German Elections & Politics

[TheSaint250]

New Emnid poll:

CDU/CSU - 36% (+/-)
SPD - 29% (-2)
AfD - 9% (+/-)
Left - 9% (+/-)
Greens - 7% (+1)
FDP - 6% (+1)
Others - 4% (+/-)

Is The Left rising at the expense of SPD?

[TheSaint250]

Why is the FDP doing so much better in the polls? It surprises me that some say they could come ahead of Die Linke and AfD

[TheSaint250]

I'm rooting for a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition.

I've really taken a liking to the FDP and favor it over the CDU/CSU

[TheSaint250]

We suddenly have a gay marriage debate in Germany now too.


It basically went like this:

Pretty much every major political party except CDU/CSU and AfD (which ironically is the only party with a gay lead candidate, raising her children together with her female partner) has now gay marriage and gay adoption as a plank in their campaign platform connected with a pledge to not enter a governing coalition which doesn't legalize it.

This means every potential coalition partner of Angela Merkel (SPD, FDP, Greens) wants to have gay marriage as a pre-condition for forming a government with her after the election. Which lead to Merkel saying yesterday: "Okay, fair enough." Martin Schulz basically responded by saying: "Great, let's pass a bill right NOW." And the conservative wing of the CDU/CSU basically said: "F**k you, Merkel!"

German politics is funny

[TheSaint250]

Forsa shows CDU/CSU at 40%. No majority for CDU/CSU-FDP though ...

I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel

[TheSaint250]

I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel

No, they wouldn't.

Would they just go for a grand coalition again or do a German flag coalition or a Jamaica coalition?

[TheSaint250]

AfD will probably underperform

[TheSaint250]

Interesting new YouGov poll:

"Should (insert state) secede from Germany and become independent ?"

32% Bayern
22% Thüringen
22% Saarland

(...)

8% each for Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein & Rheinland-Pfalz

http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/bundesland/umfrage-bundeslaender-wollen-raus-aus-deutschland-52565436.bild.html

Yikes, those are actually really high numbers!

For reference around 25% of Basques or 42% of Catalans want independence. I wonder why there are no relevant "Bayern/Thuringen/Rheinland-Pfalz nationalist party" like here. They don't even need to be full on independence, just wanting more money and autonomy would be good enough

I believe there is a Bavarian regional party. It's not particularly strong though

[TheSaint250]

We should just start using socialist, liberal, and conservative.  That's what's usually used if I'm not mistaken

[TheSaint250]

We should just start using socialist, liberal, and conservative.  That's what's usually used if I'm not mistaken

Only if "socialist" is solely applied to Germany's Left Party. Because the SPD is social-democratic, not socialist.

lol I guess that makes sense. Is that how'd you describe left center and right?

[TheSaint250]

I doubt Merkel will seek a grand coalition again. It looks like she might go for a Jamaica Coalition

[TheSaint250]

I doubt Merkel will seek a grand coalition again. It looks like she might go for a Jamaica Coalition

I think she'll only need the Greens.

But doesn't she prefer FDP?

[TheSaint250]

I doubt Merkel will seek a grand coalition again. It looks like she might go for a Jamaica Coalition

I think she'll only need the Greens.

But doesn't she prefer FDP?

Only officially. Merkel has never been a conservative. She only became a member of the CDU because Kohl was at the helm during Reunification.
Her political views bear much more resemblance to the Greens than to the FDP.

Huh ok that makes sense, but wouldn't the more conservative elements of the CDU/CSU want her to go with the FDP?

[TheSaint250]

I doubt Merkel will seek a grand coalition again. It looks like she might go for a Jamaica Coalition

I think she'll only need the Greens.

But doesn't she prefer FDP?

Only officially. Merkel has never been a conservative. She only became a member of the CDU because Kohl was at the helm during Reunification.
Her political views bear much more resemblance to the Greens than to the FDP.

Huh ok that makes sense, but wouldn't the more conservative elements of the CDU/CSU want her to go with the FDP?

Of course. But she will be lucky and happy if a black-yellow coalition doesn't get enough votes. Furthermore there has been a strong black-green movement for over twenty years call "pizza connection" making the case for a black-green coalition. It's named after a meeting of various CDU and Green politicians, including Hermann Gröhe, Armin Laschet, Peter Altmaier, Ronald Pofalla, Julia Klöckner, Kristina Köhler, and on part of the Greens Katrin Göring-Eckardt, Cem Özdemir, Volker Beck, in the Italian restaurant Sassella in Bonn in 1995.

Pofalla and Altmaier later become Merkel's Head of the Federal Chancellery and the former was also her party's Secretary General. I think that says a lot about Merkel.

Ok thanks

It will be interesting to see what happens after this election

[TheSaint250]

I think AfD will underperform following the recent trend despite the protests. Then again all of my predictions have been wrong since brexit. They were:

-No Brexit
-Clinton victory
-PVV getting 1st place (The Netherlands)
-Le Pen getting 40% or more of the vote (France)
-Estes would win by more than he did (KS-04)
-Quist win (MT-AL)
-Conservative majority (UK)
-Ossoff win (GA-06)
-Norman would win by more than he did (SC-05)

I'm 0 for 9. On my record, AfD might come in first or something crazy.

[TheSaint250]

I think AfD will underperform following the recent trend despite the protests. Then again all of my predictions have been wrong since brexit. They were:

-No Brexit
-Clinton victory
-PVV getting 1st place (The Netherlands)
-Le Pen getting 40% or more of the vote (France)
-Estes would win by more than he did (KS-04)
-Quist win (MT-AL)
-Conservative majority (UK)
-Ossoff win (GA-06)
-Norman would win by more than he did (SC-05)

I'm 0 for 9. On my record, AfD might come in first or something crazy.

If Merkel makes some sort of vague promise to the right AFD can underperform, like how Rutte won because he tacked to the right on the last couple days and had that spat with Turkey.

Yeah that would probably be her best bet, but it seems like she wouldn't do it. Tacking somewhat left is what's keeping from swing voters from jumping ship

[TheSaint250]

Merkel will either have to side with the Greens or the AfD in addition to the FDP. Most likely greens first but to ensure a coalition she can't write off AfD completely

[TheSaint250]

Merkel loathes AfD.

Yeah, she does, that's why I was thinking literally as an extreme

She'd sooner form a new grand coalition than team up with them.

Probably

[TheSaint250]

I still believe that in the end there will be a slight majority for CDU/CSU-FDP (like in the NRW state election) ...

No AfD or Green support needed.

Yeah, that's what I've been thinking/hoping for.

[TheSaint250]

Good news, the Political Compass have decided to grace us with their interpretation for the upcoming election.




Besides the obvious, like the CSU being far to the left of CDU and Die Linke being far and away the most libertarian party, I'll point out that since last election apparently CDU and SDP have swung to the right and the greens have shifted WILDLY, moving from where Die Linke is now.

Thank goodness! I don't know what I would do without the Political Compass's horribly inaccurate informative ideological placings of the parties.

[TheSaint250]

http://www.politico.eu/article/christian-lindner-germany-should-accept-crimean-annexation-as-permanent-provisional-solution/

Christian Lindner (FDP) defended his position that Crimea at this time should be recognized as part of Russia due to Russia taking over the region in 2014.

Will this affect him negatively in any way?

[TheSaint250]

http://www.politico.eu/article/christian-lindner-germany-should-accept-crimean-annexation-as-permanent-provisional-solution/

Christian Lindner (FDP) defended his position that Crimea at this time should be recognized as part of Russia due to Russia taking over the region in 2014.

Will this affect him negatively in any way?

It's not a popular position to take for a liberal.

More for far-right wingers ...

That's what I was kind of thinking. I understand his thinking as being: Russia controls the peninsula, and even if it was taken illegally, it's still Russian property as of now.

If I were him I would have stayed away from the issue. It might be somewhat able to be debated better in the US per se but much less so in a European powerhouse in the EU.

I do wonder if the CDU will attack him harshly for this. After all, like he said, the race for Chancellor is pretty much done, so I'm sure the CDU would try to avoid weakening their coalition partner more than needed

[TheSaint250]

Also, for anyone, are the polls believeable in the Left being in third? I feel like FDP and AfD have a better chance of being third. Am I wrong on this?

[TheSaint250]

Also, for anyone, are the polls believeable in the Left being in third? I feel like FDP and AfD have a better chance of being third. Am I wrong on this?

I belive that the Left is seriously overpolled right now.

In the state elections this year, the Left did much worse than what their pre-election polls showed.

Also, if you look at the Wahlrecht.de site for state polls (for the federal elections), the Left loses significantly compared with 2013.

I think the AfD and Green poll numbers are correct and for the FDP we'll have to wait and see what happens after Barney Lindner's comments.

Ok.

The third-place race is really interesting to watch

[TheSaint250]

https://deutschland.isidewith.com/en/results/1563551855