German Elections & Politics

[pilskonzept]

Why would so many Greens prefer Merkel over Gabriel? The perception of Merkel being more of a "left-winger" on migrant issues than Gabriel? Is that also the reason why relatively many SPD voters would prefer Merkel over Gabriel?

True for the Greens - leftish on social issues, centrist (or really just "inoffensive") on economic issues is a good fit, and sort of preferable to Gabriel's occasional populist tendencies. For the SPDers...add some good old factionalism, I suppose. No, strike that - that really only applies to SPD members. SPD voters...Merkel is, again, inoffensive to them (including yours truly) in a way that most CDU backbenchers are not.

[pilskonzept]

How is Gabriel maintaining his hold at leadership considering the sad state of the party at the federal level? Who will be the likely successor?

There's a feeling that Anyone Will Lose Against Merkel - and, gaffe-prone and erratic as he is, Gabriel has avoided major scandals or controversies. The likely (post-2017) successor is anybody's guess - odds right now are on Olaf Scholz (Mayor of Hamburg) or Andrea Nahles (Federal Minister of Labour).

[pilskonzept]

My prediction for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election tomorrow:

26.4% SPD (-9.2)
25.3% AfD (+25.3)
20.7% CDU (-2.3)
12.9% Left (-5.5)
  5.6% Greens (-3.1)
  3.1% FDP (+0.3)
  1.9% NPD (-4.1)
  4.1% Others (-1.4)

Turnout: 57.6% (+6.1)

I guess one day that will happen that Afd+Linke=majority of seats ?

Unless AfD goes the way of the Republicans, this is rather likely in (eastern) state elections. Was a close shave in Saxony-Anhalt (41 seats out of 87, with the Greens just barely clearing the threshold at 5.2%. Would have been 44 out of 87 had they stayed under 5.)

[pilskonzept]

Also, please stop treating ALFA as a serious party...they came 15th out of 17.

[pilskonzept]

Oh, and to up the LOL factor: I just read that AfD leader Holm also moved out - and now resides in Berlin's bobo district (and Green stronghold) Prenzlauer Berg.

[pilskonzept]

Looks Germany is doomed to be governed by a CDU-SPD "grand coalition" in perpetuity - much like Austria.

Likely for some time.

Can anyone see ANY way in which the CDU can govern without the SPD (or vice-versa) in the foreseeable future?

Sure, with the AfD. Not going to happen under Merkel or the current AfD leadership, obviously.

[pilskonzept]

Is there any chance of an actual schism between the CDU and CSU whereby the CSU decides to opt out of government altogether and act like a rightwing opposition party?

There has been a chance of that since forever. Is there a chance of them going for it in '17? Hell no.

PS: What colour do people associate with the AfD? so we can start adding them to the red, black, yellow, green, red palette!

Blue. As in FPÖ blue. Sometimes shown as turquoise or purple.

[pilskonzept]

What nickname could we give to a "Black/Blue" coalition - a black eye coalition?

Blaues Wunder. The blue part is straight outta Dresden after all.

[pilskonzept]

Why is CDU popular in that one area of the East?

It's partly the personal vote of Sen. Mario Czaja. But as Wikipedia claims, Biesdorf/Kaulsdorf/Mahlsdorf - i.e. Marzahn-Hellersdorf 4 and 5 - is also "Germany's largest area of detached and semi-detached houses." Mostly interwar. It doesn't feel posh, exactly, just bourgeois and...stable? by East Berlin standards. I have not seen any stats, but I suspect a lot of those houses are owned outright, and by the grandchildren of the people who built them.

[pilskonzept]

Not only there, he's hated in Germany aswell. These Fake media polls can't hide it Long.

By AfD activists, sure. Otherwise he is (was) just too unknown.

That 5% bump in the latest INSA/YouGov poll is probably a house effect though, or rather online vs. telephone poll effect. Just like their notorious lowballing of the CDU vote.

[pilskonzept]

Anschluss, Baby!

[pilskonzept]

Polls of a single city are to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Einwohnerentwicklung_von_Cottbus_-_ab_1871.svg) the sort of area where those numbers are certainly credible.

If Left+AfD combined ever get a majority of seats, the most likely thing to happen is a CDU (or, less likely, SPD) minority government. Unless AfD becomes the strongest party, in which case there will probably be early elections, which will result in someone else (i.e. CDU) winning a plurality and forming a coalition or minority government.

(The 2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election was a close shave, resulting in a CDU-SPD-Green coalition.)

[pilskonzept]

If the articles I read on the future GroKo cabinet are correct, there will be zero ministers from the former GDR (except for Merkel herself, obviously). Given the current situation in the East, isn't this a problem?

It is. Though appointing "random" Easterners would not help much against the AfD tide...they would need someone who was just a little critical of the current immigration policy, too.

Also, has anybody commented how much influence tiny Saarland has now? With AKK, Altmaier & Maas all in or near the highest positions in the land, it seems like Berlin is becoming Saarbrücken on the Spree. I take it geographic balance isn't really expected in the German government?

Within the cabinet, sort of...the absence of geographic balance usually gets some eyebrows raised. Altmaier and Maas being in different parties makes it less of an issue. AKK may well have more real power than these two men, but she is not a cabinet member (and thus doesn't count).

[pilskonzept]

Because Schulz had ruled out another Grand Coalition right on September 24, and the rest of the leadership had (reluctantly) joined in. The Greens, on the other hand, had always declared their willingness to negotiate with all parties except AfD.

[pilskonzept]

If the articles I read on the future GroKo cabinet are correct, there will be zero ministers from the former GDR (except for Merkel herself, obviously). Given the current situation in the East, isn't this a problem?

It is. Though appointing "random" Easterners would not help much against the AfD tide...they would need someone who was just a little critical of the current immigration policy, too.

With Giffey, they found someone who fits that profile nicely.

[pilskonzept]

The fact that it's the Greens who are benefitting from this is both strange and amusing.  What's with their rise nationwide?

The Bavaria numbers don't suggest this, exactly. CSU-Green swing voters are at least as important (in part because the SPD has always been marginal outside of 1) the big cities, 2) post WW2-refugees and their descendants and 3) the Franconian protestant belt.)

True on the nationwide scale though. It's partly a protest vote against SPD joining the government, and partly about the...relationship? between the SPD and the ethnic German working class.

[pilskonzept]

Huh. So the CSU-Green vote could still fluctuate?

That's possible, especially if CSU tries to adopt AfD positions in style as opposed to just adopting them in substance.

Also, on national scale, why can’t Linke seem to benefit? I feel like since they were the only of the three main left-wing parties to not seek a coalition they would do better.

Oh, they do benefit. In the West outside of the South, that is.

In the East, the are losing to AfD whatever they gain from other parties. In Bavaria and BaWü, they're still not very well organized.

[pilskonzept]

Parliamentary monarchy? Should it be a Habsburg or a Wittelsbach?

Hungarian-style regency.

[pilskonzept]

Sure, INSA needs to stay ahead of the curve.

[pilskonzept]

Well, it's Civey - see INSA.

Though a more serious pollster (Infratest dimap) reported a 3-way tie - CDU and SPD at 23 each, AfD at 22, Left at 17 - back in April. The SPD dominance in Brandenburg seems gone for good.

[pilskonzept]

YouGov's AfD numbers for 2021, I guess.

Finally getting a few drops of rain now.

[pilskonzept]

Talk about a surge for The Greens (relative to their '17 election results). I assume the growth in their numbers is primarily at the expense of the SPD? Is there a legitimate chance that The Greens eclipse the SPD during the next federal election, thereby making the three largest parties the CSU, Afd, and Grüne?

AfD being among the top three is probably a given. The rest will depend on whether SPD or the Greens can keep their own foot-in-mouth tendencies in check.

[pilskonzept]

Another federal INSA poll is out.

CDU/CSU: 28,0%
SPD 16,5%
AfD: 16,5%
Greens: 13,5%
Left: 10,5%
FDP: 10,0%

...which is pretty boring by INSA standards.

[pilskonzept]

The beautiful symmetry of six is getting closer and closer. We just need CDU/CSU to drop a few points further, and FDP and Linke to rise a couple of points.

I was fine with the symmetry of five, thank you very much.

[pilskonzept]

So which is more likely post-election: CSU-Green or CSU-FW-FDP ?

I'm gonna stick with the latter. The similarities between the three parties are closer than between the CSU and the Greens.

By the way, in the last weeks the left-leaning media have been introducing several fromer CSU members who have turned their backs on their party and are going to vote Green.
All of them are farmers and have a strong Bavarian accent, of course... lol

It's a shame that Sepp Daxenberger isn't around anymore.