Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[palandio]

Orban-style electoral law

Well, to me the Hungarian electoral law seems to be as democratic as the electoral laws of developed democracies like the US, UK, Canada (FPTP), France (majoritarian with run-off) and Germany (effectively proportional). Calling it Orban-style associates it with Orban's authoritarian tendencies, but it is not some evil, manipulative trick engineered by Orban, it is just the Hungarian electoral law. It is not the electoral law's fault that the Hungarian opposition is unable to mount a cohesive, competitive challenge. I completely agree that Orban's regime is not a full democracy under every aspect, because democracy does not just mean the rule of the majority. But Orban would get a solid majority under many different electoral laws.

Regarding Italy I prefer electoral laws with (local) run-offs (or IRV, AV etc.) over FPTP. Incidentially Hungary does have run-offs.

(And yes, the proposed Rosatellum is much closer to the Mattarellum than to the German system.)

[Diouf]

Orban-style electoral law

Well, to me the Hungarian electoral law seems to be as democratic as the electoral laws of developed democracies like the US, UK, Canada (FPTP), France (majoritarian with run-off) and Germany (effectively proportional). Calling it Orban-style associates it with Orban's authoritarian tendencies, but it is not some evil, manipulative trick engineered by Orban, it is just the Hungarian electoral law. It is not the electoral law's fault that the Hungarian opposition is unable to mount a cohesive, competitive challenge. I completely agree that Orban's regime is not a full democracy under every aspect, because democracy does not just mean the rule of the majority. But Orban would get a solid majority under many different electoral laws.

Regarding Italy I prefer electoral laws with (local) run-offs (or IRV, AV etc.) over FPTP. Incidentially Hungary does have run-offs.

(And yes, the proposed Rosatellum is much closer to the Mattarellum than to the German system.)

I fully agree with all of this. The Hungarian electoral system is not worse than FPTP for example.  It is just a small attempt to "spin back" against the PD with its German style nonsense. The Hungarian comparison then has the added benefit of being much more accurate

[palandio]

Yes, I completely agree with you. The PD when talking about its newest electoral law innovations tends to come up with the dumbest comparisons like "It's like the Spanish electoral law, except for being completely different". And now it's German style because "German style" sounds so efficient, developed and functional. You're completely right when you are trolling them for that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The new proposal is probably crap, but I'll take crap as long as it gives us a clear majority in the next election. We can't afford another Grand Coalition.

[Diouf]

It seems like FI and M5S can succesfully push PD to adapt an actual German-style electoral system. Great of them to take the PD-spin and turn into reality. It still seems like there are some differences, like whether there should there be a majority bonus at 40%, but hopefully an agreement can be reached.

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2017/05/29/pd-fi-m5s-working-on-election-law-deal_bbaefa06-5a8c-4c9a-9dfc-1194ecc050b1.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh Christ. Permanent grand coalition, here we go...

[SPQR]

What an utter disgrace.

[pikachu]

http://www.politico.eu/article/italian-parliament-sets-early-election-in-motion/

Are elections this year actually a possibility this year or is Politico just trying to get clicks? Also, out of curiosity, does anyone know the last time when the Big 4 had GEs in the same year?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Conventional wisdom right now is that the election will be held in October - but that's conditional on the electoral reform actually passing (which ain't done till it's done).

[SPQR]

Conventional wisdom right now is that the election will be held in October - but that's conditional on the electoral reform actually passing (which ain't done till it's done).

And just this morning it seems that the electoral reform won't pass, after a few messy votes in the Lower House.

[Zanas]

Also, out of curiosity, does anyone know the last time when the Big 4 had GEs in the same year?

Of course if you ask questions like that you'll have me spend 15 min to find out. That would be 1924. Of course one of those was a bit... questionable.

[SPQR]

Yesterday there was the 1st round of local elections, with a few important cities voting (Genoa, Palermo, Parma, Verona amongst them).

The M5S is out of all the 2nd rounds, even in places where it should have done very well like Palermo (it's very strong in Sicily) and Genoa (Grillo's hometown).
And even more ironically, Pizzarotti (the Parma mayor who has been kicked out of the Movement because of his critical stance towards Grillo) has reached the second round quite comfortably.

[Andrea]

The picture is very fragmented. In many towns the candidate leading doesn't reach the 40%.
I think run offs will be very open and unpredictable in many places

Out of the provinces head towns, only Cuneo (PD) and Frosinone (centre-right) elected the mayor on the first round.

Maybe Palermo too as they have a different electoral law (the first round winner only requires 40% to avoid the run off). Orlando is projected over it but the count is so slow. Barely half of polling stations reported after 10 hours!

Tosi's wife goes to second round in Verona with Lega official candidate.

Forza Italia/Lega leading PD in Genova 38/39% to 33/34%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

anyone but grillo seems like a healthy result for now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, don't abandon us, Genova...

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Berlusconi bloc candidates ahead in Genoa, Verona mayoral elections, according to first exit polls broadcast on RAI and LA7 television networks.

[Andrea]

Genova is going to FI/Lega. So far (2/3 counted) it's 55-45%, not even close

Pizzarotti confirmed comfortably in Parma. With 162 /207 polling stations counted he's at 57.9%

PD is losing almost everything at moment.
They are ahead in Lucca and Padova. Behind in Pistoia, La Spazia, Piacenza, etc

[Mike88]

Hmmm... So things don't look good for Renzi? Could we see a resurrection of Berlusconi or will it be chaos as usual?

[jaichind]

Looks like an Independent candidate is ahead in Parma

[Andrea]

Looks like an Independent candidate is ahead in Parma

He's the incumbent mayor, last time he was elected for the 5 Stars. He had some fallouts with Grillo during these 5 years.

[Andrea]

Lecce is providing a WTF result given the first round and the national picture.

FI/Lega gain Pistoia


PD lose Piacenza to FI/Lega

PD hold gain  Padova

[jaichind]

It does seem that the center-left did pick up Verona from the center-right

[Andrea]

It does seem that the center-left did pick up Verona from the center-right

centre-left didn't reach second round in Verona.

FI-Lega-FdI candidate wins over Tosi's wife/girlfriend (Tosi is the former Verona Lega Nord mayor)


Centre-left hold Taranto

Centre-right takes L'Aquila, Como, Monza, La Spezia, Asti, Alessandria.

[jaichind]

It does seem that the center-left did pick up Verona from the center-right

centre-left didn't reach second round in Verona.

FI-Lega-FdI candidate wins over Tosi's wife/girlfriend (Tosi is the former Verona Lega Nord mayor)

Oh.  I misread the results.  My fault. BTW, it seems that M5S did not do that well in the first round.  Is M5S weaker in these cities or are M5S just weaker in these local races and stronger in national races.

[Andrea]

PD survive in Lucca: 50.5 to 49.5%