GA-PPP: Deal unpopular, barely leads Carter.

[publicunofficial]

https://docs.google.com/file/d/1xqouFpbXxiGOPdNqHwZTQxYnzHqOULYq8Md5Kb3ztbppRHBqaoKggZTF5d65/edit?usp=sharing


Nathan Deal's job approval is low, with a 34/41 approval rating. Deal leads Generic Democrat 45/41, and just barely leads State Senator Jason Carter 44/40.

48% said that statements from ethics commission staffers about an effort to destroy documents in Deal's ethics case file were a convincing reason not to vote for the governor, while 37% said it was "not convincing."

[IceSpear]

Didn't the last poll to come out give Deal a high approval rating?

[old timey villain]

I'm surprised by the low numbers for Deal. I haven't heard a lot of complaining about Deal lately, even from liberals in Athens. I think people know he's conservative and a good 'ol boy but he's not provocative enough to be all that polarizing. He'll probably win comfortably in 2014.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Didn't the last poll to come out give Deal a high approval rating?

An Atlanta Journal Constitution poll did. I'm not sure how accurate they are though. Keep in mind, this was a poll commissioned by Better Georgia, a liberal group. The DNC is also coming out with a poll soon by 20-20 Insight, so we'll wait and compare numbers.

[ElectionsGuy]

Still Likely R. I don't know why Deal is unpopular, is there something he did?

[publicunofficial]

Still Likely R. I don't know why Deal is unpopular, is there something he did?

Various ethics concerns, mostly regarding his last campaign for governor and the amount of political contributions he receives.

[pbrower2a]

Watch the news media.  Reporters know things not released to the general public because of the caution of editors. The same political reporters who plugged Barack Obama while a young Senator as a rising star in politics didn't plug Rod Blagojevich as a rising star. The political reporters knew something that the media dared not state about Blagojevich until he tried to sell a Senate seat that wasn't his to sell. 

Politicians with scandals about to erupt usually act secretive, and such is never good for polling. A pol with something to hide usually has compromised approval ratings even before a scandal erupts. People generally dislike secretive behavior by elected officials except when they have obvious excuses (like a war or secret diplomacy).

Governor Nathan Deal has problems if he has an approval rating around 34% even in a State that seems very conservative on the whole. But even with a disapproval rate that Barack Obama would love to have as an improvement (41%), the remaining 25% of potential voters are confused about him. That is itself a bad sign for a politician who should have a high statewide profile.  Just think about it: it takes a 50% vote share in a binary election to win (just ignore ineffective or irrelevant third-party nominees), and Deal will need to take his 34% approval rating up to a 50% vote share to be re-elected.  Nathan Deal will need to pick up 16% of 25% of people who cannot say whether they approve or disapprove -- a bad position for an incumbent. Incumbents usually pick up 7% or so of the vote share from early approval ratings.   

2010 demonstrated that in a wave election, liberal incumbents can lose elections in districts and states that ordinarily offer them an advantage in 50-50 nationwide elections. 2006 demonstrated that in a wave election, conservative incumbents can lose to liberals. 2014 is more likely to resemble 2006 than 2010.

At this moment, Republicans project to have a bad year in 2014. Democrats who won Senate seats in 2008 project at the least to face tight races; meanwhile the Senate Minority Whip has his work cut out for him in an R-leaning state. If Tom Daschle and Rick Santorum could lose in a wave election, then so can Mitch McConnell.     

[Adam Griffin]

Still Likely R. I don't know why Deal is unpopular, is there something he did?

Various ethics concerns, mostly regarding his last campaign for governor and the amount of political contributions he receives.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This doesn't mention the ethics commission members who were fired as a result of political bias. After the fact, he appointed his own guys and had them change the rules to where if someone files an ethics case against the Governor and his hand-picked commission rules against the complaint, that they have to pay the associated costs of the case.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/09/nathan-deal-personal-agendas-complicate-ethics-age/

[Bacon King]

Still Likely R. I don't know why Deal is unpopular, is there something he did?

Various ethics concerns, mostly regarding his last campaign for governor and the amount of political contributions he receives.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This doesn't mention the ethics commission members who were fired as a result of political bias. After the fact, he appointed his own guys and had them change the rules to where if someone files an ethics case against the Governor and his hand-picked commission rules against the complaint, that they have to pay the associated costs of the case.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/09/nathan-deal-personal-agendas-complicate-ethics-age/

There's also the fact that the FBI is actively investigating the situation

[GAworth]

I hope it is a closer race.