % (They candidated only in Bremerhaven, where they got 1.4 %. It's always nice to see them do badly.)

[Sozialliberal]

Sigmar Gabriel, who is currently Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, has said that he wants to stand as the SPD candidate for the chancellorship in the next election. It is expected that Merkel will stand for a fourth term, though she hasn't announced it yet. There is a strong feeling of resignation within the SPD. Their bigwigs openly say that they have as good as lost the election already. Although Merkel's popularity has been damaged by her asylum and migration policies recently, I can't see how the SPD would take advantage of this. Can you imagine the SPD nominating someone who criticizes Merkel for being too lenient with refugees/migrants? I can't. It's crazy how much Merkel has changed the CDU. Black-Green is a likely coalition option now. That would have been unthinkable during the Kohl years! Merkel and Gabriel aren't very different ideologically. Merkel could be in the SPD, and Gabriel, who is a typical "Third Way" politician like Gerhard Schröder, could be a CDU member as well.

[Sozialliberal]

Here are three reasons why I think that the CSU going federal is very unlikely:

1 The CSU currently plays the role of a populist regional party, especially rhetorically. Its purpose is defending Bavarian interests against the "Prussians". That would no longer work if they had to share their party with said "Prussians".

2 The CSU governed Bavaria without a coalition partner constantly from 1966 to 2008, and they take a lot of pride in that. It was a disaster for them when they lost their absolute majority of seats in 2008. They regained it in 2013, but they would most certainly lose it again if they had to face competition from the CDU.

3 It's not the first time that CSU politicans have ranted about one of Merkel's policies and have backed it anyway in the end. So voters who are not satisified with Merkel's asylum and migration policies could think that the CSU are just "big-mouths" and vote for a new party like the AfD or ALFA instead.

[Sozialliberal]

A football/soccer match in Germany, which was actually meant as a sign of resistance to terrorism after the bomb attack near a football/soccer stadium in Paris, has been cancelled because there were specific indications that a similar attack was planned in the stadium in Germany.

2. SPD-Green-FDP: even if the FDP manages to reach the threshold, it would probably prefer cooperation with CDU to cooperation with SPD and the Greens. And then again, we don't even know if this combination would have a majority. Not likely.

Well, I don't think SPD-Greens-FDP would have a majority in 2017. However, I can imagine that the Third Way-ite Gabriel and the FDP chairman Lindner, who's trying to get rid of the image that the FDP is a mere tax-cut party, would seriously consider such a coalition if it did have a majority. (By the way, Lindner has welcomed two former Pirate Party chairmen into the FDP.)

3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.

I actually think that "Die Linke" would be more likely to lose votes in such a coalition. When "Die Linke" were junior partners in governments at regional state level (in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin and Brandenburg), they always lost large shares of votes.

The DDR past of "Die Linke" plays a role, too. However, their foreign policies, which many perceive as utopian and too Putin-friendly, are seen as a much bigger obstacle to a federal red-red-green coalition now.

Controversial foreign policies of "Die Linke":
* opposition to economic sanctions against Russia as a response to the annexion of Crimea
* dissolution of the NATO and establishment of a new military alliance that would also include Russia
* a ban on any exports of arms

    Is there any chance of an internal coup within the CDU to overthrow Merkel? If that were to happen and someone like Schauble take over would the SPD still want to continue in coalition?

The German media have speculated about that. Chancellor Merkel's asylum/migration policies have apparently disunited the CDU. It looks like there is a permissive tendency around Merkel and a restrictive tendency around de Mazière (Minister of the Interior) and Schäuble (Minister of Finance). If an internal coup is actually staged, a snap election would be a near certainty. I don't think the SPD would actually want to continue the coalition in that scenario, but they would probably end up doing it anyway for reasons of state.

[Sozialliberal]

Yesterday, Sigmar Gabriel was re-elected as SPD chairman. He received 74.3 % of the delegate vote, making it the second-worst result for an SPD chairman since 1946. Only Oskar Lafontaine received a lower share of votes in 1995, when he challenged the incumbent Rudolf Scharping. Since no one ran against Gabriel, the result is an even greater embarrassment for him.

So why did more than a quarter of the delegates vote against him? Well, there's his staunch support for the free-trade agreements TTIP and CETA, his championship of data retention and his remarks about not ruling out a temporary Grexit. He also irritated many follow SPD members when he engaged in a dialogue with supporters of the anti-Islamic movement Pegida.

Sigmar Gabriel's results in SPD chair elections, sorted by year:
2009: 94.2 %
2011: 91.6 %
2013: 83.6 %
2015: 74.3 %

Worst election results for SPD chairmen since 1946:
62.6 % (Oskar Lafontaine, 1995)
74.3 % (Sigmar Gabriel, 2015)
76.0 % (Gerhard Schröder, April 1999)
79.4 % (Rudolf Scharping, June 1993)
80.8 % (Gerhard Schröder, 2003)

Best election results for SPD chairmen since 1946:
99.7 % (Kurt Schumacher, 1947)
99.7 % (Kurt Schumacher, 1948)
99.4 % (Willy Brandt, 1966)
99.4 % (Matthias Platzeck, 2005)
98.8 % (Hans-Jochen Vogel, 1988)

Source of the election results: stern.de

[Sozialliberal]

Hitler's "Mein Kampf" to be republished in January 2016 due to copyright expiration

In the European Union, a work is protected under copyright up to 70 years after the author's death. The copyright expires on 1 January of the following year. Because Adolf Hitler died on 30 April 1945, the copyrights of his works will expire on 1 January 2016. That means that anyone in the European Union will be able to legally publish Hitler's works without having to ask for permission.

The copyright history of "Mein Kampf" is quite interesting: Hitler had been registered as a resident of Munich, Bavaria until his death. Since Bavaria was part of the American occupation zone, the American Military Government seized Hitler's property (including his intellectual property). It was planned that the respective regional states confiscate the property of people who are responsible for the Nazi crimes. Each of the suspects had to be brought to trial. Hitler was found guilty in 1948 and his property was confiscated by the Free State of Bavaria. As a result, the Free State of Bavaria, represented by the Bavarian Ministry of Finance, became the copyright holder of "Mein Kampf".

The Bavarian Ministry of Finance always refused a republication of "Mein Kampf" and brought lawsuits against people or companies that published "Mein Kampf" in Germany or abroad. However, the book could still be published legally in English-speaking countries because the company "Random House" acquired the publishing rights for that area in the 1930s. With the advent of the Internet era, the prohibition on the publication of "Mein Kampf" has become ineffective. Anyone in Germany can download it.

The 2016 edition will be published by the Institut für Zeitgeschichte ("Institute for Contemporary History"). This institute is financed by the Federal Republic of Germany and seven regional states (including Bavaria). Commentaries by historians and about 3,700 footnotes will be added to the 781-page original so that the whole edition will contain roughly 2,000 pages in two volumes. The production of the edition started in 2009.

Bavaria temporarily supported the project from April 2012 on but withdrew in December 2013. The Bavarian Ministry of Finance holds the opinion that the spread of "Mein Kampf" would still be illegal in Germany after the copyright expiration because the book is anticonstitutional propaganda and incitement to hatred. The republication remains controversial. The assembly of the justice ministers of the regional states left it open whether they will prohibit the 2016 edition by the Institut für Zeitgeschichte.

My personal opinion is that it would be very stupid to prohibit the Institut für Zeitgeschichte edition. I'm shocked by the excessive prohibition mentality of some of my fellow citizens. Why not inform the public with this annotated edition?

[Sozialliberal]

Black-Green would also be a viable coalition in Baden-Württemberg. Both top candidates, Wolf (CDU) and Kretschmann (Greens), said they don't rule it out.

The situation in Saxony-Anhalt, however, looks more complicated. A continuation of the grand coalition could be the only viable coalition there. It's unclear whether Red-Red-Green will have a majority.

By the way, Saxony-Anhalt has the reputation of being the state with the most volatile electorate in Germany. Look up their state election results from 1990 onwards and you'll understand why.

The CDU top candidate in Rhineland-Palatinate, Julia Klöckner, is decidedly more restrictive/conservative than Chancellor Merkel when it comes to asylum/immigration/integration policies. It will be interesting to see if it'll pay off for her on election day.

[Sozialliberal]

First poll showing a result where if the CSU refused to join, a grand coalition potentially wouldn't have a majority.

I don't think that will happen, though. The CSU is like a dog that barks but doesn't bite.

There won't be a state election in Hesse anytime soon, but this poll struck me because I believe it's the first time that a poll suggests that the AfD is the third party in a state of former West Germany.

State election poll for Hesse (current government: CDU + Greens):
34 %, CDU
26 %, SPD
12 %, AfD
11%, Greens
8 %, The Left
5 %, FDP
4 %, other parties
(1,000 people were polled by Infratest dimap between 12th and 16th January 2016.)


The poll was part of a survey. I think the following part is interesting, too. The questions asked were: "What do you think is the most important political problem in Hesse that needs to be prioritized? What is the second most important?" The questions were open-ended. All responses were subsumed under categories. The results are:

70 %; refugee crisis, foreigners
23 %; education, school, job training
9 %; unemployment, job market
8 %; crime, violence
7 %; economic situation
6 %; social injustice
5 %; family policy, day nursery places
5 %; transport
4 %; budget, regional state debt
4 %; housing

[Sozialliberal]

The FDP top candidate in Baden-Württemberg said he is aiming for a "Germany coalition" (named after the colours of the German national flag), a coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP, because neither Black-Yellow nor Black-Red would have a majority according to polls. Such coalitions were formed in some states until the late 1950s. He ruled out a Green-led traffic-light coalition (Greens, SPD + FDP).

[Sozialliberal]

LOL The federal SPD in its current state wouldn't survive a black-red-yellow coalition.

[Sozialliberal]

Controversial statements by AfD members of parliament

DavidB., didn't you express your approval of the AfD? You might want to reconsider that.

Wolfgang Gedeon, a member of the state parliament of Baden-Württemberg for the AfD, was accused of making anti-Semitic statements and playing down the Holocaust in some of his books. We are used to reading about anti-Islamic statements from AfD politicians, but anti-Semitic statements were unheard-of. Gedeon denied being an anti-Semite and playing down the Holocaust, but said that he was a "staunch anti-Zionist". I translated some of Gedeon's statements to show you what we're talking about. To make it clear, I do not endorse his opinions in any way.

The following quotations were taken from this book by Gedeon, which was published in 2012:
Der grüne Kommunismus und die Diktatur der Minderheiten. Eine Kritik des westlichen Zeitgeists. (Green communism and the dictatorship of minorities. A critique of the Western zeitgeist.)

"In the way that Islam was the external enemy, the Talmudic ghetto Jews were the internal enemy of the Christian Occident"

"When the centre of political power moved from Europe to the US in the 20th century, Judaism in its secular-Zionist form even became a decisive factor of power and impact of Western politics. (...) The formerly internal spiritual enemy of the Occident is now a dominant factor of power in the West, and the formerly external enemy of the Occident, Islam, overran the separating borders by means of mass immigration, penetrated deeply into the Western societies and is reorganizing them in many ways."

On the erection of the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe:
"It is, however, rare, if not unique, that a people erects a gigantic monument in remembrance of some disgraceful events of its history in the largest square of its capital city. The worst thing about it is: Most Germans think that's completely ‘normal’ by now."

Gedeon also called the commemoration of the Holocaust a "civil religion of the West" and the neo-Nazi and convicted Holocaust denier Horst Mahler a "dissident". He wrote that the The Protocols of the Elders of Zion were "presumably not fabricated".

Jörg Meuthen, who is the chairman of the AfD group in the state parliament of BW, is known to be one of the more moderate AfD politicians. He said that he is convinced that some of Gedeon's statements were anti-Semitic, and that he would resign from his office if the proposed expulsion of Gedeon from the AfD parliamentary group failed. The expulsion of a member from a parliamentary group requires the approval of at least two thirds of the group members. Meuthen was criticized by some members of his parliamentary group and also by the federal AfD chairwoman Frauke Petry for saying he would step down if the expulsion proposal failed.

The AfD members of the BW state parliament who disagree with Meuthen can be divided up into two categories. One category thinks that some of Gedeon's statements were grotesque but not against the law, and therefore had to be tolerated for the time being. The other one is of the opinion that none of Gedeon's statements were anti-Semitic and demands an academic expert report to prove the contrary.

There was no two-thirds majority for the expulsion proposal in straw polls of the AfD parliamentary group. Then Gedeon said that he would suspend his membership of the parliamentary group because he didn't want to divide the party. Meuthen saw that as a success because his group would no longer work with Gedeon for the time being. Furthermore, Gedeon would also sit apart from the AfD group. However, the law doesn't provide for the suspension of a parliamentary group membership. So technically, Gedeon is still a member of the AfD group. The AfD group has commissioned an academic expert report that is meant to clarify whether Gedeon's statements are anti-Semitic. They plan to discuss Gedeon's expulsion again in September.


Another incident happened when the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt was having a debate about whether Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia should be classified as "safe states of origin". That means that applications for asylum from citizens of these states are rejected by default. Henriette Quade, a member of parliament for The Left, was speaking about the situation of homosexuals in these countries:
"Particularly for homosexuals, the security situation is more than difficult. It is prohibited and is, to a great extent, a taboo. People who openly display their homosexuality are in danger of imprisonment."

According to the transcript of the session, Andreas Gehlmann, a member of parliament for the AfD, then heckled:
"We should do that in Germany, too!"

Some interpreted that as a demand for the imprisonment of people who openly display their homosexuality in Germany. Gehlmann, however, said that his heckling referred to the "taboo" part and not the "imprisonment" part. He also said that he strongly disapproves of openly displayed sexuality in general and not only openly displayed homosexuality.

[Sozialliberal]

AfD group split up

Meanwhile, according to Meuthen, two academic expert reports have confirmed that Gedeon did make anti-Semitic statements. However, there was still no two-thirds majority for his expulsion in the AfD parliamentary group of Baden-Württemberg. Therefore, Meuthen and twelve other AfD members who approved of the expulsion split off from the AfD group. There are ten remaining members who opposed the expulsion. An official statement from the federal party executive, of which Meuthen is a member, says that the federal party recognizes only the group around Meuthen. However, Meuthen acknowledged that the federal AfD chairwoman Petry was not involved in that decision. Petry said that she is going to talk with the "whole parliamentary group" in BW and that any form of anti-Semitism or racism had no place in the AfD. She spoke of a "constructive de-escalation" and appealed to the members of parliament to "keep calm" and not to "go public with rash decisions". This is probably a power struggle between the "moderate" (in AfD terms) Meuthen and the radical Petry. Meuthen underplayed the split-up by saying that such an event was not unusual for a young party, citing The Greens in the 1980s as an example.

It seems AfD is going down the tubes at a shockingly rapid pace. Very sad. It is incredible that even a single person would think these remarks are not antisemitic. Some AfD politicians are clearly shifting toward a FN-like position, mixing typical European antisemitism with something that resembles a Eurasianism worldview as espoused by Dugin. Petry's disapproval of the moderate's position instead of the antisemite is especially a red flag. You are right, I will need to reconsider my "support" of this party.

To give you more details on Petry's stance: Petry said that Meuthen had divided the party by saying he would step down if the expulsion proposal failed. In her opinion, that was rash. She welcomed that the AfD group had commissioned an academic expert report to clarify whether the statements are anti-Semitic. Personally, I think that's ridiculous. I don't have to be a historian to recognize anti-Semitism.

[Sozialliberal]

SPD and The Left made conditions for red-red-green coalition

Thomas Oppermann, chairman of the SPD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, set these conditions for a red-red-green coalition at federal level:

• The Left must declare their acceptance of the deployment of German military personnel in foreign countries.
• The Left must declare their acceptance of the NATO.

Bodo Ramelow, who was the first Left politician to become a governor/premier and is currently leading the first red-red-green coalition in a German state, said:
"I advise my party not to make this coalition opportunity impossible because of the NATO issue."
"That doesn't mean that we have to become enthusiastic NATO supporters."
Ramelow is considered to be part of the reformist camp of The Left, which is more open to forming coalitions and making compromises.

Sahra Wagenknecht, chairwoman of The Left parliamentary group in the Bundestag, set this condition:

• The SPD and the Greens must pursue a policy of "restoring" the welfare state and undoing the "devastation" that has been caused by the Agenda 2010.

SPD and Greens upset about attacks against NATO and Hillary Clinton from Left hardliners

Oskar Lafontaine, one of the founders and best-known politicians of The Left, has called Hillary Clinton a "terrorist" in a Facebook post. He said: "According to German law, a terrorist is someone who unlawfully uses violence to achieve political objectives." In Lafontaine's opinion, Clinton had done that as secretary of state because "in order to achieve its imperialist objectives, the United States ruthlessly wages war and continues murdering".

Sahra Wagenknecht accused the NATO of warmongering in a Bundestag debate: "The NATO encirclement of Russia does not keep the world peace but threatens it." Wagenknecht argued that the NATO should be replaced with a "collective security system" that would include Russia and would have disarmament as its central goal, which is an official policy of The Left.

Politicians from the SPD and the Greens were upset about these statements. The Green chairwoman Simone Peter said:
"The Left cannot set conditions for red-red-green on the one hand and isolate themselves with comments like these at the same time. If they take their capability of governing seriously, they must stop letting loose populist slogans."

[Sozialliberal]

Politicians commented on potential coalitions in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Berlin: The top candidates of the SPD, the Greens and The Left said that they can imagine forming a red-red-green coalition after the upcoming election. Michael Müller, Mayor of Berlin and SPD top candidate, said that he doesn't rule out the continuation of the grand coalition either. However, he acknowledged that the cooperation with the CDU is becoming more and more difficult. Müller criticized the CDU top candidate Henkel for adopting right-wing populist positions such as a burka ban, the abolition of dual nationality, and the deployment of the German army for internal security. The Greens ruled out a black-green coalition.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: The respective parties didn't rule out a red-red-green coalition, but it is expected that the SPD prefers the continuation of the grand coalition. Interestingly, the relationship between the SPD and the Greens in this state has been described as "not unproblematic". The SPD already formed a coalition with the PDS, which is a predecessor party of The Left, from 1998 to 2006. So they're more familiar with each other, whereas the Greens entered the state parliament in 2011 for the first time ever.

New AfD strategy

The AfD targets a new group of voters in Berlin: potheads!

The poster reads: "My Moroccan drug dealer gets his life completely financed by the state. Something's super-fishy in Germany, and that's why I'm voting for the Alternative."

No, this is not a joke! Ronald Gläser, the spokesman for the AfD of Berlin, confirmed that this is an actual AfD election campaign poster. It's part of the AfD's strategy to attract more urban voters. Gläser also said that they're thinking about targeting German citizens of Turkish or Arabic origin in the future. How bizarre!

Despite my concerns regarding the less than satisfying response vis-a-vis anti-Semitism within the party, I would vote AfD.

Have you looked at ALFA? It seems like a good fit for you: Eurosceptic, economically liberal in the European sense, strongly pro-American (unlike the more pro-Russian AfD). They're also critical of Merkel's asylum/immigration policy and presented an asylum concept that is very detailed and, in my opinion, well-thought-out. What makes me sceptical is that Bernd Lucke signed an appeal ("Hamburger Appell") that called for cutting unemployment benefits even more after the Hartz reforms. I'm strongly opposed to that. I also think they're too uncritical of the free-trade agreements TTIP and CETA. ALFA hasn't been very successful in state elections: 1.0% in BW was its best result. I don't know if that would bother you.

Is there a reason why spd has siffered in local and federal polls since last year, is it association with cdu with the grand coalition or do they have their own issues in the coalition?

The SPD bleeds voters to the AfD (especially in the East), but if there are popular incumbent Governors such as in Rheinland-Pfalz, they can hold their vote (or even increase it slightly).

Thanks! I always just assumed afd got its voters from disillusioned cdu and free liberals

The voter base of the AfD has been mostly working-class from the beginning on. The AfD absorbed considerable numbers of voters from all major parties except the Greens. I'd say that the SPD lost more voters in the west to the AfD than it lost voters in the east to the AfD. I think so because the SPD has (or had?) a working-class base in the west that traditionally votes social-democratic in every election. It doesn't have that in the east.

[Sozialliberal]

I feel uneasy about the MV state election, because the nasty AfD could actually receive the most votes. Even though I disagree with her on asylum/immigration and other issues, I admire Chancellor Merkel for doing such hard work. She had to react very quickly during the refugee crisis. There are rumours that the CSU tried to persuade her not to seek re-election. If the AfD really becomes the largest party in the MV state parliament, she should follow that advice in the interest of our country.

Is there any CDU or CSU politican at the local or the state level that has discussed or mentioned opentype an cooperation with AfD or is that out of question and tabu even on local and state level?!

State level: No, but it might happen in the future. It depends on whether the AfD will be a short-lived phenomenon or stick around for a longer time. Take The Republicans as an example. They had success as a protest party against the asylum/immigration policy of the government at the time, which many people perceived as too liberal. They entered several state parliaments in the early 90s but faded away because the government changed its policy.

Local level: Yes, there have been joint parliamentary groups of AfD members and members of other parties (e.g. FDP, CDU, SPD) at local level. However, they were all formed before Merkel let the refugees/immigrants who were stuck in Hungary in the country. You should also keep in mind that local politics is more about individuals and less about parties. Let me give you an extreme example: In the town council of Emmerich am Rhein, an FDP member formed a joint parliamentary group with a member of The Left and a member of a local party in 2014.

How is Gabriel maintaining his hold at leadership considering the sad state of the party at the federal level? Who will be the likely successor?

There's a feeling that Anyone Will Lose Against Merkel - and, gaffe-prone and erratic as he is, Gabriel has avoided major scandals or controversies. The likely (post-2017) successor is anybody's guess - odds right now are on Olaf Scholz (Mayor of Hamburg) or Andrea Nahles (Federal Minister of Labour).

You hit the nail on the head! Welcome to the forum.

Well, Scholz and Nahles are both third-wayists, so not much different from Gabriel policy-wise. Scholz is really bland, but extremely popular in Hamburg. I think of him as the Merkel of the SPD. A Merkel vs Scholz debate would be the best cure for insomnia.

[Sozialliberal]

I thought Hannelore Kraft was touted as a future SPD candidate for Chancellor?

Kraft was repeatedly asked by journalists if she would like to be the SPD candidate for the chancellorship, and she always answered that she has no ambitions to enter federal politics.

I thought Nahles was from the party left

Well, she's a member of the "Parliamentary Left", which is an association of more left-wing SPD Bundestag members. However, Nahles proves that you can be part of the SPD left and still be a third-wayist. During her tenure as minister of labour and social services, a law was passed that victimizes unemployment benefit recipients even more in some points (e.g. making it harder to receive back payments if the unemployment benefit was miscalculated). Not even all of Nahles' proposals are contained in that law. For example, she wanted to cut unemployment benefit for single parents: A single parent would receive a lower unemployment benefit for days when their children live at the other parent's place. That could also make disputes between parents who live separately worse. After protests from the parliamentary opposition and social-policy lobbying organizations, she withdrew that proposal.

I can't think of any well-known SPD politician who is not a third-wayist to some extent. Many former SPD members who support left-wing economic policies are now members of The Left (best-known example: Oskar Lafontaine). When an SPD politician criticizes Hartz IV, it's usually along the lines: "Well, Hartz IV wasn't all bad. Some things were good. Some things were not so good." When a Left politician criticizes Hartz IV, it usually sounds like this: "Abolish Hartz IV! Immediately!"

[Sozialliberal]

Thanks for your great posts, Sozialliberal, and for replying to my post on AfD. If you're interested, we can discuss this by PM in order to prevent this thread from being derailed (but I also understand if you don't really care ).

Thanks, I do my best. Your posts in the Dutch elections and politics thread are not bad, either. We can discuss this by PM.

[Sozialliberal]

Thanks for your great posts, Sozialliberal, and for replying to my post on AfD. If you're interested, we can discuss this by PM in order to prevent this thread from being derailed (but I also understand if you don't really care ).

Thanks, I do my best. Your posts in the Dutch elections and politics thread are not bad, either. We can discuss this by PM.

I'm curious, Sozialliberal: which party do you belong to in Germany? The FDP?

That's a good question! Sadly, I think all major parties in Germany are more or less horrible.

If I had been around in the 1970s (I'm 24 now.), I would have been an FDP supporter. In my opinion, the FDP started to become a horrible party in the 1980s when it adopted economic policies that were influenced by Thatcherism/Reaganism.

In the last Bundestag election, I voted for the Pirate Party, thinking they would be able to bring a breath of fresh air to German politics. However, the party collapsed and they're even more naive about the refugee crisis than the Greens. In the next Bundestag election, I'm probably going to vote for the Free Voters. I think they're just the kind of party Germany needs now: down-to-earth, centrist, pragmatic. There's also an important issue that the Free Voters raise, but the FDP does not: Liberty can be threatened by a too powerful state, but it can also be threatened by a too powerful corporation.

[Sozialliberal]

Well, the result could have been worse. I'm glad that the NPD won't be represented in any state parliament any longer.

[Sozialliberal]

Greens under 5%! (That can still change, though.)

[Sozialliberal]

If anybody ist interested in results as counted

http://service.mvnet.de/wahlen/2016_land/dateien/atlanten/ergebnisse.2016/landtagswahl.html

Looking at the map of electoral districts its interesting that the AfD won in the four easternmost districts while the SPD won big everywhere else - especially in the western parts of the state. Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east? Could it be that being near the Polish border makes people more xenophobic?

I don't know, but one reason is definitely the higher unemployment rate in the eastern part of the state.

  If you combine the AFD, Alfa and NPD vote in the border districts these parties reached a combined mid 30% of the vote there.

Those parties are actually quite different.

Of which parties did the outgoing coalition consist? If SDP-CDU won't have a majority and the Greens don't reach the threshold things can get very tricky here...

SPD-CDU are set to have a majority.

You're of course right, forgot about the Erststimmen. A brief moment of stupidity. Still, I wonder what would have been the most likely scenario in the event that SPD + CDU = <50% of seats and Greens = below threshold. SPD-Die Linke with CDU outside support? SPD-CDU with Die Linke outside support? Or SPD-CDU-Die Linke because a coalition with Die Linke would seem warranted in the face of the "danger" that is AfD?

There's no way that the CDU would ever support an SPD-Left government! An SPD-CDU minority government with outside-support from The Left  or new elections would be likely.

[Sozialliberal]

 Would it be fair to label the AFD, NPD and Alfa as the three most "right-wing" parties, on the migration issue at least?

Perhaps. It just looks strange to me when you lump a neo-nazi party, a right-wing populist party and a party that is similar to the British Tories together. By the way, the Free Voters (Freie Wähler) are critical of Merkel's asylum/immigration policy, too.