German Elections & Politics

[Lord Halifax]

Bild reports that after the terrorist attack of Berlin INSA poll now has relative to a poll right before the attack

CDU/CSU    31.5 (-1.5)
SPD            20.5 (-1.0)
FDP              6.0 (-0.5)
AfD            15.5 (+2.5)

Bild did not seem to indicate what are the support for Linke or Greens

Its Linke 11.5 % (nc) and Greens 10.0 % (nc).

[Lord Halifax]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-German, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

how?

[Lord Halifax]

how?

imho they contradict the social contract of post-war germany; promote, especially inside of the "new states", kind of "blood and soil" nationalism, leading politicians even attack famous german soccer celebrities cause of their skin colour.

those are - imho - anti-german, neo-russian values, trying to redeem pre-hitler concepts of VOLK (in an ethnical way) and nation.

They are certainly traditional German values. The Germans are historically an ethnically defined nation. Often used as the archetype for this in contradiction to the French civic nationalism.

[Lord Halifax]

how?

imho they contradict the social contract of post-war germany; promote, especially inside of the "new states", kind of "blood and soil" nationalism, leading politicians even attack famous german soccer celebrities cause of their skin colour.

those are - imho - anti-german, neo-russian values, trying to redeem pre-hitler concepts of VOLK (in an ethnical way) and nation.

They are certainly traditional German values. The Germans are historically an ethnically defined nation. Often used as the archetype for this in contradiction to the French civic nationalism.

Right, but that doesn't mean that racism is a "traditional value" of Germany. This is absurd. Ethnic minorities have been living in Germany for centuries.

You are putting words in my mouth. The ethnic minorities before the 60s were Europeans (Poles, French, Danes, Jews) and oppressed during the empire (and obviously under the Nazi regime). Post-war Germany was quite homogenous up to the 60s and retained its ethnically based national identity until recently. The former GDR to an even higher degree. The multikulti experiment is quite recent and artificial to many people.

[Lord Halifax]

how?

imho they contradict the social contract of post-war germany; promote, especially inside of the "new states", kind of "blood and soil" nationalism, leading politicians even attack famous german soccer celebrities cause of their skin colour.

those are - imho - anti-german, neo-russian values, trying to redeem pre-hitler concepts of VOLK (in an ethnical way) and nation.

They are certainly traditional German values. The Germans are historically an ethnically defined nation. Often used as the archetype for this in contradiction to the French civic nationalism.

Right, but that doesn't mean that racism is a "traditional value" of Germany. This is absurd. Ethnic minorities have been living in Germany for centuries.

You are putting words in my mouth. The ethnic minorities before the 60s were Europeans. Poles, French, Danes, Jews were oppressed during the empire (and the remaining ones obviously under the Nazi regime). Post-war Germany was quite homogenous up to the 60s and retained its ethnically based national identity until recently. The former GDR to an even higher degree. The multikulti experiment is quite recent and artificial to many people.

[Lord Halifax]

wagenknecht is - like her husband oskar lafontaine, the former most dangerous man of europe - a left-national-populist.
.

[Lord Halifax]

If the polls continue to show such a close race between the CDU and SPD I wonder if could unleash a lot of strategic voting by supporters of the small parties. Everyone knows that the only possible government that can emerge is another grand coalition - and the only open question is who will be the chancellor. If the SPD beats the CDU by so much as one seat - Schulz becomes chancellor and ditto if the CDU wins by one seat...ergo we could get a lot of last minute shifting of Green and Linke voters to the SPD as a means of ensuring that Schulz replaces Merkel as chancellor. On the other side, you could get some FDP voters going CDU to make sure the CDU is the largest party... (AfD voters mostly hate Merkel so much that they don't give a damn whether the next chancellor is her or Schulz)

No, that is far from given.

[Lord Halifax]

What possible government could there be that is not a grand coalition - no one will work with AfD or Linke and it is outside the realm of possibility that CDU+FDP gets a majority or that SPD+Green gets a majority...maybe i am missing something but how can anything other than a grand coalition emerge - barring some cataclysm like an AfD majority

SPD knows that a counted grand coalition will strangle them in the long run. If they gain, they will try to break that stranglehold.

Therefore its not 100% certain SPD will not work with Die Linke, there are some moderate people in the Linke leadership, and if there is a Red-Red-Green majority they may reach an understanding about outside support.

SPD, FDP, Greens would also be a possibility. The current leadership of FDP isn't as right wing as the previous and the Greens have a moderate ("realo") leadership.

[Lord Halifax]

The first Schleswig-Holstein state election poll since December is out... election is on May 7, concurrently with the French run-off.

SPD 33% (+7)
CDU 27% (-7)
Greens 14% (-1)
FDP 9% (+-0)
AfD 7% (+1)
Left 4% (-1)
SSW 3% (+-0)

This means SPD and Greens could continue their coalition without the SSW's assistance this time.

(I'd attribute the Greens' strong position compared to other recent state polls due to deputy minister-president Robert Habeck, who apparently is the most popular state-level politician in Schleswig-Holstein.)

Which pollster?

[Lord Halifax]

There's nothing at all wrong with policies aimed at increasing native birth rates, whether among Germans or anyone else, but to establish it upon such racial grounds is, well, racist. Those posters are a disgrace and an offense not only to Muslims, but all thinking Germans.

If the purpose of a country is to be the national homeland for a particular ethnic group its hardly racist to try to increase the birth rate of this ethnic group rather than bring in other ethnic groups. Not all countries are supposed to be multiethnic societies. Sometimes that would undermine the entire basis for their existence as a separate state.

[Lord Halifax]

If the purpose of a country is to be the national homeland for a particular ethnic group

that's a big assumption to make

Not really when it comes to a place like Poland. It was only recreated so the Poles could have their own country.

[Lord Halifax]

I've got to say; I find it fantastic that everytime an American uses "liberal" to mean left wing, a stream of European posters turn up and start yelling at them

Serves them right.

[Lord Halifax]

Why is Die Linke doing so badly?

[Lord Halifax]

So, Bernd Lucke's party (the one that split from AfD) did not participate in this election at all? I can't find them in the results?

No they didn't.

[Lord Halifax]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

AfD already ruled out to join a government. Frauke Petry is open to the idea for 2021, but she's isolated in her party. She even today announced that she wouldn't join the AfD parlamentary group. If others follow, the AfD may split into two factions, as they have done for a while in the legislature of Baden-Württemberg. So, the new Bundestag hasn't even assumbled, and AfD is already fighting their own people. Will be fun to watch.

Merkel also ruled out to work with the AfD many months ago. Even the CSU declined to work with AfD. Let alone the FDP.

Is it a "Libertarian" right wing vs. national populists split?

[Lord Halifax]

Terrible polls. The party system is too much splitted what makes everything dysfunctional.

Maybe German politics needs to divorce itself from its aversion against minority governments after all. There must be a reason that all the European countries who happen to do this on regular still exist and prosper. Despite the AfD's recent successes this isn't Weimar, and a minority government won't lead to Germany launching World War III in the long run. A CDU/CSU minority government could be tolerated by SPD or FDP/Greens, depending on the issue. Problem is, we're certainly not there yet. As I indicated before, we would need at least another snap election for that.

Minority governments don't work very well

They do in plenty of countries.

[Lord Halifax]

If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

Haha no. Germany does not do minority governments. Merkel has two choices. She either A -  returns to Jamaica now effectively saying "you are our last hope." Of B - we get another election that at least right now, probably will return similar totals to the bundestag and begins Jamaica negotiations from the beginning. 

Germany historically doesn't do minorities by convention, but conventions can change out of necessity. There's been a lot more talk of minority governments from the ptb than is the norm.

Yeah, all this "country/party x will NEVER do y" stuff is only valid until they do. No taboo or norm lasts forever. If the circumstances change enough the previously unthinkable becomes possible.

[Lord Halifax]

For the first time in 70 years, the Bavarian Governor (Söder, CSU) will not invite the leader of the CDU to his final campaign event ahead of the Bavarian state election this fall.

Instead of inviting Merkel to campaign with him, Söder will invite Chancellor Sebastian Kurz to campaign with him:

https://derstandard.at/2000082146041/Wahlkampf-in-Bayern-Soeder-will-Kundgebung-mit-Kurz-statt-Merkel

Bavaria should just secede and join Austria.

[Lord Halifax]

I don't really see who would be happy about that long list, but still happy to see Iqbal living across the road.

But that wouldn't be a matter of his skin color. Iqbal could change his name to Heinz and stop practicing Islam and most wouldn't care.

[Lord Halifax]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

That would lead to a dominant-party system with CDU being the only truly national party and AfD, SPD, Linke and the Greens being their main opponents in different parts of the country.

It would force FDP to merge into CDU making it more economically right wing. So the dominant party would be further right than today. Why would you want that as a leftist? There would also be many constituencies in the east where it would be CDU vs. AfD and the center-left would be irrelevant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominant-party_system

[Lord Halifax]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

I'm not sure, that FPTP would lead to the outcome, you desire, at the moment. It's only a good idea if you want the Polonisation of East German politics. The only party, that would disappear, ist the FDP. All six parties have their issue/cleavage-driven reasons to exist. And five have regional strongholds and cultural reasons to not disband, especially on the left. By the way, FPTP in Germany is only a good idea if you want the Polonization of East German Politics...And given the intra-camp dynamics it's actually the classical SPD that could be thrown under the bus in the long run. I don't think, that you find that desirable.

Wouldn't CDU (incl. the FDP vote) be strong enough to make it a dominant-party system with different challengers in different parts of the country?

(see my post above)

[Lord Halifax]

Everything is relative: the average resident of Chicago would probably find such districts positively quaint.

The big difference is that if any of those Arab and Turkish clans came to Chicago, or any other US city, and started disrespecting police officers the way they seemingly do in many Western European countries they would simply get a bullet in their head or have the sh**t kicked out of them. So even if the US has plenty of gang problems the gangs don't rule American cities in quite the same way.

[Lord Halifax]

Mark my words: Tarek Al-Wazir will become the new Governor of Hesse!

Is he a practicing Muslim? If so, would he be the first Muslim Minister President?

[Lord Halifax]

Let's not count chickens.

I was counting Muslims.

[Lord Halifax]

germany is ready for green-red-red aka portugal coalition

R2G hasn't had majority in federal polls since...well Schultzmentum? You might be confusing the federal polls with the Hesse Polls, where R2G might get a majority. But a R2G govt isn't really strange for provincial elections, it has already been formed many time in old East Germany. Whether or not it forms here is up to the politicians to decide, who right now might prefer different govts.

Sure, but Die Linke is more radical and a lot less pragmatic in the West. There has never been a R2G coalition in the former Bonn republic.