Applying the cube root rule for state houses

[Damocles]

The cube root rule is an often-proposed constitutional amendment, which would fix the size of the US House of Representatives to the whole number closest to the cube root of the sum of all state populations, as measured at the most recent decennial census.

Though this amendment is often applied in the context of the US House, I was curious as to the effect on the number of state house seats in each state - which often gets ignored.

So, I fired up my spreadsheet application and entered in the population of each state, using 2010 US census data. I then took the cube root of every state population, to yield the number of state legislative seats required in each state. I then divided the state's population by its number of legislative seats, to yield the average population per seat ratio.

This process yielded a total of 8,256 state house seats. California had the most seats (334), while Wyoming had the least (83). The population to seat ratio varied from 6,823:1 in Wyoming, to 111,545:1 in California.

I don't have the advanced software or computing power required for drawing individual districts for the state legislatures that would be constituted with these rules, but I can append the original data tables for your viewing. Use the spoilers to view them. They are ordered by population, as of the 2010 census.

California through Colorado

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Alabama through Montana

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Delaware through Wyoming

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Feel free to view your state and create a district map of your own, if you have the resources and are so inclined. If requested by popular demand, I can also create a corresponding table for the District of Columbia and the various territories.

[OBD]

Detailed Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/048df054-079c-46e0-ba98-cb19a0ddf3bd
Here's a quick draw of Oregon. Some observations off the bat - while the Portland Metro is a verifable cluster of districts, as expected, the Eugene and Salem areas also have numerous compact districts as well. With so many districts, partisanship is very well reflected by this map - Democratic strength is based in Portland, Eugene, Salem, Corvallis, and numerous other liberal enclaves, while Republicans dominate the East, South and scattered rurals in the Northwest of the state.

Utilizing 2016 numbers, there are 54 Solidly Republican Districts, 73 Solidly Democratic Districts, and 28 competitive districts - with a majority consisting of 79 seats, the ORGOP is thus within somewhat striking distance of a legislative majority. However, the tipping-point districts are still significantly Democratic (note: 2018 Gov results used):

92nd District (Wilsonville+exurbs): Clinton +7.8, Buehler +7.9, PVI R+0.9
57th District (79th Republican Seat) (Majority-Minority East Salem burbs): Clinton +7.7, Brown +9.9, PVI D+4
98th District (79th Democratic Seat) (Downtown Oregon City, Gladstone, Clackamas Heights): Clinton +7.1, Brown +1.6, PVI D+2.71
4th District (Pacific City, Lincoln City, Depoe Bay - North Central Coast): Clinton +7.1, Brown +9.9, PVI D+5

While the 79th Republican Seat is 4 points right of the state, it's still a significiant lift for the ORGOP, though their performance could be amplified by taking ancestrally Republican districts (e.g. Wilsonville, West Linn, Sherwood) in the southern Portland burbs.

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is Wyoming, which was a massive pain as every district is literally only a handful of precincts. Especially painful were the major population centres as the precincts often have detached parts. In fact there are some non-contiguous districts here but I do not think it is possible to do 100% contiguous districts here



https://davesredistricting.org/join/15db0fce-2b28-4051-baf8-fcd448617df7

Anyways, using 2016 numbers the map has:

7 Safe Democratic districts (the 4 Teton County districts, 1 Native American district in Fremont County and 2 districts in downtown Laramie)
3 competitive districts (the remaining 2 districts in Laramie and 1 district in downtown Cheyenne)
73 Safe Republican districts (everything else)

District 75 might be an accidental Native American pack (it's 85% Native), so maybe 2 Native American districts are needed there instead of 1 (I did not look at partisan or racial data)

[Stuart98]

Here's Utah (with 148 districts, based on the 2019 population estimate)



42 districts voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 106 voted for Donald Trump. DRA considers 21 of them to be competitive, with 14 of them Hillary districts and 7 of them Trump districts.

EDIT: Revised slightly to increase road connectivity within districts.

[Gracile]

I'm working on one for IL that I might post later.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Here's Utah (with 148 districts, based on the 2019 population estimate)
42 districts voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 106 voted for Donald Trump. DRA considers 21 of them to be competitive, with 14 of them Hillary districts and 7 of them Trump districts.

EDIT: Revised slightly to increase road connectivity within districts.

1. What's that blue speck outside of the Salt Lake County / Summit County continuum? Downtown Ogden I guess?

2. I had never realized how few people live in Southeastern Utah... I thought with this many districts creating a Navajo Nation-based Democratic one would be fairly easy.

3. How close did Evan McMullin come to win any district?

[Former President tack50]

Keeping with the trend of doing the painful small states so you don't have to, here is Vermont. Which can be summed up by paraphrasing Huey Long: "Every precinct a district". This is actually again not an exaggeration, especially in the Burlington area.

At least unlike with Wyoming, Vermont actually has some sensible precinct boundaries, so no non-contiguous districts this time.

However DRA seems to have a bug where some districts disappear when you disable the precinct boundaries so this map will be harder to watch

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec69911d-e73e-4e21-a24b-5030530d2f9b



Again using 2016 presidential numbers, there are:

3 Safe Republican districts (All bordering Canada: 1 in Northern Franklin County, 1 in Northeast Orleans County and the Essex County district)
8 Competitive Trump districts
11 Competitive Clinton districts
64 Safe Democratic districts

The tipping point districts would be District 13 and District 73.

District 73 was 63-37 Clinton and is located on the town of Windsor in Windsor County.
District 13 was 64-38 Clinton and is located just west of Colchester, and seems to be some sort of suburban/exurban Burlington district.

Vermont was 65-35 in the 2 party vote so the tipping points seem to be a couple of points to the right of the state; though obviously still safe D.

[Former President tack50]

And here is North Dakota. Note that I screwed up population distributions (which is easy to do) so there is 1 rural district that has double the pouplation of all the others, but beyond that it should be fairly accurate. It is very hard to keep poulations balanced when a handful of precincts already put you over the line.

Also there were still a couple non-contiguous districts but nothing like what Wyoming had



(click on image to enlarge)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3265ca1d-9b49-452e-84c9-423c3dc548cc

This map has (with 2016 presidential numbers):

3 Safe Democratic districts (2 in downtown Fargo and 1 91% Native American district in Rolette County)
4 Competitive Clinton districts (All in Fargo and its suburbs)
7 competitive Trump districts (4 around Fargo, 2 in downtown Grand Forks and a 55% Native American district in Mountrail County)
74 Safe Republican districts (the rest)

Tipping point districts are district 71 and district 37.

District 71 was 70-30 Trump and is located in Minot
District 37 was 71-29 Trump and comprises the northern rural areas of Grand Forks county and takes in Nelson County as well.

ND was 70-30 Trump so almost no difference between the tipping point and the state at large.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This map has (with 2016 presidential numbers):

3 Safe Democratic districts (2 in downtown Fargo and 1 91% Native American district in Rolette County)
4 Competitive Clinton districts (All in Fargo and its suburbs)
7 competitive Trump districts (4 around Fargo, 2 in downtown Grand Forks and a 55% Native American district in Mountrail County)
74 Safe Republican districts (the rest)

Tipping point districts are district 71 and district 37.

District 71 was 70-30 Trump and is located in Minot
District 37 was 71-29 Trump and comprises the northern rural areas of Grand Forks county and takes in Nelson County as well.

ND was 70-30 Trump so almost no difference between the tipping point and the state at large.

What?? It was 63-27 lol

Is DRA randomly assigning all Johnson voters to Trump?

[Former President tack50]

This map has (with 2016 presidential numbers):

3 Safe Democratic districts (2 in downtown Fargo and 1 91% Native American district in Rolette County)
4 Competitive Clinton districts (All in Fargo and its suburbs)
7 competitive Trump districts (4 around Fargo, 2 in downtown Grand Forks and a 55% Native American district in Mountrail County)
74 Safe Republican districts (the rest)

Tipping point districts are district 71 and district 37.

District 71 was 70-30 Trump and is located in Minot
District 37 was 71-29 Trump and comprises the northern rural areas of Grand Forks county and takes in Nelson County as well.

ND was 70-30 Trump so almost no difference between the tipping point and the state at large.

What?? It was 63-27 lol

Is DRA randomly assigning all Johnson voters to Trump?

DRA seems to be using 2 party numbers for the spreadsheet it generates and that is what I was copying.

63+27=90

63/90= 0.7 = 70%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This map has (with 2016 presidential numbers):

3 Safe Democratic districts (2 in downtown Fargo and 1 91% Native American district in Rolette County)
4 Competitive Clinton districts (All in Fargo and its suburbs)
7 competitive Trump districts (4 around Fargo, 2 in downtown Grand Forks and a 55% Native American district in Mountrail County)
74 Safe Republican districts (the rest)

Tipping point districts are district 71 and district 37.

District 71 was 70-30 Trump and is located in Minot
District 37 was 71-29 Trump and comprises the northern rural areas of Grand Forks county and takes in Nelson County as well.

ND was 70-30 Trump so almost no difference between the tipping point and the state at large.

What?? It was 63-27 lol

Is DRA randomly assigning all Johnson voters to Trump?

DRA seems to be using 2 party numbers for the spreadsheet it generates and that is what I was copying.

63+27=90

63/90= 0.7 = 70%

I guess it makes sense.

However I generally hate "two-party vote share", it feels fake.

[Stuart98]

Here's Utah (with 148 districts, based on the 2019 population estimate)
42 districts voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 106 voted for Donald Trump. DRA considers 21 of them to be competitive, with 14 of them Hillary districts and 7 of them Trump districts.

EDIT: Revised slightly to increase road connectivity within districts.

1. What's that blue speck outside of the Salt Lake County / Summit County continuum? Downtown Ogden I guess?

2. I had never realized how few people live in Southeastern Utah... I thought with this many districts creating a Navajo Nation-based Democratic one would be fairly easy.

3. How close did Evan McMullin come to win any district?

1. The four blue districts a ways North of SLC+Summit are downtown Ogdon, the one in the very top is downtown Logan.
2. San Juan County is fairly evenly split between Native Americans and white people and the white people vote at a higher rate (and vote very Republican); if not for the inclusion of most of Moab the district wouldn't even be light red. A couple years ago (I believe in 2018) the Navajo won a majority of the county council and the white people started talking about splitting the county in two, though nothing came of it.
3. Evan McMullen wins like five districts in the BYU area (including the slightly less red than normal one visible on the map), DRA doesn't display wins by non-major candidates.

[Former President tack50]

I don't know if I will do all states (probably not), but for now here is Alaska (no map pic this time)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d35c75e4-5d36-4922-b7bb-630993682149

A much more competitive state this time, using 2016 presidential numbers:

20 Safe Democratic districts
7 competitive Clinton districts
16 competitive Trump districts
46 Safe Republican districts

The tipping point district is district 31 (somewhere in the Anchorage suburbs), which went 49-39 for Trump. That is actually 5 points to the left of how Alaska at large voted, though it still seems to me that on paper the legislature is safe R (albeit only barely)

Clinton districts:
10 in Metro Anchorage
1 in Metro Fairbanks-North Pole
10 in rural Northern Alaska
6 in the Alaska panhandle

[Former President tack50]

Here is South Dakota. Click on the picture to enlarge



https://davesredistricting.org/join/7db6a7f1-4403-4965-aaeb-06fe35615908

In terms of partisanship using 2016 presidential numbers:

6 Safe Democratic districts
2 competitive Clinton districts
7 competitive Trump districts
78 Safe Republican districts

The 6 Safe Democratic districts are located:
1 covers the town of Vermillion
3 in downtown Sioux Falls
2 rural Native American districts

The further 2 competitive Clinton districts are located also in Sioux Falls

The median district is district 37, covering rural Brookings County and eastern Kingsbury County. This district voted 61-32 Trump, almost perfectly in line with how SD At large voted.

[Hope For A New Era]

Okay, so here's Missouri with 182 districts.

This was a nightmare to do. The Kansas City and St. Louis metros have like 349823049039424309 tiny municipalities, and it takes a lot of creative boundary-drawing to avoid cutting them.

I also worked very hard to avoid cutting rural towns, just because it seems a little ridiculous. Probably like half the time working on this map was spent just trying to figure out how to avoid cutting Richmond, MO in Ray County.

Here's the plain map:



And here's the partisanship map.

Really goes to show just how intense the urban-rural polarization is here. Granted, this is is using 2016 Presidential data, which is when the polarization was at the most intense it has ever been and hopefully the most intense it will ever be, but still.

The blue blob in the middle is a five-way split of Columbia, to try to at least slightlly balance out the extreme efficiency gap that the rural-urban polarization creates. (There's a district in St. Louis on this map that voted literally 98% D in 2016. It's really, really extreme). The lighter red bit in the southwest is a similar three-way split of Springfield (those areas are likely to trend heavily D and turn blue in the future). The same applies to a lot of suburban Kansas City and St. Louis.

[Former President tack50]

Here is Delaware, the final of the small states.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/70f9530d-965e-4403-b4d1-116b7e9e8d50

Using 2016 presidential numbers you get:

56 Safe Democratic districts
7 competitive Clinton districts
6 competitive Trump districts
27 Safe Republican districts

The median district is district 15 or District 27.

Both are located in the suburbs of Wilmington and both went to Clinton by around 54-40. That is slightly more than what Delaware at large went.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Okay, so here's Missouri with 182 districts.

And here's the partisanship map.

Really goes to show just how intense the urban-rural polarization is here. Granted, this is is using 2016 Presidential data, which is when the polarization was at the most intense it has ever been and hopefully the most intense it will ever be, but still.

The blue blob in the middle is a five-way split of Columbia, to try to at least slightlly balance out the extreme efficiency gap that the rural-urban polarization creates. (There's a district in St. Louis on this map that voted literally 98% D in 2016. It's really, really extreme). The lighter red bit in the southwest is a similar three-way split of Springfield (those areas are likely to trend heavily D and turn blue in the future). The same applies to a lot of suburban Kansas City and St. Louis.

The geographic polarization of Missouri is stunning.

I find especially fascinating (although it is not completely related) how you can almost perfectly see the boundaries of the current 1st congressional district in your map by taking all the dark blue districts in the St. Louis area.

[Former President tack50]

Here is Montana, the first of the triple digit states



(click to enlarge)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4db97353-6b28-482f-b092-9c1822270e22

This map has, per 2016 President:

21 Safe Democratic districts
5 Competitive Clinton districts
4 competitive Trump districts
70 Safe Republican districts

Of course this is Montana so I imagine that many of the "Safe Republican" districts would not be that safe.

As I often do for the minority party, here are the location of the 26 Clinton districts:

8 in Missoula
6 in Bozeman
3 in Butte
3 in Helena
2 in Billings
1 in Whitefish
1 Native American district in Glacier County
1 Native American district in Big Horn County
1 Deer Lodge County district

The median districts are district 62 and district 52.

District 62 is a northwestern suburb of Bozeman and went 59-33 Trump.
District 52 is a western suburb of Great Falls and went 60-34 Trump.

These are both roughly 6 points to the right of Montana at large, so winning a majority would be very tough for Dems, even if MT is very elastic downballot

For the record, in 2018 Tester wins 47 districts and Maryland Matt wins 53.

[bagelman]

I made RI for the heck of it

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1a9f5cf9-d7f5-4cd8-b43b-df27dc260ee6