German Elections & Politics

[Hnv1]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

[Hnv1]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.

I would think their ambition is to be in power not to be a stable runner up...

[Hnv1]

Wahl-o-mat for the Saxony-Anhalt state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/sa2016w/

Die Partei 75
Piraten 65.8
DKP 61.8
Linke 60.5
SPD 60.5
ALFA 53.9
Die Rechte 53.9
AfD 52.6
CDU 52.6
Green 51.3
NPD 51.3
FDP 44.7

not sure what to make of this

[Hnv1]

Why are Greens having a minor bounce lately?

I guess leftist who don't like SPD message about immigration

[Hnv1]

Wonder how CDU\CSU are polling after this last two weeks especially in Bayern

[Hnv1]

My results are somewhat bi-polar and indecisive 
FDP - 57.5
NPD - 57.5 (if my grandfather was alive...)
SPD - 55
AfD - 53.8
greens - 51.3
CDU - 51.3
The left - 47.5

If I were an eligible voter I'd vote SPD

[Hnv1]

How is Gabriel maintaining his hold at leadership considering the sad state of the party at the federal level? Who will be the likely successor?

[Hnv1]

I feel uneasy about the MV state election, because the nasty AfD could actually receive the most votes. Even though I disagree with her on asylum/immigration and other issues, I admire Chancellor Merkel for doing such hard work. She had to react very quickly during the refugee crisis. There are rumours that the CSU tried to persuade her not to seek re-election. If the AfD really becomes the largest party in the MV state parliament, she should follow that advice in the interest of our country.

Is there any CDU or CSU politican at the local or the state level that has discussed or mentioned opentype an cooperation with AfD or is that out of question and tabu even on local and state level?!

State level: No, but it might happen in the future. It depends on whether the AfD will be a short-lived phenomenon or stick around for a longer time. Take The Republicans as an example. They had success as a protest party against the asylum/immigration policy of the government at the time, which many people perceived as too liberal. They entered several state parliaments in the early 90s but faded away because the government changed its policy.

Local level: Yes, there have been joint parliamentary groups of AfD members and members of other parties (e.g. FDP, CDU, SPD) at local level. However, they were all formed before Merkel let the refugees/immigrants who were stuck in Hungary in the country. You should also keep in mind that local politics is more about individuals and less about parties. Let me give you an extreme example: In the town council of Emmerich am Rhein, an FDP member formed a joint parliamentary group with a member of The Left and a member of a local party in 2014.

How is Gabriel maintaining his hold at leadership considering the sad state of the party at the federal level? Who will be the likely successor?

There's a feeling that Anyone Will Lose Against Merkel - and, gaffe-prone and erratic as he is, Gabriel has avoided major scandals or controversies. The likely (post-2017) successor is anybody's guess - odds right now are on Olaf Scholz (Mayor of Hamburg) or Andrea Nahles (Federal Minister of Labour).

You hit the nail on the head! Welcome to the forum.

Well, Scholz and Nahles are both third-wayists, so not much different from Gabriel policy-wise. Scholz is really bland, but extremely popular in Hamburg. I think of him as the Merkel of the SPD. A Merkel vs Scholz debate would be the best cure for insomnia.

I thought Nahles was from the party left

[Hnv1]

Martin Schulz, incumbent President of the European Parliament, is mentioned as possible new foreign minister (and a couple of weeks ago he was also mentioned as a possible chancellor-candidate for the SPD).

Met him when he was in Israel seemed like a sharp bloke, not sure if chancellor material

[Hnv1]

I find this polls hard to swallow, Schultz really had this effect that SPD is now polling 10% more than a month ago? I somehow doubt it

[Hnv1]

Why are the left so strong there compared to other western states?

[Hnv1]

I present to you all 63 minor parties that applied for the Federal Election: http://www.wahlrecht.de/bundestag/2017/
 
My personal highlights: 
"DU: The Urban, A Hip-Hop Party" 
"V-Partei³: Party for Change, Vegetarians and Vegans" 
"Die Violetten: The Violets, For spiritual policy"   
 
I personally thought about voting for "Partei der Humanisten", a center-left party with focus on secularism, science and European federalism. Their tax plans are a little to centrist for me but their foreign policy is much more realistic then those of leftist parties. Unfortunately they are not on the ballot in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. That's why I decided to vote for Die PARTEI once more. I can't stand Die Linke's naive foreign policy and their open relations towards Moscow and by voting for SPD or Grüne I risk to be stirrup holder of Seehofer, Von der Leyen, Schäuble and all those other freaks behind Merkel.

Has Der dritte Wege been banned?

[Hnv1]

Interesting new YouGov poll:

"Should (insert state) secede from Germany and become independent ?"

32% Bayern
22% Thüringen
22% Saarland

(...)

8% each for Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein & Rheinland-Pfalz

http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/bundesland/umfrage-bundeslaender-wollen-raus-aus-deutschland-52565436.bild.html

beautiful numbers. if frau merkel gets another term we could have independent bavaria. that would be great!

LOLno. From what I understand, the German constitution bans secession of a state from the mother (or father)land.

I saw no specific article banning it (and some can be open to interpretation whether they can support such move), but I guess it's a question of imminent vs. positive constitutionalism ala Schmitt v. Kelsen yet again

[Hnv1]

I'm in Berlin for the coming days and there's hardly political thrill in the air. Where I'm staying (Wedding) it's all SPD/Linke

[Hnv1]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

How is it unconstitutional? (Not familiar with the German Constitution)

Because article 16a GG says that persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum. No mention of a limit on how many refugees would be allowed to enter Germany. However, this article could be changed, which is however quite unlikely to happen.

it's a matter of interpretation whether you can read a residual power for the legislature to set some upper limit (I think it does as it is clear through reasonable purposeful interpretation that no such duty would have emerged if 50 million people came). But then I think any cap the CSU will want will be too low.

[Hnv1]

When can we expect results for Lower Saxony?

[Hnv1]

So traffic light?

[Hnv1]

How come no one ever discusses a "Grand Coalition PLUS" arrangement of CDU and SPD and Greens? (not sure what the nickname for that would be)

Kenya?

CSU would be on their back heels against such move

[Hnv1]

Germany's FDP would support a minority Merkel government, Bild reports,

What’s the FDP endgame here? Why would they support a minority government but not become coalition partners?

[Hnv1]

maybe it's time to activate article 48 of the Weimar constitution and have a presidential government

[Hnv1]

Bloomberg news headline: SCHULZ: SPD COALITION W/MERKEL WOULD NEED MEMBER VOTE

SPD membership is probably the most docile in the west. It's going to be another grand coalition then. Shame I wanted the FDP in charge of finance

[Hnv1]

Is there any progress going on?

[Hnv1]

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)

That’s a pretty long time for an interim government. Does the countdown for the next elections start with inauguration of a new government?

[Hnv1]

Is there any progress going on?

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed on a timetable which would finish the government formation by March or early April.

If it fails it will already fail sometime in January though. This is when the major obstacles must be removed, after that it's mostly about working out the details. (Or at least that's the general assumption, keep in mind that two general assumptions have already been proven wrong: 1) There will be a Jamaica coalition, 2) if Jamaica talks fail, there will be a snap election.)

That’s a pretty long time for an interim government. Does the countdown for the next elections start with inauguration of a new government?

You mean when the next regular elections would be held? Still sometime around the September of 2021. The newly elected Bundestag was already constituted back in October and has worked ever since. The interim government which has been in existence since then has worked as sort of a hybrid between a de facto grand coalition and a de facto CDU/CSU minority government.

Why haven’t the SPD used their leverage to force Merkel out?

[Hnv1]

CDU are really pushovers, giving the Foreign, Finance, and Justice ministries to the SPD who are in a bigger pickle than they are...laughing stock.

Shame they didn't keep the Finance ministry away from the hands of Scholz the clown