Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 13, 2019, 07:39:48 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Admiral Lord Horatio D'Ascoyne)
  German Elections & Politics (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 484530 times)
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« on: October 19, 2013, 04:11:32 pm »

I'm thrilled at the prospect that a Grand Coalition will be so damaging to the SPD that it will, yet again, be in an unrecoverable state by the next election.

It doesn't always work that...the SPD was junior partner in a grand coalition with the CDU 1966-69 and then took the chancellorship from 1969 to 1983!
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2013, 05:48:32 pm »



There's a new Forsa state poll for Berlin out (although the next election is in 3 years):
(Changes in comparison to the 2011 election)

CDU: 27% (+4%)
SPD: 27% (-1%)
Grüne: 16% (-2%)
Linke: 16% (+4%)
AfD: 5% (+5%)

Piraten: 3% (-6%)


I guess the FDP is at ZERO?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2014, 12:43:48 pm »

As former SED members age out of politics, will a nationwide SPD-Linke-Green alliance become more likely?  Or is the Linke still have too great a stigma?

I think it's more of a problem that the Left is anti-Treaty of Lisbon, anti-NATO, anti-sanctions against Russia, anti-German troops in Afghanistan, and anti-couple of other things in foreign policy which are generally supported by SPD/Greens.

As soon as you form a SPD-Green-Left coalition government and something in the world happens which requires a decision by the German government, said government will probably fall apart and be replaced by a Grand coalition again.

All of thoise issues are about foreign policy...what is the obstacle to SPD-Linke coalition at the state level?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2014, 11:07:59 am »

Would the SPD prefer to continue the grand coalition or would they prefer to form a red-red-green coalition.
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2014, 06:54:48 am »

At this point, the AfD has no interest in governing. Why would they?

Isn't the raisin d'être of a political party to be in government and have an impact on public policy?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2015, 02:02:36 pm »


That's all very well but any way you slice it - it all just means that the next election will lead to another Merkel led "grand coalition" - no other government is viable
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2015, 12:58:03 pm »

Can someone give me an idea of what a "non-CDU" government in Germany could ever look like? As I see it, the only way it can happen is if something happens that so far shows no sign of hapening and that is for the SPD to start gaining ground and have a shot at becoming the largest party - and even then, the only way you can avoid a "grand coalition" in reverse where the CDU is still in power is if the was a SPD/Green majority OR is some sort of a  traffic-light coalition could emerge where SPD+Green+FDP have a majority OR if there was an end to the taboo against working with the Linke party in which case maybe an SPD+Green+Linke govt could emerge.

But how likely is any of that?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2015, 04:14:21 pm »

Actually what you are describing is a pretty consistent global phenomenon where junior partners in coalition governments usually get crushed in the following election. Look at how the FDP collapsed from 15% to 4% after being junior partner to Merkel's CDU for four years.. there is also the Lib Dem example in the UK
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2016, 10:01:52 am »

Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.

Not sure there are the numbers for that if both FDP and AfD goes over 5%.  Perhaps CDU/CSU-FDP-Green ?

Isnt that what they call a "Jamaica coalition"??
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2016, 03:51:47 pm »

CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2016, 02:26:03 pm »


The new average of the last five polls for Rheinland-Pfalz is:

CDU 35.4% (+0.2%)
SPD 34.6% (-1.1%)
Greens 6.4% (-9.0%)
FDP 5.6% (+1.4%)
Left 3.8% (+0.8%)
AfD 9.6% (new)
Others 4.6% (-1.8%)

Am I correct that the only possible government in this scenario is a grand coalition and the only real question is whether the CDU or SPD finishes first since that party would supply the premier?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2016, 02:25:57 pm »

Seems to me that AfD poses the same sort of problem that Linke poses for the SPD. Are we moving towards an Austrian style situation in Germany where the only possible government is going to be never-ending "grand coalitions" between the CDU and SPD??
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2016, 02:27:22 pm »

I'll ask again but because no one answered. What does the FDP stand for now? Are they still libertarian? Did they move back to being left liberals? Why did they come back in the polls to win seats?

They're socialy liberal (pro gay marriage, pro european,...) but economicly liberatarian. They're certainly not left liberal.

In other words they are the German equivalent of Bill or Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama then!
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2016, 04:12:40 pm »

I thought Hannelore Kraft was touted as a future SPD candidate for Chancellor?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2016, 11:16:34 am »

Having the CDU come in third behind the AfD in Merkel's home state has to be a big blow to her
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2016, 01:49:17 pm »


Looking at the map of electoral districts its interesting that the AfD won in the four easternmost districts while the SPD won big everywhere else - especially in the western parts of the state. Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east? Could it be that being near the Polish border makes people more xenophobic?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2016, 02:25:58 pm »

  About 15% of the vote went to parties that failed to win any seats, assuming the Greens don't. The 5% rears its ugly head again.

One simple reform would be to add a preferential element to the ballot whereby one could vote Green as their first choice but then have a second choice as well so that if the Greens miss the 5% threshold - their 4.9% gets divided out to the larger parties based on the second preferences of Green voters.

How's that for a solution!
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2016, 03:14:20 pm »


Looking at the map of electoral districts its interesting that the AfD won in the four easternmost districts while the SPD won big everywhere else - especially in the western parts of the state. Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east? Could it be that being near the Polish border makes people more xenophobic?

Greifswalder here (the little red dot in the blue quagmire). The area is literally fcked. Mecklenburg survives because of it's tourism due to the Baltic Sea Coast and the Mecklenburg Lake Plateau. Stuff like that doesn't exist in Vorpommern, there is no industry at all, everyone who is young and educated moves away. (Greifswald is an exception because it's a university city) The people who are left see everything going down hill for their hometowns for decades. It's the perfect area for populist parties.

Thanks, that answers my question...that would also explain there being a lot of Linke/AfD switchers there i guess
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2016, 09:25:34 am »

Looks Germany is doomed to be governed by a CDU-SPD "grand coalition" in perpetuity - much like Austria.

Can anyone see ANY way in which the CDU can govern without the SPD (or vice-versa) in the foreseeable future?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2016, 02:49:45 pm »

The CSU is generally more sceptical of the Greens than the CDU. Especially now during the refugee crisis, the CSU fears that a black-green coalition would scare too many of its voters away.


Is there any chance of an actual schism between the CDU and CSU whereby the CSU decides to opt out of government altogether and act like a rightwing opposition party?

PS: What colour do people associate with the AfD? so we can start adding them to the red, black, yellow, green, red palette!
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2016, 04:23:15 pm »

What nickname could we give to a "Black/Blue" coalition - a black eye coalition?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2016, 10:31:05 am »

Seems to me that it is very fanciful to think that Merkel could form any sort of government other than another "grand coalition" - the consensus of all the polls these days is that the CDU is down around 32% and the SPD is around 23% - so the two parties combined would easily get over 505 of the seats in the Bundestag - and the math doesnt work for any other combination...unless anyone thinks Merkel would ever consider a CDU/FDP/AfD coalition - which is clearly not in the cards. One thing for sure is that CDU+Green will be no where near 50% and CDU+FDP is also no where near 50%.

Some have said that Merkel actually LIKES the grand coalition since her instincts are very centrist and it enables her to disempower the more rightwing factions within her own party and instead run a more "consensual" government of the centre. I suspect that If the CDU/CSU had a slim absolute majority - Merkel would have had a hard time getting her own party to go along with her refugee policy.

One thing i wonder about is what happens to the ratio of cabinet seats to each party in the grand coalition? Last election the CDU took 42% and SPD took 26% - so the SPD took 38% of the two party vote...current polls have it more like CDU 32 and SPD 23 whihc would give the SPD 42% of the two party vote - would that mean an extra seat at the cabinet table in a new Grand Coalition?

Also, what happens after Merkel finally quits? Then are all bets off and if the SPD had a more popular leader than Merkel's successor, could we see the SPD regain first place hypothetically?
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #22 on: December 24, 2016, 02:18:47 am »

The AfD are still a long, long way from the 45% or so they would need to be in government...there is still no mathematical way anyone other than Merkel is chancellor after the election.
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2017, 06:42:47 pm »

Most polls are in field for 5 to 7 days...A poll released today would likely have been fielded partially pre and partially post the Schultz announcement. Wait another week and then we will have some real polls.
Logged
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,354
Canada
« Reply #24 on: February 02, 2017, 08:25:53 am »

26% seems to be the absolute SPD peak, lol.

That's possible right now when the CDU is led. Y Merkel who is wayyy more appealing to SPD and Green voters than any past CDU leader. Once she steps down and the CDU picks a new leader who is more of a traditional right wing old man, who knows how voting patterns will change
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC