German Elections & Politics

[EPG]

The FDP must hope the CDU/CSU drops from their current elevated support level, which will happen sooner or later. Not everyone there will want the AfD, if it's even around.

[EPG]

All the FDP really need is either:
a. the AfD to drift away in the same manner as the Pirates, or
b. an extra 0.2% on top of their 2013 result.

Certainly, I would be on the FDP to return to the Bundestag as the grand coalition's centrist-to-centre-left nature becomes evident in deeds rather than words - though as of right now, I'd expect the AfD to do better.

[EPG]

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Also, are FW willing to join CSU?

Ten years ago, I knew some people connected to FW. A real mix of opinions, united by being against all other parties, but definitely closer to the German centre-right than the centre-left. It really depends on the local area and the local candidate. Nowadays, you may imagine that some of their voters may be supporting AfD instead.

[EPG]

Hm... The two societies are hard to compare. The equivalent to a liberal Labour MP may be found in either the SPD or the Greens, probably not the FDP, and probably not Bayern FW, I feel. Of course, this is relative because the centre grounds of political opinion are quite different. I'd add that in Bavaria, there is an apparent local-religious element that may affect party preference, and also that traditional social-liberal issues are less important in both Germany and the UK than domestic and European economic policies and immigration.

[EPG]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/inquality-and-wealth-distribution-in-germany-a-1190050.html

Its staggering that the SPD can't seem to use this as an argument. I do wonder if it has to do with income inequality between West and East and the subsequent difficulties the SPD have there in getting a core peripheral vote vs Die Linke.

Most wealth in lower deciles in Europe is housing. Fewer Germans want or need to own houses, so wealth at lower income deciles is lower. Thus, it may not be a salient topic. You can just rely on the welfare state.

[EPG]

The GRAND Coalition has no majority anymore ... (47.5% vs. 48.5%):

If this is the result of the next election there will be massive pressure on FDP and Greens to join CDU/CSU into a government.  I guess if the trends last few election cycles and government formation continues like this we will eventually get to a place where it is  (AfD+Linke) > (CDU/CSU+SPD+FDP+Greene) 

Whatever about Weimar, Germany's certainly heading toward a situation where AfD could be the largest party.

[EPG]

Wow, I hadn't realised that SPD + Linke combined was less than the Union.

[EPG]

Wow, I hadn't realised that SPD + Linke combined was less than the Union.

Hasn't that been the case for at least the past five years (ignoring the Schulz surge)?

Perhaps it has, but I had not realised it.

[EPG]

Can someone explain how a government party is going to lose votes for going back into the same government? Were there anti-CDU/CSU/SPD government people voting SPD this time who won't vote SPD again? You see how this is unintuitive.

[EPG]

A poll with AfD in first place will get you headlines - and reposts. A poll with boring old CDU in first place is just normal. The polling equivalent of p-hacking!

[EPG]

March 4, 2018 - The day the SPD died. You lose 11 points in the first GroKo, 5 points in the second one and then decide to get into this alliance for a third time? How goddamn stupid do you have to be in order to do that?

Ever been a political party member?

It's not like being interested in polling numbers or being a writer on the Internet. Party members literally seek power over society. If you are a big old party without a new issue to put on the agenda, that usually means forming or supporting a government. The prospect of "maybe more seats, albeit maybe fewer, in 5 years" is usually not enough to override this basic preference for some power now.

[EPG]

Maybe SPD will take back those poll losses to the Greens, now that SPD are also clearly a useful vote / willing to enter a government like the Greens. Am I being too simplistic?

[EPG]

Maybe SPD will take back those poll losses to the Greens, now that SPD are also clearly a useful vote / willing to enter a government like the Greens. Am I being too simplistic?

Yes, you are. Grand coalitions have always been detrimental to the SPD, as they had to betray their support base in order to contract an agreement with the CDU/CSU.

But it seemed like SPD voters after the election were leaving SPD (unsure whether to govern) for Greens (constructive negotiators)?

[EPG]

Guess that last week's increase in SPD support after the decisive 'yes' to GroKo was so substantial that even INSA couldn't continue with their "sinking Sozis" narrative anymore.

Anyway, one of the most positive polling numbers recently was Emnid's weekly poll on Saturday that had SPD up 3 points and AfD down 2 at the same time. Both now close to their election result again. So voters' reaction seems to support SPD's government participation.

I'm not surprised. I kept wondering why people thought SPD would be crucified for re-joining the government they just left, and I didn't quite buy the answer that they campaigned as an independent party - well, yes, but their voters must have known they were voting for a long-term partner of the CDU, and why were the losses going to Gruene coalitionistas?

[EPG]

So scaled to vote intention, the base of consider-ers is roughly equal numbers of Linke-Green-SPD voters.

[EPG]

The party system of the European Parliament, in which Germany has a large fraction of seats, is naturally very strongly correlated with the party system of Germany.

[EPG]

Only because the Greens are doing very well.

[EPG]

It is almost always the case that governments lose support and oppositions win support. Let's say, 90% of the time, that happens?

[EPG]

Following the events in Chemnitz, some people are now very outraged about certain people in the AfD (mostly Ossis) with "brown" politics. Perhaps they should have thought about this type of politician when they hysterically called Bernd Lucke a Nazi or a far-right populist. It's the typical story of the boy who cried Wolf. AfD has progressively radicalized, but it seems to me that someone as extreme as Höcke barely receives a different treatment than Lucke at the time, simply because AfD were branded Nazis to begin with.

You're right. The liberals are to blame for this neo-Nazi story.

[EPG]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

[EPG]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

reduce immigration and crime maybe ?

They still hate seeing Muslim and brown citizens. Once you stop immigration, they demand Moslemraus like the AfD.

[EPG]

I don't really see who would be happy about that long list, but still happy to see Iqbal living across the road.

[EPG]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

If one party gets everywhere slightly more votes than the rest of parties (and 300 direct seats) rest of parties were compensated with 300 seats for each party.

That would be possible but almost improbable.
If there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, each would have received ~5,2% of the vote and ~15 direct seats.

LOL, think of that: The largest party, at 5.4%, gets the chancellor.

The point where the threshold starts coming closer and closer to the results the actual parties get, and so you get serious parties -- contenders for government -- occasionally finishing below it, is a dangerous one for democracy; under those circumstances actual majorities can be reached with well under 50% of the vote. This was how the AKP rose to power in Turkey in the first place.

The German system can handle 6 serious parties like it has now, but it can't really reach more than about 10 or so without the identities of who finishes above and below the threshold starting to be more meaningful for the results than how much the actual parties get.

2013 already being a good example.

[EPG]

With those German-wide numbers, Sunday will be absolutely brutal for the CSU and SPD in Bayern, but it will also be a signal to the CDU in Berlin ...

I guess if you are right, the anti-foreigner CSU line will mean they do well at the Bavaria election.

[EPG]

... ... If the numbers continue so, eventually some hardliner in the Union is going to start the long process of justifying Union - AfD - FDP. Of course AfD is currently verboten due to its neo-Nazi connections. But unlike (say) the current situation in Sweden, it is an obvious and coherent combination. It would have a strong internal majority for CSU, AfD and hardliners from CDU & FDP. Yet AfD is not sufficiently strong to scare Union & FDP into fearing total loss of control. And the hard part is to get is agreed. Then it becomes a self-sustaining process as like Lega or Trump they can pervert the media, security forces and defenders of the constitution.