German Elections & Politics

[Peter the Lefty]

Hannelore Kraft: "I will never run for Chancellor."

NO HANNELORE!  We need you!  Please change your mind before 2017, I beg of you!

[Peter the Lefty]

Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.

I sure do hope.  The problem is, even with someone who isn't in the coalition, the SPD is probably headed for a collapse in 2017.  By 2021, Hannelore will be yesterday's news.  At least Manuela Schwesig might be ready by then.

[Peter the Lefty]

Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%

They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.

[Peter the Lefty]

Coming up next:

-Opening of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport postponed to at least 2015, further significant cost increase (says a usually well-informed friend of mine who is civil engineering consultant in Berlin)

Woah, that is one big mess ...

Will it likely impact the state election as well, or is it more about Berlin rather than BB ?

It was Wowereit's pet project, I'm pretty sure.  Frankly, it does seem time for him to go.

[Peter the Lefty]

Depressing poll results.  Anyways, Kretschmann looks like he's in for a fight with the Catholic Church in B-W over the issue of teaching sexual diversity in public school sex-ed classes.  Hope it doesn't do him in in such a conservative state.

[Peter the Lefty]

Anyways, Gabriel is now the undisputed frontrunner for the SPD's candidacy in 2017.

To the Germans here: Any chance Merkel will step down mid-term?  I realize that von der Leyen now appears to be obvious successor.  In which case, it would appear that the current CDU dynasty is set to last at least another 8 years or so.