The Clean Air and Water Act Vetoed-An Alternate 1988 Election

[PBrunsel]

On February 4th, 1987, President Ronald Reagan vetoed the Clean Air and Water Act. After much struggle in Congress both for and against this, this veto is upheld by Congress, but the vote is close. In the Senate the vote is 51-49 with one abstention from Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa. This is a major blow to the environmentalist movement in the United States. Especially angered is well known Consumer Activist Ralph Nader (D-CA).

Prompted by the successful veto of the Clean Air and Water Act, Ralph Nader declares his candidacy for the Democratic Nomination for President on April 13th, 1987. He swears that his campaign will be run focusing on environmental issues such as finding alternative fuels, a new Clean Air and Water Act, and tougher punishments for businesses that pollute the air or oceans. To the surprise of many a pundit, Nader polls well in the first Gallup Poll taken in the 1988 Race for President:

Sen. Gary Hart: 39%
Gov. Michael Dukakis: 28%
Activist Ralph Nader: 22%
Sen. Albert Gore: 9%
Sen. Joe Biden: 2%

Other candidates (such as Jesse Jackson, Dick Gephardt, and Paul Simon pulled too low to be considered)

Nader stood little chance of defeating popular Senator Gary Hart though. Hart was the clear frontrunner and most pundits believed he would win in a walk. This was until May 5th, 1987, when the “Donna Rice Affair” broke. Indeed the charismatic Hart was involved in a premarital affair with supermodel Donna Rice, and to make matters worse they had spent the night on a yacht called, how ironic, the Monkey Business. Hart was ruined. His lead in the polls sunk, and on May 8th, 1987, he dropped out of the race. Nader was helped by this in the polls, but luck would help him once again in his bid for the nomination.

Soon after Hart dropped out of the race the Nader Campaign focused on Joe Biden. Although polling just on the 2% line in most polls, he was taking away some environmentalist voters from Nader. Despite the May 10th endorsement from former Governor Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown, Nader’s campaign workers still felt they had not established enough dirt on Biden. So on June 1st, 1987, two Nader campaign workers (a Ms. Wynona LaDuke and former Presidential candidate David McReynolds) slipped under the door of the editorialist department in the New York Times building a copy of a recent speech made by Biden and one made by British Labour party leader Neil Kinnock. The two were nearly identical, and all over the newspapers the next day Biden was accused of plagarism. Worse yet it was proven he committed plagarism in law school. So a week later Biden left the race. One by one Nader’s Raders were knowcking off Democratic candidates, and most of it came by luck. When LaDuke and and McReynolds slipped those records under the door they wanted one scandal, but it triggered a chain reaction against all the Democratic candidates, but Nader. Jesse Jackson was found to have been engaged in an affair, so he had to drop out and endorsed Nader. Biden endorsed Nader. Nader was building much political capital as the Iowa Caucus approached.

[PBrunsel]

On February 8th, 1988, Iowans voted. While Senator Bob Dole won the Iowa Caucus for Republicans, the Democratic one was close. Representative Gephardt won, but in a close race with Nader:

Dick Gephardt: 35.2%
Ralph Nader: 34.8%
Paul Simon: 21.3%
Michael Dukakis: 7.5%
Others: 1.2%

This close race played well for Nader, as he entered New Hampshire he had a challenge ahead of him. Defeating Dukakis, a popular Governor from nearby Massachusettes, would be no easy task. So Nader focused on his campaign theme: the enviornment. He ran in television ads and stated in speeches that Boston Harbor was described as an “open sewer” by the Boston Times. “Can we trust this type of enviornmental mistake with every harbor in America?’ Nader would ask his crowds. A debate held in nashua, New Hampshire, on February 15th, 1988, a day before the primary, the “Second Nashua Massacre” would occur when Nader released the shocking proof that Dukakis knew what would occur if he did not act to clean the harbor in 1986, but he chose to ignore it. “He did this to let businessmen put money in his pocket for his campaings,” Nader said. These attacks hurt Dukakis’s campaign immensly, and the next day Nader won an upset victory:

Ralph Nader: 39.5%
Michael Dukakis: 32.4%
Dick Gephardt: 14.1%
Al Gore: 12.7%
Others:  1.3%

Nader would ride his upset victory to the fullest. He humiliated Gephardt in the South Dakota Primary, winning 55% of the vote to Gephardt’s 33% and Dukakis’s 12%. Nader’s campaign was now a crusade, a crusade for enviornmental and consumer protection. Young voters (ages 18-22) were as energized by Nader as they were by Gene McCarthy in 1968. Nader lead his closest rivals, Gore and Dukakis, in all the polling. He ended the “Duke Dukakis”’s hopes after a stunning win on Super Tuesday. One by one his opponents dropped out:

Dick Gephardt on March 8th, after doing abysmal on Super Tuesday.

Paul Simon on March 16th, after losing out to Nader in his home state of Illinois’s primary.

Finally Dukakis on April 1st, after losing the Conneticut Primary in a route.

Nader’s only oppnent left was Senator Gore. Gore was a strong campaigner. A moderate Southerner, he had won several Southern Primaries on Super Tueday and had came in a strong second to Nader in Wisconsin on April 5th. Nader needed an issue to sink Gore. The issue was abortion. Nader was a firm pro-choice proponent, and this made him the darling of the leftist feminists. Gore never took a stand on tat issue during the campaign, and he deemed it trivial. The crucial New York Primary was approaching on April 19th, and it was sink or swim for the Gore Campaign. But Nader persisted when it came to abortion, and Gore continued to waffle. He said on April 15th, “I feel abortion should be left to the states to decide.” But when asked if Roe v. Wade was an encroachment on state’s rights Gore waffled again and said it was not. This would come back to haunt him as Nader’s Raiders ran an ad called “Waffle Anyone?’ in which waffles are dropped on a plate for every waffle Gore made on abortion. It ended, “Al Gore, the Waffle Chef of 1988.” Accused of flip-flopping sunk Gore, and on April 19th he met a sound defeat by Nader:

Ralph Nader: 55.2%
Al Gore: 41.5%
Others:  3.3%

Gore was sunk by this defeat. Nader went on to wrap up the nomination after a big win in the Pennsylvania Primary on April 26th. Nader now went running mate hunting.

[PBrunsel]

                                      1988 Democratic Primaries


Ralph Nader (D-CA)
Al Gore (D-TN)
Michael Dukakis or Dick Gephardt*

*Gephardt won only Iowa before he dropped out of the race.

[PBrunsel]

Who to be his running mate? Nader had to choose a person from a different region, and it would help the left-wing candidate to get a moderate. The choices were listed:

1.   Senator Al Gore (TN)
2.   Senator Lloyd Bentsen (TX)
3.   Gov. Ann Richards (TX)
4.   Senator John Kerry (MA)
5.   Gov. Bill Clinton (AR)
6.   Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO)
7.   Gov. Mario Cuomo (NY)
8.   Sen. Tom Harkin (IA)

After careful consideration:

1.   Al Gore would stay on the “Final 3” list.
2.   Bentsen was an oil man, and this would hurt Nader’s environmentalist image, he was dropped.
3.   Richards was seen as somewhat of a bitter Governor and dropped because she could be a liability.
4.   Kerry shared most of Nader’s liberal ideas, so he would make no new base. He was dropped.
5.   Clinton was a charismatic Southerner, he was kept for the “Final 3.”
6.   Gephardt could add labor and experience to the ticket. He was kept for the “Final 3”
Cuomo and Harkin were much like Nader when it came to their politics, so they were dropped. The search for a Vice President began with a phone call to the Governor’s Office in Little Rock. Governor Clinton said that he would love to be Nader’s running mate. Known as a Centrist and from a Southern state, Clinton was a fresh face and perfectly acceptable to the Democratic Leadership, who were not crazy about Nader. Gore, still angry over the “Waffle” ad said he did not want to be Vice President. Gephardt (“Only on the ‘Final 3’ to have a third person,” joked Nader Campaign worker former Cleveland Mayor Dennis Kucinich), was not interested on being on any ticket with Nader turned them down. It was going to be Nader-Clinton 1988 for the Democratic Party.

On July 18th, 1988, the Democratic National Convention began in Atlanta, Georgia. Keynote speakers would accuse Republican nominee, Vice President George H. W. Bush, of several things but true and crazy, but Nader was worried about Clinton. Clinton seemed nervous. He had quite a long speech prepared to give the Convention, and Nader did not like it at all. “This speech drags on and on,” Nader told Clinton, “I’ll get my guys to write you a new one.” Peter Camejo, a well known labor leader, and Jerry Brown wrote Clinton a speech that confined within it a message about looking out for the working poor. “For all you out there who work from paycheck to paycheck,” Clinton told the Convention on July 20th, “Ralph Nader is you man, he feels your pain. His parents were poor Lebanese immigrants, and he worked his way through Harvard Law School. He is your man, George Bush is the rich man’s man.” Clinton’s speech is hailed as a monumental success. Even successful keynoter Mario Cuomo admitted, “Clinton’s speech outdoes mine by a long shot.”

On July 21st, Ralph Nader accepted the Democratic Nomination for President. In his acceptance address, Nader stressed the theme of his campaign even more; “President Reagan, Vice President Bush, and their cronies feel that the environment will keep itself clean. Reagan even says that trees cause more pollution than factories. Well it’s time we tell the Gipper that this is not a movie, and that there is real pollution, real oil shortages, and real change is needed in our fight to protect the environment!”

[ATFFL]

51-49 is not real close to overturning a presidential veto.

Other than that, this is great.

[Akno21]

How can the vote be 51-49 if Grassley abstained? That means there are 101 Senators.

Other than that, looks great.

[TomC]

Hart's affair was "extramarital" and Ann Richards wasn't governor until 1991. In 1988 she was Treasurer and expected to win gov in 1990.

Also, an aside: I think Clinton intentionally was boring in 1988 keynote to make Dukakis seem, well, among the living.

[PBrunsel]

Hart's affair was "extramarital" and Ann Richards wasn't governor until 1991. In 1988 she was Treasurer and expected to win gov in 1990.

Also, an aside: I think Clinton intentionally was boring in 1988 keynote to make Dukakis seem, well, among the living.

I knew I madee a mistake with Richards. Should of did a little more research I guess.

[ilikeverin]

NADER/CLINTON '88!!!

I would have been born under a Nader administration if he won

[DanielX]

Nader/Clinton loses, badly, to Bush/Kemp. Heck, even Bush/Quayle.

[Max Power]

How can the vote be 51-49 if Grassley abstained? That means there are 101 Senators.

What is a Vice President?

[PBrunsel]

I intend on finishing this very soon.

[PBrunsel]

Nader-Clinton 1988 began the general election running far behind Bush-Quale. The Bush Campaign’s primary goal was to portray Nader as a far-left winged hippy who would ruin the economy by ending business to save a tree and raise taxes on everyone to protect a geyser in Montana. The most recognizable attack ad when it came to Nader’s environmental stances was the notorious “Little Rock Landfill” ad in which the Bush Campaign stung Governor Clinton’s lack of environmental protection in the Little Rock landfill problems. Nader still was seen as the environmentalist candidate as the non-partisan League of Conservation Voters endorsed him and the Sierra Club.

“We’ve got to get a new issue!” declared “Nader ‘88” Campaign Official Paul Wellstone, a former aide in the “Jesse Jackson 1984” Campaign. This new issue came from an unlikely source; Saddam Hussein and his regime in Iraq. “The Republican Administration likes to talk about America being ‘a force that marches to freedom,’ or some empty platitude like that,” Nader scathed in a campaign rally in Kansas City, Missouri, “Yet the Reagan-Bush Administration continues to have a ‘friendly relation’ with Saddam Hussein’s regime of horror in Iraq.” Nader would attack President Reagan for, “Fighting against Soviet evils against humankind, but arming Hussein and his minions.” “Politics makes strange bedfellows,” Nader cried, “A World War II pilot who fought against a dictator and a Butcher from Baghdad who has had his own mass genocide!” The Bush Campaign attacked Nader for, “Angering our allies to strengthen our enemies.” Bush declared, “Nader is slippin’ and slidin’ all over our allies.” What did this mean? No one could tell. It gave Dana Carvey at least another skit on the 1988 Season of Saturday Night Live.

The first of the 1988 Presidential Debates was held on October 8th, 1988, most assumed Nader would go off on an environmental tangent and look like some crazy hippy on stage. He surprised all. He answered questions asked to him by Sam Donaldson with a great deal of respect and courtesy, and even donned a clean suit and tie for the occasion (as he usually wore a simply dress shirt and khakis at his campaign rallies). His final statement was what made some people stop think about what the Bush Campaign was: “In this debate, even in this entire campaign, all I have heard from Vice-President Bush is the same old platitudes. These Peggy Noonan one-liners are all the same empty words from Mr. Bush, who appears like a man in a suit. Lee Atwater gives him the attacks ads, Peggy gives him the one liners, and Ronald Reagan gives him what his campaign lacks; any ties to people at all. My campaign is not about such silly things as flag burning or the ACLU; it’s about issues that matter. It’s about having clean air to breathe, and clean water to drink. It’s about holding companies accountable for polluting our lands, and about securing the rights of free speech in both the United States, and the world.”

 “Nader actually appeared Presidential last night,” a shocked Sam Donaldson reported. His great performance in the debate had the last Gallup Poll at:

Bush-Quayle: 45%
Nader-Clinton: 42%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 12%
MoE: 3%

This would be the closest the team would get to victory, for what happened next would undo Nader’s hopes for the Oval Office.

The day after the second Presidential Debate, October 26th, 1988, the Nader Campaign headquarters in Hartford, Connecticut, was in an upheaval! That morning an organization known as “Real People for Real Change” had released Nader’s ties to the Hartford Fire Insurance Company, a known partner of Midland Petroleum, currently on trial for drilling for oil in a nature preserve. Nader’s organization “Public Citizens, Inc.” was a direct beneficiary from the Hartford Fire Insurance Company’s stock, worth a pretty penny. Nader was accused of not releasing his financial ties, and his polls plummeted. His image of an environmentalist was harmed, but more importantly, his image as a person who made all his money off of individual charity and without corporate help was all but destroyed. “The campaign is over,” declared Clinton, “We can’t pull out of this one.”

To everyone’s surprise, Nader continued to campaign hard. From October 27th-November 2nd, 1988, nadir barnstormed the nation. He tore at Bush’s “say anything to win” campaign. “You could run a helium balloon and it wouldn’t let off as much hot air as Bush has in this campaign,” nadir joked in Detroit, Michigan. “You’ve got to hand it to the guy,” Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) said a few days before Election Day, “He’s a fighter.” “Give em’ Hell Ralph!” a supporter yelled at Nader as he left the speaker’s platform in Pensacola, Florida. “I intend to do that until I either collapse from exhaustion, or they get me,” Nader hollered back.

Election Day did come, but Nader-Clinton was still trailing in most polls by 6-10%. The insurgent campaign of Nader’s had not been a repeat of George McGovern’s in 1972, to the surprise of the Washington establishment. Nader and Clinton waited in Hartford, Connecticut, for the results. No one could quite be sure what would happen.

[PBrunsel]

At 8:00 p.m. the first results came in, and to no one’s surprise:



Bush had only broken 55% in Indiana and in Kentucky won only 53%, so perhaps there was some hope for Nader’s campaign.

Bush-Quale (R): 19 Electoral Votes
Nader-Clinton (D): 0 Electoral Votes

By 8:30 the results from four more states were in:



Bush-Quale (R): 53 Electoral Votes
Nader-Clinton (D): 28 Electoral Votes

[YRABNNRM]

Very interesting...

[ilikeverin]

NA-DER!  NA-DER!  NA-DER!

[Bacon King]

update!

[George W. Hobbes]

Bush-Quayle with a handy victory, Bush finishes the job in Iraq in the Gulf War to prevent Nader's remarks from snipping at his heels in 1992, and he crushes Clinton to win re-election.

[Defarge]

"Prepare for the coup of a century"
http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/nader.php

[PBrunsel]

By 9:00 p.m.:



Bush-Quale (R): 77 Electoral Votes
Nader-Clinton (D): 87 Electoral Votes

The Nader Campaign was ecstatic. They won 61% of the vote in New York and even took Maryland against all odds.

By 9:30 p.m.:



Bush-Quale (R): 109 Electoral Votes
Nader-Clinton (D): 98 Electoral Votes

Nader’s win in Clinton’s Arkansas was still disputed when it was called by CBS News. Nader was hoping for a win in the state of Illinois, still a close state.

[PBrunsel]

By 10:00:



Bush-Quale (R): 199 Electoral Votes
Nader-Clinton (D): 140 Electoral Votes

“Amazing!” declared Peter Jennings as he reported the returns, “Ralph Nader, just a year ago looked upon as a joke nominee, has actually made this a competitive race.” Nader’s wins in Wisconsin and Illinois were paper thin though. He had taken only 49.2% of the vote in Wisconsin and in Illinois he had won by just 12,000 votes.

By 10:30 p.m., the more Conservative states were finally being called, thus stopping Nader’s momentum:



Bush-Quale (R): 255 Electoral Votes
Nader-Clinton (D): 179 Electoral Votes

A huge upset win in Pennsylvania had the Nader Headquarters in a riot! A huge (and somewhat questionable) voter turnout in Philadelphia had put Nader over the top with 51.1% of the vote to Bush’s 48.7% (with .2% to Ron Paul and other candidates). The win in Nevada was expected as was his win in Washington. Bush was within striking distance of the Presidency however. Times were still down in Hartford.

 But hope was still there. Colorado, Missouri, Michigan, and, surprisingly, Alaska were extremely close. New Jersey might even be won (but it was a long shot). California was the big prize however. Nader had campaigned extensively there, and hoped (and expected) to win it.

At 12:35 a.m. some of the more disputed states could be called, and it did not go well for Nader:



Bush-Quale (R): 307 Electoral Votes
Nader-Clinton (D): 245 Electoral Votes

It was devastating for Nader. With a win in New Jersey bush was put over the 270 margin, and thus elected President of the United States. But to the surprise of many, such states as Alaska and Montana had voted for Nader. His pro-environment message mixed with his “Washington Outsider” persona had appealed to enough people to win him two states no one expected him to take.

By 1:15 a.m. the last two states could be called:



George Bush-Dan Quale (R): 327 Electoral Votes; 53% of the Popular Vote
Ralph Nader/Bill Clinton (D): 253 Electoral Votes; 46% of the Popular Vote

(1% went to other nominees)

[PBrunsel]

At 1:25 a.m. Nader made his concession speech from Hartford, Connecticut. He declared that, “The fight for a clean environment does not end tonight. Neither does the fight to end the pet dictators that belong to Reagan and Bush. Neither does the battle against AIDS and for affordable colleges and housing. The fight will always go on.”

“We can not give the corporate elite control of the government. We are a government by the people, of the people, and for the people; not for the monied or special interests.”

Ralph Nader would continue to be active in politics for years. He wrote a best selling biography on his 1988 Campaign for President; “Dispatches from the Front”, and managed the campaign of Jerry Brown for President in 1992. BY 1992, however, President Bush was unpopular, and he was replaced by Senator Bob Kerrey oif Nebraska and Sam Nunn of Georgia on November 3rd, 1992. Clinton was unable to shake the defeat four years earlier and win the nomination. “The Calm Down Kid” was his awful nickname, coming from when he began a passionate attack against Kerrey at a debate in Nashua, New Hampshire. The outburst was caused by Kerrey questioning Clinton’s “moderate” stands after running with the liberal Nader.

In an ironic twist of fate, Nader got a job in the Kerrey Administration (and Bill Clinton was appointed to the Supreme Court in 1993). He served as Secretary of Commerce from 1993-1997. During this time he broke up several monopolies in the oil and transportation businesses. In 1997 he was appointed to head the EPA, a job he would have until replaced by Christine Todd-Whitman in 2001.

Ralph Nader had led a crusade for the environment in 1988. His campaign continues to energize young liberals from Maine to Alaska. His campaign was an honest and effective one. It offered no gimmicks, no quick talk, and no crazy promises. His was the last of the “people funded” campaigns.

                           THE END
                           

[Michael Z]

Great stuff PBrunsel, I really enjoyed reading this. Just a shame Nader lost.

But it's an interesting idea, taking one relatively "minor" vote in the Congress and basing an entirely new timeline on it. Kinda makes you realise how fickle history can be sometimes.

[YRABNNRM]

Good read! I hope you write another timeline soon!

[George W. Hobbes]

Good show PB!  I loved it!