German Elections & Politics

[mileslunn]

Unless the polls change it looks like it will probably be either a Grand Coalition or Jamaica Coalition, maybe a Black-Yellow if polls are underestimating one or both party.  My understanding is the SPD doesn't want to continue the Grand Coalition while in the past the Greens have generally been unwilling at least at the national level to go into coalition with the CDU/CSU so do you think there will be any difficulty forming a government and if formed what is the most likely one?  Obviously if the Black-Yellow gets a majority than that will most likely occur, but assuming they don't, would it be a Grand coalition again or Jamaica Coalition.

[mileslunn]

It looks like Merkel should easily win, but any chance the Black-Yellow coalition might be viable or will it probably fall short?  If it does it seems either continue with the Grand Coalition or put together a Jamaica Coalition.  The Grand Coalition might be tougher this time as the SPD cannot be a credible opposition party if part of the government so being in opposition for four years would probably be better for them in terms of their prospects in 2021.  On the other hand I am not sure the Greens want to be part of a right of centre coalition as usually when a party on the left is a junior partner in a right leaning one, they get hammered the next election much like Labour in Ireland, Labour in Netherlands, Greens in Czech Republic and Ireland about a decade ago, and the Liberal Democrats in the UK so if they join there is a real risk they will fail to crack the 5% mark next time around and if on the left, this kills really any chance of a left wing government post 2021.  Perhaps maybe the CDU/CSU and FDP could form a minority and do issue by issue.  It's pretty much a foregone conclusion the right (CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD) will get the majority of votes so doing this would be a way to rely on the AfD without actually reaching out them which Merkel has ruled out.

[mileslunn]

A minority government relying on tacit AfD support is really not happening; viewing political competition as right vs. left isn't helpful if the center-right hate the far-right more than the center-left.

So otherwise unless FDP and CDU/CSU outperform polls that means either another Grand Coalition or Jamaica coalition?

[mileslunn]

Maybe we'll give the Dutch or Belgians a run for their money when it comes to the length of negotiations. The way I see it there are plenty of roadblocks to the two likely coalitions.

Grand Coalition: If the SPD manages to beat its previous record low (looking more likely each day), I just can't see how they can then enter government once again unless the party really wants to come in third at the next election. Of course they could sell it as the sole viable option with them only entering the government in the interest of democratic stability.

Jamaica: Can the CSU really share a cabinet table with the Greens? State elections are coming up in Bavaria next year. The FDP and Greens will also be aware of the fact that Merkel has a habit of destroying all junior coalition partners. There are plenty of integrationist projects on the horizon and the FDP will remember that its tacit approval for all sorts of eurozone rescue mechanisms ultimately played a key role in the rise of the AfD and the former's failure to enter parliament. Are they really willing to once again enter such a minefield? Merkel's desire to probably leave a lasting eurozone legacy provide the FDP with limited options to put a stop to Macron's reform projects.

As has already been mentioned, Germans don't do minority governments and the CDU/CSU will most certainly avoid any sort of cooperation with the AfD.

But who knows, perhaps we'll get another grand coalition agreement by late October.

What is the chance no government gets formed and this leads to another election?  My understanding is if no party can put together a government after trying all options, another election is held.  I suspect whichever party was blamed for holding up would pay big time and perhaps maybe the Black-Yellow coalition would get the necessary votes as people would want stability.

[mileslunn]

If Jamaika and the Wiz Khalifa option prove to be impossible, a new Groko will be formed anyway. The responsibility argument will make the SPD do it.

Yeah, fresh elections would probably only help the AfD and since most parties these days appear to primarily be concerned with keeping the party at bay, Schulz and friends would eventually bite the bullet.

True although I think as long as Merkel is leader it will be tough to beat her, but most expect her not to run again in 2021 and so the thinking is the CDU/CSU will have a tough time finding someone as popular as her and this will be weaker.  Not to say the SPD will win in 2021, far from it but I think if they go into opposition they will probably perform better than if junior partner mind you if a Jamaica coalition is formed that could push the Greens below the 5% mark thus killing any chance of a Red-Green coalition in 2021 (I don't think a Red-Green coalition is likely to begin with but a lot can happen in four years).

[mileslunn]

I'm going to go ahead and predict an upset, SPD, Greens, and the Left win a majority (as they did last time) and actually end up forming a government.

AfD and FDP will almost certainly cross the 5% threshold and the combined left wing support is only around 40% so unless the polls make a massive blunder not happening.  Even the 2015 British election the polls were not far that far off as what you mention above. 

[mileslunn]

My German rounded off to the nearest whole number are:

CDU/CSU 36%
SPD 21%
AfD 11%
FDP 9%
Die Linke 9%
Greens 7%

So either continue with Grand coalition or have a Jamaica coalition.

[mileslunn]

It looks like the Red-Green fell just shy of a majority.  Interestingly enough unlike recent German elections it looks like more people voted for parties on the left than right.  I also noticed using constituencies only SPD got a majority so has anyone in Germany ever raised the idea of switching to first past the post or Alternative vote (AV or known as ranked ballots) as both produce majorities and stabilities or is it most European countries so entrenched the idea whatever percentage of votes a party gets they should get that many seats and the idea of deviating from them just doesn't fly with voters even if less stability.

[mileslunn]

Is the west side of Hannover a lot poorer than the east side as it looks like parties on the left dominate it quite heavily so is like East Berlin in demographics or for a British comparison perhaps East London.

[mileslunn]

If the SPD was smart they would let the CDU/CSU form a minority government and then agree to support the budget if it includes certain demands of theirs.  In some ways a minority even if it won't last the full four years is probably best for each of the parties.  Where the CDU/CSU wants to turn rightward they have the FDP and AfD while where they want to turn leftward they have the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke so it might just mean modifying part of their platform which Merkel seems adapt at doing.

[mileslunn]

If the SPD was smart they would let the CDU/CSU form a minority government and then agree to support the budget if it includes certain demands of theirs.  In some ways a minority even if it won't last the full four years is probably best for each of the parties.  Where the CDU/CSU wants to turn rightward they have the FDP and AfD while where they want to turn leftward they have the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke so it might just mean modifying part of their platform which Merkel seems adapt at doing.

What is this exotic thing called a minority government? Does it have 50% + 1?  Does it last the entire term? Is it stable? Is it even German?

/s

Minority government is simply a government that has less than 50% of the seats so it can be a single party with less than 50% of the seats or a coalition that has under 50% of the seats.

[mileslunn]

Brutal for SPD, although I don't think the left is any weaker, it seems if anything the Greens much like in neighbouring Baden-Wurttemberg will probably replace SPD as main left wing party.  Off course Bavaria is a centre-right state so doubt they will form government anytime soon but who knows.  It seems the trend throughout the Western world (UK excepted) is for traditional parties to decline and non-traditional to rise so less ideological more dissatisfaction with the status quo.  UK was the one who bucked the trend as it returned clearly to the two main parties.

[mileslunn]

New poll out of Hesse, where the state election takes place on October 28:



Source

If this holds which is a big if: which of three is most likely:

1.  Grand Coalition
2.  Jamaica Coalition
3.  Traffic Light Coalition

Is a Red-Red-Coalition on the table or has the SPD ruled this out as it some states particularly in former East Germany it is considered, but in most West German states ruled out.

[mileslunn]

What were the party breakdowns for Frankfurt?