German Elections & Politics

[DavidB.]

Well, this is disappointing. I can't really see Petry turning AfD into a FN/PVV clone, so I'm not afraid of that, but this rightward turn will surely make it harder for the party to enter parliament, while a sane, Eurocritical alternative to the right of the CDU (which doesn't necessarily have to be FN-like at all; it could also be Tory-like) is not a bad idea at all for the German political landscape and could help address voters' legitimate concerns regarding the "ever closer union".

[DavidB.]

I didn't keep up with the development regarding to the gay marriage bill at the Bundesrat, and I'm not really really knowledgeable about its powers. What happened and what consequences does this have?

[DavidB.]

Yeah, but even if AfD is useless, the German polls are still remarkably unaffected by this. In most other countries we would see huge swings to the anti-immigration right with an inflow this big.

Yes, neighboring Austria is a clear example for that.

[DavidB.]

Excellent. People are finally starting to be annoyed with Merkel's shenanigans. If I may ask, who did you vote for in 2013, Beezer?

[DavidB.]

I did vote for the AfD in 2013, mainly because of the CDU-FDP's handling of the eurozone crisis. Before that I had always voted FDP. If the FDP did its job and protected liberal values (by that I mean calling for an end to the influx of millions of people with largely illiberal values), I'd also be open to voting for them again. I don't care much for the AfD's cultural plank since I am perfectly fine with gay marriage and essentially feel people can live their lives whichever way they choose. Right now though my most pressing concern is - surprise, surprise - the migrant crisis which puts me in the awkward position of having to vote for a right-wing populist party.

I totally understand. Would've been a fairly loyal FDP voter before 2013 (without hindsight) and an AfD voter in (and after) 2013 as well.

And it's not as if the FDP voted for same-sex marriage when it mattered...

[DavidB.]

1. SPD-Green: doesn't seem likely at the moment, given the fact that this combination polls under 35% now and given the fact that the German electorate is not as volatile as, for instance, the Dutch electorate.
2. SPD-Green-FDP: even if the FDP manages to reach the threshold, it would probably prefer cooperation with CDU to cooperation with SPD and the Greens. And then again, we don't even know if this combination would have a majority. Not likely.
3. SPD+Green+Linke: this could be an option ten years from now, if Die Linke has succeeded in shaking off its kinda-toxic position due to its questionable history in regard to (and views toward) the DDR. Even then, however, social democrats generally don't like working together with their more radically socialist counterparts. It tends to hurt them electorally.

In short, unless something changes in terms of electoral preferences, and this could happen between now and 2017 (but I doubt it), it doesn't seem likely that the CDU will not be part of the next government.

[DavidB.]

Should Germany get its own general discussion thread on the International General Discussion board?

This is Germany's general discussion thread, but it's in International Elections because it's in the framework of "Elections and Politics", like e.g. the Dutch and the Austrian threads.

[DavidB.]

The migrant crisis truly came as a blessing for AfD...

[DavidB.]

What are the ideological differences between Der 3. Weg and the NPD?

[DavidB.]

I, too, am amazed by the fact that this vile organization is not only still allowed to exist, but can even contest in elections. Wow.

Anyway, I looked up some more information on them. It seems that they are, indeed, pagans: they are explicitly anti-Christian and want to replace Christianity with "Artgemeinschaft" ideas, which is basically Germanic paganism mixed with racism/white supremacism. They are also very "leftist"/interventionist when it comes to the economy, standing within the tradition of the NSDAP's left (though I'm not sure if this is much different from the NPD).

[DavidB.]

First time that AfD comes in third?

[DavidB.]

Tell me again, why did Germany oppose the new Polish media law? Something related to partisanship, right?

But yeah, it's admittedly somewhat of a different story if Die Linke is excluded as well. Why is that? A debate with only CDU, SPD and the Greens is weird.

[DavidB.]

Tell me again, why did Germany oppose the new Polish media law? Something related to partisanship, right?

But yeah, it's admittedly somewhat of a different story if Die Linke is excluded as well. Why is that? A debate with only CDU, SPD and the Greens is weird.

You know "serious-business" and that sort of things. Which FDP is now clearly excluded from, happily enough.

Yeah, I definitely understand why the FDP is excluded (and I'm as happy about that as you), but excluding Die Linke and AfD doesn't seem to make sense.

[DavidB.]

I suppose some of it could be down to the margin of error? As others have pointed out, right-wing populist parties are traditionally male dominated parties (at least at the base).

I think this difference is significant, well beyond what the margin of error could explain. But yes, RRWPs are often understood to be Männerparteien, so AfD is by no means unusual in that regard. In "Gendering the vote for populist radical-right parties", Spierings and Zaslove found that there is indeed a gender gap in support for European RRWPs, but that the phenomenon is overemphasized in the sense that the same phenomenon occurs to mainstream right-wing parties, albeit (for obvious reasons) to a smaller extent. The breakdown of RRWPs' voters by gender tends to be somewhere around 60% men, 40% women, although the Dutch PVV is an exception to this, being closer to 50/50.

It doesn't surprise me that SD and AfD seem to stand out in this regard, because they operate in a political environment that is most hostile to RRWPs -- so one would expect these patterns to be more prevalent in Sweden and Germany.

[DavidB.]

[...]
And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!

That's an allusion to Margot Honecker, former Eastern German Minister of Education and wife of Erich Honecker, the last leader of socialist Eastern Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker
Von Storch is comparing Merkel, who has a DDR past, to Margot Honecker.

What's your point?

Palandio is probably just explaining this to non-German posters who didn't get the reference.

[DavidB.]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.

[DavidB.]

  Doesn't it make sense that the SPD is holding its place in the polls.  I would think most of its electorate wouldn't be too opposed to Merkels migrant policy.  It would be the CDU electorate which I would think would be more opposed to it.

Yes, and let's also not forget that some prominent SPD members have come out as critical of Merkel's policies. They are open about being to Merkel's "right" on this issue. Also, the SPD is already the most immigration-critical option on the German left (seeing as the Greens and Die Linke either support Merkel's policies or something even "leftier" than that). Immigration-critical left-wing Germans have nowhere else to go; they could theoretically vote AfD, of course, but this party will be too right-wing for many people, and also too "ostracized". It is simply too big of a step for many.

[DavidB.]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.

I would think their ambition is to be in power not to be a stable runner up...

But would they be much more successful with a new leader? Given the current political climate and the developments in other European countries I highly doubt it. I could imagine the SPD becoming more popular if they take a clear stance to Merkel's right on immigration, but that's a risky thing to do in Germany.

In some sense, the political situation in Germany has become similar to that in Sweden. Neither the left (Rot-Rot-Grün; which, in Germany, would probably not be a viable option anyway, unlike an all-left-wing government in Sweden) nor the bourgeois right (Union + FDP; Alliance for Sweden) has a majority. There is a third political force (AfD; SD), which is ostracized, that prevents any majority government that does not depend on working across the aisle from being formed. Of course, working across the aisle in forming governments is easier in Germany than in Sweden, since the Germans have much less of a problem with grand coalitions. But it also means that there aren't exactly many alternatives to an Union+SPD grand coalition, even after the next election... if the election results will look anything like the current polls, that is.

[DavidB.]

But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.

This is obviously different in a multi-party system. While I agree that losing 10% of a party's support matters (but 10% is a rather high estimation, given the fact that turnout among Muslims is likely lower than among non-Muslims), this is a bad example.

[DavidB.]

AfD 67,9%
FDP 64,1%
CDU 61,5%
Tierschutzpartei 61,5%
Freie Wähler 51,3%
NPD 51,3%
ALFA 48,7%
SPD 48,7%
Die Partei 35,9%
LINKE 28,2%
Grüne 25,6%

Would vote for AfD.

[DavidB.]

ALFA 72,6%
AfD 67,9%
FDP 56%
SPD 50%
CDU 48,8%
Piraten 45,2%
Grüne 33,3%
Linke 33,3%

[DavidB.]

Lol: Greenie MP Volker Beck has stepped down because the police just found out that he possessed 0.6 gram of crystal meth. Beck was an MP since 1994. He declared that he "has always propagated a liberal drug policy". Okay.

[DavidB.]

Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

[DavidB.]

Lmao. Merkel might have been pushing Cameron to do so. Not the smartest move, considering the fact that ALFA will probably be gone next time (but maybe the Tories will be gone too...). Well, either Farage or Le Wilders will be delighted by this news.

Meanwhile, the NPD has launched a vote-splitting campaign for the upcoming state elections: AfD for the direct candidate, NPD for the party list. Much to the AfD's dismay.

Good trolling, I have to admit.

[DavidB.]

The Spiegel Online article on the subject implied that the two other German parties within the ECR group (ALFA and the Family Party of Germany) have pushed hard for this.

I can imagine that the relationship between the ALFA MPs and the remaining AfD MPs must have been somewhat... strained.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see whether they will choose to go to ENF or EFD now. I think EFD, as the less radical choice, is more likely, but at the same time AfD and the FPÖ have been relatively close recently, and AfD, as a fairly pro-Russian party, might feel more at home in ENF (which is full of pro-Russian parties, except for the Dutch PVV) than in the relatively pro-Atlantic EFD group.