Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 21, 2019, 07:32:55 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls  (Read 3601 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,742
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 16, 2013, 12:03:02 pm »

6 of them were conducted for "Americans United for Change", while the SD poll as done for "People for Weiland".

AR:

Mark Pryor ...................................................... 44%
Tom Cotton ..................................................... 41%

GA:

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 42%
Republican opponent ...................................... 42%

IA:

Bruce Braley ................................................... 45%
Republican opponent ...................................... 41%

LA:

Mary Landrieu................................................. 48%
Bill Cassidy ..................................................... 41%

MI:

Gary Peters..................................................... 43%
Terri Lynn Land ............................................... 36%

NC:

Kay Hagan...................................................... 47%
Republican opponent ...................................... 42%

All of these polls were conducted among registered voters on October 14th and 15th on
behalf of Americans United for Change. 955 were interviewed in Arkansas with a margin
error of +/-3.2%. 707 were interviewed in Georgia with a margin error of +/-3.7%. 634
were interviewed in Iowa with a margin error of +/-3.9%. 632 were interviewed in
Louisiana with a margin error of +/-3.9%. 642 were interviewed in Michigan with a
margin error of +/-3.9%. 837 were interviewed in North Carolina with a margin error of
+/-3.4%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf

SD:

Mike Rounds................................................... 40%
Rick Weiland................................................... 34%
Kurt Evans ...................................................... 11%

PPP surveyed 882 South Dakota voters from October 10th-13th on behalf of People for Weiland. The margin of error is +/-3.3%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_SD_1016.pdf
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,422
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2013, 12:14:06 pm »

As usual Generic Republican represents the best case for Republicans.

Also, why Rounds's numbers are so soft? I thought he was almost as popular as Hoeven.
And before anyone says anything about PPP, this isn't the first poll that shows him with rather underwhelming support and his camp hasn't published any of their own numbers to refute them.
Logged
PolitiJunkie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,126


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2013, 12:14:20 pm »

Jesus Christ. Even in a poll called "People for Weiland," there is no reason Rounds should be up by SIX POINTS. Also, why is the libertarian getting 11%? The rest of these are unsurprising. Since Generic R/D generally outperforms the names of specific candidates, Nunn is probably up on Gingrey/Kingston/Handel/Broun by 3 or 4, especially since the word "Republican opponent" is viewed favorably in Georgia, more so than either of those four names for sure.
Logged
PolitiJunkie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,126


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2013, 12:16:26 pm »

Also, why the HELL did they not poll Montana? I think that most of us would have liked to have seen that over any of these races aside from maybe Arkansas.
Logged
punching violence in the face
SawxDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,526
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2013, 12:23:57 pm »
« Edited: October 16, 2013, 12:27:57 pm by Grimes/2 Chainz 2016 »

Also, why the HELL did they not poll Montana? I think that most of us would have liked to have seen that over any of these races aside from maybe Arkansas.

Daines hasn't formally declared yet.

Rapid reactions:
  • There's good news in AR for Republicans - although Pryor is leading, the shutdown doesn't seem to be affecting Cotton that much at all. His background and his conservatism seem to be propping him up despite what he's done.
  • If you're GOP and in Georgia, you better be praying for Handel at this point. She's the only candidate who's conservative enough to win but not be crazy, and she's distanced from the insanity of Congress. If opinion holds and Broun or Gingrey get the nom, Nunn has a strong chance because of her last name.
  • All quiet in IA - Republicans still have a lot of ground to make up here.
  • Still good news in LA for the GOP - voters are still less likely to vote for Landrieu over the shutdown, and even though she breaks 50%, that'll come down
  • A real poll for MI where Peters stomps Land as I thought. Not a close race at all.
  • NC seems to still Lean D because of Hagan, but voters are still less likely to support her because of the shutdown too. If the right Republican gets nominated, then they can hold this seat.
  • I highly doubt that a popular former Governor is only up by six on an unknown, and the fact that the libertarian broke double digits right away makes me wonder. Although it's by one of the most accurate pollsters, even I think this is too optimistic.
Logged
PolitiJunkie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,126


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2013, 12:25:42 pm »

Also, here are the results after the voters are told that the Republican candidate supported or the Democratic candidate opposed the shutdown:

Mark Pryor ...................................................... 45%
Tom Cotton ..................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%      Pryor +3 ---> Pryor +3: NO CHANGE
 
Michelle Nunn ................................................. 48%
Republican opponent ...................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%       Tie ---> Nunn + 6

Bruce Braley ................................................... 46%
Republican opponent ...................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%        Braley +4 ---> Braley +7

Mary Landrieu.................................................52%
Bill Cassidy ..................................................... 42%
Not sure.......................................................... 6%            Landrieu +7 ---> Landrieu +10

Gary Peters..................................................... 50%
Terri Lynn Land ............................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%         Peters +7 ---> Peters + 14

Kay Hagan ...................................................... 49%
Republican opponent ...................................... 41%
Notsure.......................................................... 9%             Hagan +5 ---> Hagan +8
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,559
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2013, 12:34:47 pm »


Arkansas's really jumped the shark.
Logged
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,275
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2013, 12:41:02 pm »


Yup.  Arkansas just ain't Arkansas anymore.  It will be another Kansas or Oklahoma until Obama's out of office.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,053
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2013, 12:41:09 pm »

I would be really surprised at this point if Pryor is able to hang on.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,734
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2013, 12:47:39 pm »

I'm in agreement with Sawx, except GA in any scenario where the 2 crazies aren't nominated.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,851
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2013, 01:18:10 pm »

Well,
Pryor up by 3 points: good news. If he manages to avoid a nationalization of this race, Cotton would lose because of his vote on farm bills and student loans. But if Cottons manages to nationalize this race, he's toast.
It's a pure toss up I guess, but I continue to believe Pryor is slighty a favorite.

For the other races: not a surprise, except for South Dakota where I don't understand, Round is a popular governor: Likely Rep, he should lead by a 10-15 points margin!
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,455
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2013, 02:10:58 pm »

I'm ignoring that SD poll,  its obviously biased.  Otherwise things look pretty good for Democrats, though I'm very worried about AR.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,559
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2013, 04:04:21 pm »

Don't worry guys, the NRSC has come to the rescue and unskewed these polls for us. It turns out they're actually GREAT news for Republicans.

http://www.nrsc.org/blog/ppp-shows-gop-strength-in-senate-but-still-hasnt-learned-their-lesson
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2013, 04:11:05 pm »

Lucky for us shutdown happened the senate especially Pryor, Begich and Landrieu would have been lost.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 44,017
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2013, 04:32:30 pm »

Rounds was never on par with Hoever. He was expected to be about on par with Johanns.
Logged
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,665
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2013, 04:35:20 pm »

If Nunn's tying a Generic R....that says a lot. Hagan looking good if she's ahead by 5 with the Generic R.

Calling bullsh**t on the SD numbers, and the Arkansas numbers worry me if Pryor can't get a bump from the shutdown.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,762
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2013, 05:01:59 pm »

Georgia will come around.

But at least Democrats have a rebuttal for the Obama boogieman now, even in right-leaning states apparently.
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,030
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2013, 05:33:05 pm »

Don't worry guys, the NRSC has come to the rescue and unskewed these polls for us. It turns out they're actually GREAT news for Republicans.

http://www.nrsc.org/blog/ppp-shows-gop-strength-in-senate-but-still-hasnt-learned-their-lesson

They say that the Georgia/Iowa polls are invalid because Rothenberg said that testing against Generic R/D is a bad idea, but they don't get the point of that Rothenberg column.

Rothenberg said Generic R OUTperforms actual candidates, not the other way around.
Logged
Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,542
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2013, 05:39:24 pm »

Lucky for us shutdown happened the senate especially Pryor, Begich and Landrieu would have been lost.
Pryor would've been lost. Landrieu and Begich were and still are popular, as well as gain a lot of crossover support.
Logged
PolitiJunkie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,126


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2013, 06:03:23 pm »

Don't worry guys, the NRSC has come to the rescue and unskewed these polls for us. It turns out they're actually GREAT news for Republicans.

http://www.nrsc.org/blog/ppp-shows-gop-strength-in-senate-but-still-hasnt-learned-their-lesson

This article is absolutely hilarious. Not only do they make the absurd claim that Generic R/D UNDERPERFORMS the actual candidates, but they also try to invalidate Michigan's PPP poll by citing the EPIC-MRA and MIRSNews polls that have been proven massively junky. I love this. I'm sure they said the same thing in 2012.
Logged
Priest of Moloch
sjoycefla
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,011
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.48, S: -4.87

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2013, 06:39:40 pm »

On Weiland: there are several issues that may be causing these results. The most obvious is biased polling/inclusion of a libertarian who'll suck votes from Rounds. Additionally, though, Rounds has been publicly pro-shutdown/default while Weiland has been very anti-shutdown, which lets Weiland hit Rounds on the farm bill, social security, veterans benefits, etc. But more importantly (there was an NPR report on this, otherwise I'd have had no idea, hasn't gotten a lot of news coverage) there was a massive blizzard in western South Dakota a week or two ago, with tens thousands of cattle dead. There's been basically no response because of the government shutdown, which Weiland (as a former FEMA director) can use.
Logged
badgate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,484


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2013, 10:23:17 pm »

Seriously, has Andy Borowitz infiltrated the NRSC?
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,632
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2013, 01:08:16 am »

These all look good except for South Dakota. I'm actually quite concerned about LA, Bill Cassidy has got to do something to make his republican base (more moderate white voters) come home. Unfortunately, they didn't poll Alaska, which I would like to see a PPP poll on. And for South Dakota, Rounds leading by ONLY 6 POINTS. Sorry, but I'm not buying that.
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2013, 07:20:03 am »

Also, why the HELL did they not poll Montana? I think that most of us would have liked to have seen that over any of these races aside from maybe Arkansas.

Daines hasn't formally declared yet.

Rapid reactions:
  • Still good news in LA for the GOP - voters are still less likely to vote for Landrieu over the shutdown, and even though she breaks 50%, that'll come down

Just because I'm curious--how is this poll good news for the GOP in Louisiana? Almost every poll of this race has shown a Landrieu lead of between 2% and 10%, and this is right in line with those.
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,361
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2013, 09:40:03 am »

New Poll: South Dakota Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-10-13

Summary: D: 34%, R: 40%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC