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  WV-Harper(R): Capito looking good in primary, general (search mode)
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Author Topic: WV-Harper(R): Capito looking good in primary, general  (Read 378 times)
ElectionsGuy
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Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

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« on: October 15, 2013, 05:16:33 pm »

That's an even bigger lead than I expected. Statistics seem pretty accurate, other than the "12% black" typo. Does this race deserve a "Likely R" rating? Or still Lean R?
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ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,611
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2013, 06:30:16 pm »

That's an even bigger lead than I expected. Statistics seem pretty accurate, other than the "12% black" typo. Does this race deserve a "Likely R" rating? Or still Lean R?

Sabato and I think Rothenberg have it as Lean R, no idea what Cook has it as.

Tennant is the underdog, but short of cloning Joe Manchin she's the best candidate the Dems could have landed; and this race could definitely close up if Tennant gets her name recognition up and/or the House GOP's unpopularity begins to affect Capito.

That could definitely happen. Her name recognition on the other hand is close to Capito's (about 35% vs. 25% unknown). Its actually quite sad that the best democratic candidate in West Virginia out of all places is trailing a republican by 17 points. If Tennant loses by more than 10 points I think West Virginia will have officially hit its turning point for ANY democrat at the federal level (Besides Manchin, who I think will be good as long as he keeps doing what he's doing). WV-3 will be interesting to watch next year as well as its in the heart of coal country, but I think that seat is fine until Rahall retires.
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